Here are five things we've gleaned from the 2013 baseball season, now that 31 MLB clubs (White Sox excluded) have passed the midpoint mark:
(All stats/comments through July 2)
Even if Davis were to replicate his scintillating first-half numbers (28 homers, 74 RBI, 56 runs) for July through September, he would still fall short of the gold-standard marks for Maris (61 homers in 1961), Bonds (73, uh, homers in 2001), Wilson (191 RBI in 1930) and Ramirez (165 RBI in 1999 — most since 1939).
Davis' above stats are through the Orioles' first 81 games — he played in 80. The slugger added three more homers in the next three games and is batting .329 with 31 home runs and 80 RBI through July 2.
As such, Miguel Cabrera (26 homers, 85 RBI, 65 runs, .368 batting) probably has better odds of collecting back-to-back Triple Crowns — in the AL — than Davis launching 60 dingers.
That's just how it is, especially for a veteran (Davis) who's only two homers and five RBI from eclipsing his own career highs.
At his current rate, Davis is averaging 0.38 homers at Camden Yards this season. Extrapolating that over 38 more home games, he's conservatively earmarked for an additional 14.4 blasts at Baltimore (30 total).
Throw in a tough road schedule that includes 10 games at Kansas City, Arizona and San Francisco — three of baseball's most power-deflating parks — and Davis will most likely miss out on a season for all time.
That said, Brady Anderson's franchise mark of 50 homers (1996) is certainly within reach.
It's very risky to brazenly doubt a club that just won nine straight (June 20-30) and owns the best record in baseball (51-31). But here goes:
Among NL teams, Pittsburgh pitching impressively ranks either first, second or third in ERA, strikeouts, saves and WHIP. However, it still won't be enough to help the Bucs take division honors, short of Jason Grilli (more on him later) flirting with 55 saves by season's end.
The rationale is simple: Among the NL squads, the Pirates currently rank fifth in homers (83), eighth in triples (13), ninth in slugging (.391), 11th in runs (321), RBI (227), on-base percentage (.308) and OPS (.698) and 12th in hits and batting average (.241).
From a close-game perspective, typically a red-letter stat for teams experiencing special seasons, the Pirates are just 15-10 with games decided by one run — a good, but hardly championship-worthy result.
Regarding the schedule, Pittsburgh has two road trips of nine games or more left on the docket. From a competitive standpoint, the club has 19 remaining against St. Louis and Cincinnati — including a season-ending roadie with the Reds (Sept. 27-29).
Back to Grilli (27 saves, 1.72 ERA, 0.85 WHIP), the top-ranked closer in fantasy circles ...
Heading into the 2013 campaign, Grilli (lifetime ERA/WHIP of 4.14 and 1.37) had fewer career saves (five) than career stops in the major leagues (six — Marlins, White Sox, Tigers, Rockies, Rangers, Pirates).
It's not a sign of doom, but when judging the Pirates, they resemble a club that's more apt to take baby steps forward ... instead of level-jumping from perennial also-ran to World Series prominence.
On the positive side, Pittsburgh is a lead-pipe cinch to break the ignominious streak of 20 losing campaigns.
Logic dictates that a club 20 games above .500 on July 2 should be in the black on Sept. 29.
History dictates it, as well.
The above statement is hardly a revelation, given how middling assets like Brett Gardner (seven homers, 31 RBI, .283 batting), Vernon Wells (.228 batting, .266 OBP), Lyle Overbay (nine homers, .240 batting, .282 OBP), Jayson Nix (two homers, .236 batting) and Travis Hafner (.219 batting) have all logged 200-plus at-bats for this franchise in flux.
Plus, for the first three months (April/May/June), the Yankees scored five or more runs only 25 times ... compared to the Tigers (41 times), Athletics (39) and Rays (36) in that same span.
But it goes deeper than New York's lineup of castoffs and retreads.
Of the five rotational pitchers, only Hiroki Kuroda (7-6, 2.95 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) has an ERA below 3.00. As a group during June, the Yankees posted uninspiring numbers: ERA (4.38), WHIP (1.34) and opponents' batting average (.266).
In fairness to the Yanks (44-39), neither Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez nor Mark Teixeira have had a single at-bat this year; and the American League East — with just one below-.500 team (Blue Jays) — is unquestionably the best division, top to bottom.
It's merely a solemn reminder that all things must pass — even dynasties.
The well is beginning to run dry at this position:
Only four regular second basemen have notched 45 or more RBI (Brandon Phillips, Jason Kipnis, Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia).
Only five regulars, with 200 at-bats, currently have averages above .300 (Pedroia, Marco Scutaro, Omar Infante, Matt Carpenter, Howard Kendrick).
Only five regulars boast double-digit homers (Cano, Dan Uggla, Kipnis, Phillips, Chase Utley).
Only six regulars have tallied double-digit steals (Kipnis, Jose Altuve, Emilio Bonifacio, Elliot Johnson, D.J. LeMahieu, Pedroia).
And when surveying Cano's seasonal numbers (20 HR, 54 RBI, 49 runs, five steals, .295 average), that leads to the uncomfortable notion of, Would the Yankees, Dodgers or any other free-spending team really give the 30-year-old Cano a six- or seven-year contract, given his notorious hot-and-cold patterns?
The cock-eyed optimist, notably Jay-Z's Roc Nation agency, would point to Cano averaging 29 homers, 102 RBI, 104 runs and .312 batting from 2009-12.
The pessimist, in turn,would express concerns of handing a market-altering deal to a player through his mid-to-late 30s ... with thoughts of a declining Albert Pujols on the brain.
The contentious 1994 strike between the owners and players did far more damage than good — denying Matt Williams (43 homers on Aug. 12) and Ken Griffey Jr. (40 homers) a run at Roger Maris's glorious record and precluding the Montreal Expos (74-40, first in the NL East) from reaching their first World Series in franchise history.
(Who knows, maybe the Expos even stay in Canada, post-championship?)
Plus, the strike carried over into the 1995 season, further alienating a segment of MLB fans who swore they'd never return as blind supporters.
But there was one big positive from the '94 ordeal: The baseball powers-at-be weren't subjected to the woeful race in the AL West, where the Rangers (division leaders at 52-62), Athletics (51-63), Mariners (49-63) and Angels (47-68) all had sub-.500 records of 10 games or more. Yikes!
(In case you're wondering, only six MLB teams since '69 have captured division crowns, during full seasons, with 84 victories or less — the 1973 Mets, '84 Royals, '97 Astros, '05 Padres, '06 Cardinals and '08 Dodgers.)
Fast forward to the present, as Arizona (42-41) tenuously leads the sloppy, yet competitive West, with the defending champion Giants (39-44) in fifth place, but just three games out of first.
It's worth noting the Diamondbacks (18-19 in the division) are 15-2 in games with Patrick Corbin (9-1, 2.49 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) taking the mound ... and only 27-39 in every other outing.
