Fantasy Fox: Pre-draft look at fantasy football's top 100 playmakers
The Fantasy Fox happily offers his early, early look at the Top 100 playmakers for the 2015 fantasy season, excluding kickers, defenses and special teams.
For obvious reasons, the list doesn't include any prospective rookies from the 2015 draft class -- particularly the bumper crop of stars-in-waiting at tailback (Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, Jay Ajayi, Ameer Abdullah, Duke Johnson, Tevin Coleman, Todd Gurley, Jeremy Langford, etc.) or receiver (Amari Cooper, Kevin White, DeVante Parker).
1-20
1. RB Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
2. RB Arian Foster, Texans
3. RB DeMarco Murray, Eagles
4. WR Antonio Brown, Steelers
5. RB Eddie Lacy, Packers
6. RB LeSean McCoy, Bills
7. RB Adrian Peterson, Vikings (Cowboys? Cardinals?)
8. RB Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
9. WR Odell Beckham Jr., Giants
10. QB Andrew Luck, Colts
11. WR Jordy Nelson, Packers
12. WR Dez Bryant, Cowboys
13. RB Le'Veon Bell, Steelers
14. WR Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
15. QB Aaron Rodgers, Packers
16. WR T.Y. Hilton, Colts
17. RB Matt Forte, Bears
18. QB Peyton Manning, Broncos
19. RB Jeremy Hill, Bengals
20. WR Calvin Johnson, Lions
BREAKDOWN
1. The following declaration cannot be overstated: If you have the means to move down in Round 1 this summer ... it'll be worth it in 99 percent of trade scenarios!
The rationale: Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster might be superb assets at 1 and 2, respectively, but they hold simlar pre-draft value to Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Eddie Lacy and LeSean McCoy -- the Bills' new savior at tailback.
Why not hedge your bets with one of the above superstars at the end of Round 1 ... with the intent of early drafting in Round 2?
2. In a perfect world (for fantasy owners), Le'Veon Bell would have been a healthy lock to replicate last year's scintillating numbers (2,215 total yards, 11 TDs).
But a three-game suspension to start the season has curtailed that notion. Instead, we're probably looking at 1,500 total yards and maybe nine touchdowns.
I can live with that in the top-third of Round 2 (12-team leagues).
3. Of his last 39 games, dating back to Thanksgiving Weekend 2012, Jamaal Charles (1,324 total yards, 14 TDs last year) has amassed 100 total yards and/or one TD 29 times.
On the flip side, he didn't accomplish the feat in Kansas City's final three outings last season.
4. There's a school of thought that Foster -- who turns 29 in August -- may hit the proverbial wall this season, the combination of age, nagging injuries and general wear and tear (average yearly workload since 2010: 311 touches).
But I'm not ready to throw the bearded baby out with the bath water just yet.
Foster was redoubtably the most valuable fantasy asset last October, rolling for 140-plus total yards three times and racking up three outings of multiple touchdowns.
All told, Foster averaged 150 total yards and two TDs during that span.
5. Aaron Rodgers may be the reigning MVP and a lock for 4,700 yards passing/40 total TDs, when healthy. But it's still hard to pull the trigger in Round 1.
Rodgers passed for fewer than 230 yards six times last season ... while tallying only 10 TDs in those outings.
6. There's a temptation to rank Odell Beckham Jr. above Antonio Brown here, given the absurd stats from his rookie campaign -- 91 catches, 1,305 yards, 12 TDs in just 12 games.
However, I also live in fear of the sophomore slump, or least a watered-down version of that time-tested notion for Beckham.
The rationale: Opposing defensive coordinators will have all spring and summer to devise ways to hinder Beckham. Plus, tailbacks Rashad Jennings and new acquisition Shane Vereen both have the capacity for 100 total yards every Sunday.
The safe play calls for Beckham to be a mid-to-late Round 1 pick in standard-scoring leagues.
For PPR drafts, though ... go ahead and OBJ him in the first four selections.
21-40
21. WR Julio Jones, Falcons
22. QB Drew Brees, Saints
23. TE Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
24. WR Alshon Jeffery, Bears
25. QB Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
26. WR A.J. Green, Bengals
27. WR Randall Cobb, Packers
28. RB C.J. Anderson, Broncos
29. QB Cam Newton, Panthers
30. RB Alfred Morris, Redskins
31. WR Jeremy Maclin, Chiefs
32. TE Jimmy Graham, Seahawks
33. WR DeAndre Hopkins, Texans
34. QB Russell Wilson, Seahawks
35. WR Mike Evans, Buccaneers
36. RB Andre Ellington, Cardinals
37. RB Mark Ingram, Saints
38. WR Keenan Allen, Chargers
39. RB Rashad Jennings, Giants
40. QB Philip Rivers, Chargers
BREAKDOWN
1. At first blush, it's insulting that Drew Brees (four straight seasons of 4,900-plus yards passing) would be a Round 3 pick.
But right now, with a receiving corps comprising Brandin Cooks (more on him later), Marques Colston, Jalen Saunders and little else of fantasy consequence (read: no Jimmy Graham) ... it's best to hold tight until the end of Round 2.
And if you're jonesing for a quarterback at that time, Ben Roethlisberger (flanked by high-end assets Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell, Martavis Bryant) may be the more palatable option.
2. I will be shocked if a healthy Alshon Jeffery (two-year averages of 87 catches/1,277 yards/8 TDs) doesn't finish with 1,300 yards and 10 TDs -- as the No. 1 option in the Bears' passing game. Finally!
3. The 25-30 range seems like a good neighborhood for the Broncos' starting running back -- whether it's C.J. Anderson, Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman or Juwan Thompson.
Of his final nine games last season (including the playoffs), Anderson averaged 127 total yards and 1.1 TDs. Within that span, he also produced multiple outings of three touchdowns.
4. I have Mike Evans (68 catches, 1,051 yards, 12 TDs as a rookie) 26 slots below Odell Beckham, which may qualify as a fantasy sin, given the following stat:
During a six-game stretch last season (Weeks 8-13), the rookie Evans averaged five catches, 10 targets, 100 yards and 1.3 TDs -- a time when Tampa Bay scored more than 17 points just once.
5. It's funny. Jeremy Maclin (85 catches/1,310 yards/10 TDs last year) has nothing to do with the Chiefs' god-awful drought of 20 games without netting a touchdown from a wide receiver (a cold snap that dates back to early December 2013).
And yet, he's paying the price for Kansas City's porous track record with wideouts.
In other words, on any other team, Maclin would be a cinch for Round 3 in standard-scoring leagues.
41-60
41. QB Matt Ryan, Falcons
42. WR Sammy Watkins, Bills
43. RB Doug Martin, Buccaneers
44. QB Tom Brady, Patriots
45. WR Brandon Marshall, Jets
46. QB Matthew Stafford, Lions
47. RB Justin Forsett, Ravens
48. QB Tony Romo, Cowboys
49. WR Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers
50. QB Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
51. WR Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos
52. RB Lamar Miller, Dolphins
53. RB Joique Bell, Lions
54. WR Martavis Bryant, Steelers
55. TE Greg Olsen, Panthers
56. QB Eli Manning, Giants
57. WR DeSean Jackson, Redskins
58. RB Frank Gore, Colts
59. QB Sam Bradford, Eagles
60. WR Jordan Matthews, Eagles
BREAKDOWN
1. Sammy Watkins (65 catches, 982 yards, 6 TDs) would have a higher ranking here, if Matt Cassel and E.J. Manuel weren't the primary quarterbacks in Buffalo.
Even for his dream season of 2010 with the Chiefs (3,116 yards passing, 27 TDs), Cassel still wasn't a 60-percent passer.
2. On the surface, Justin Forsett (1,529 total yards/8 TDs with the Ravens last year) shouldn't have a lower ranking than Doug Martin.
However, I'm convinced Tampa Bay will recommit to a power-rushing attack in 2015 -- spearheaded by Martin and Charles Sims -- regardless of who's logging snaps at quarterback (Mike Glennon, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota).
3. Conservatively speaking, I have Martavis Bryant tabbed as the third-best No. 2 receiver in fantasy.
Yes, the rookie exploded for six touchdowns in his first four games last season. But the final push was somewhat troubling, as Bryant averaged only 1.8 catches, 3.0 targets, 32 yards and 0.3 TDs in his last three regular-season outings.
61-80
61. WR Andre Johnson, Colts
62. QB Joe Flacco, Ravens
63. WR Brandin Cooks, Saints
64. RB Gio Bernard, Bengals
65. WR Julian Edelman, Patriots
66. QB Colin Kaepernick, 49ers
67. RB LeGarrette Blount, Patriots
68. RB Tre Mason, Rams
69. QB Andy Dalton, Bengals
70. WR Golden Tate, Lions
71. TE Jordan Cameron, Dolphins
72. RB Isaiah Crowell, Browns
73. QB Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings
74. WR Mike Wallace, Vikings
75. RB Darren McFadden, Cowboys
76. WR Vincent Jackson, Buccaneers
77. WR Jarvis Landry, Dolphins
78. RB Latavius Murray, Raiders
79. RB Chris Ivory, Jets
80. QB Jay Cutler, Bears
BREAKDOWN
1. For standard-scoring leagues, it's too early to assign a definitive ranking to Andre Johnson (now with the Colts).
He's a good candidate to match or surpass last year's tallies with catches (85), receiving yards (936) and targets (146) ... but let's see how Indy's draft shakes out before doling out promises of Round 5 or better.
2. Brandin Cooks would be an amazing Round 6 asset in standard-scoring leagues. (Note: He'll never get past Round 4 in PPR drafts.)
Of his 10 games as a rookie, Cooks collected seven-plus targets six times; the Saints wideot also found the end zone twice in his final four outings.
What's more, Cooks hit the fantasy jackpot during the offseason -- citing the triple result of Jimmy Graham getting traded to Seattle, Kenny Stills being shipped to Miami and Marques Colston simply getting another year older.
3. Here's some insight on Tre Mason's middling ranking:
a) After Mason carved up the Raiders defense for 135 total yards (117 rushing) and three touchdowns last November ... the Rams rookie subsequently averaged 59 total yards/0.3 TDs in his final four outings.
b) Zac Stacy (1,114 total yards/8 TDs in 2013 ... before floundering in 2014) still has the goods to usurp Mason as the Rams' primary rusher -- or at least foster a 50/50 touches split.
c) I wouldn't be shocked if St. Louis snagged Todd Gurley (Georgia) or Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin) early in the draft -- the two blockbuster backs of a stellar 2015 class.
81-100
81. WR Torrey Smith, 49ers
82. QB Ryan Mallett, Texans
83. WR Eric Decker, Jets
84. RB Carlos Hyde, 49ers
85. WR Kendall Wright, Titans
86. QB Carson Palmer, Cardinals
87. TE Travis Kelce, Chiefs
88. RB Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
89. QB Mike Glennon, Buccaneers
90. QB Alex Smith, Chiefs
91. TE Jordan Reed, Redskins
92. WR Steve Smith, Ravens
93. WR Michael Floyd, Cardinals
94. QB Nick Foles, Rams
95. WR Brandon LaFell, Patriots
96. QB Derek Carr, Raiders
97. RB Bishop Sankey, Titans
98. WR Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
99. RB Darren Sproles, Eagles
100. RB C.J. Spiller, Saints
Jay Clemons, the 2008 Fantasy Football Writer of the Year (Fantasy Sports Writers Association) and a 2015 finalist for Sports Blog Of The Year (Cynopsis Media), can be reached via Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.
