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Fantasy Football: Week 1 NFL Daily Fantasy Picks

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Playing daily fantasy football in week 1 of the 2016 NFL Season? Read these DFS suggestions before you set your FanDuel or Draft Kings lineup.

Aug 27, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) warms up prior to the game against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Early September is finally here and that brings on many new things. The weather starts to turn as we progress from summer to fall and the kids are back in school. It also signifies the return of the almighty NFL.  Football season is said to be the “greatest” time of the year by many as we prepare for 17 weeks of steady dating with our couch.

It’s an exciting time for so many reasons with my personal favorite being the start of the great fake football season, fantasy.

If you play in a season long league, you likely got together with your buddies for the annual draft party. Some of you drafted online, maybe you met up at Buffalo Wild Wings and held a draft party there like one of my leagues did this season. This is generally one of the most fun parts of playing fantasy football and gets the blood flowing for opening day.

The anticipation and build up for fantasy football is second to none in the world of sports. The NBA and MLB cannot compete with the NFL in a number of areas and fantasy football is one of them.

Season long leagues are a ton of fun, but a new trend in fantasy has emerged the past few years. The “daily” fantasy game is making its bid at being the premier way to watch the NFL and at the same time test your knowledge as a GM for a week while at the same time playing for money. You can find leagues for as little as 25 cents all the way up into the thousands.

I spent last season writing a weekly column focused on the best plays for a given week in the NFL. I will be doing the same thing this season using Fanduel as a reference while also using their salaries as a guide. This year I will be shifting my focus slightly as I want to find the “lesser known” plays of the week that will help you win those big tournaments. Sure, I can sit here and tell you to play Aaron Rodgers, Todd Gurley and Julio Jones this week, but don’t you already know that?

Week One provides an opportunity for some great values while also leaving us with so many questions as players, coaches, and schemes change from year to year. I will try to give you a guide and point you in the right direction this weekend to get you off to a profitable start.

With all of that being said, let’s take a look at the players I like for Week One.

DISCLAIMER – Salary cap numbers are based on FanDuel’s pricing for this week.

Aug 27, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) signals from the line against the Tennessee Titans during the first half at Oakland-Alameda Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

QUARTERBACK

Derek Carr ($7700) Raiders @ Saints – Carr enters year three as the starting QB of the Oakland Raiders after taking a big step up last season. The Raiders continue to build talent around this young arm and this season is setting up to be a 4,000 yard plus campaign. In week one, Carr gets one of the best match ups possible, visiting the Saints. Not only did the Saints defense surrender the most fantasy points to opposing quarterback’s last season, they did virtually nothing to improve their defense this off season. Carr had 9 games last season with at least 275 yards and 2 TD’s, he should get that easily in week one.

Dak Prescott ($5000) Cowboys vs. Giants – Since Fanduel put their NFL contests out about a month prior to the season starting, their pricing hasn’t been touched since. Prescott heads into week one at true minimum salary on FanDuel as he wasn’t scheduled to start when the pricing was set. Dak was setting the preseason world on fire before Tony Romo shockingly (sarcasm) got hurt and now gets a chance to make the Cowboys forget about him for good. Part of the daily game is just finding value with players salaries as using Dak opens up the ability to pretty much play what you want. The Giants were bottom five against the pass last season so this isn’t a defense to be feared. The Cowboys will admittedly be using a conservative game plan with their rookie in week one and will likely lean on Ezekiel Elliott.  However, for this price, Prescott really only needs to get about 15 fantasy points to have a monster day at this salary. Throw in his ability to gain yards on the ground with a great offensive line to protect him, he is a safe but unspectacular play this Sunday.

Andrew Luck ($8700) Colts vs. Lions – Luck had a season to forget last year ending after only 7 games due to injury. This season he comes in as a forgotten man and has also had some limited practices this week. This Colts vs. Lions game has the makings of a shootout with Detroit getting a ton of hype facing a banged up secondary in Indy. Although I get the hype on Detroit, there are two sides to a shootout and I think Luck will fly way under the radar this Sunday. The Detroit defense is stout up front, but still has some question marks in the secondary. Luck has two great weapons in Moncrief and T.Y. Hilton at his disposal and should fine plenty of success through the air in week 1. I love Stafford and the Lions as well, but Luck should be much lower owned and has a chance to put up some monster totals.

Others I Like – Matthew Stafford ($7400), Tyrod Taylor ($7200), Marcus Mariota ($7500)

Aug 14, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Houston Texans running back Lamar Miller (26) runs the ball against the San Francisco 49ers in the second quarter at Levi

RUNNING BACK

Ryan Mathews ($6100) Eagles vs. Browns – The Eagles are heading into week one rolling with Carson Wentz at QB, a unproven rookie who missed most of the preseason with injury. Mathews has been a polarizing figure in season long fantasy the last few years, a guy that consistently produces when given the opportunity yet consistently gets injured in the process.  Mathews has three things going for him in week 1, he is healthy, he isn’t sharing carries with DeMarco Murray, and he will be heavily used as both a runner and receiver. Oh yeah, the Browns run defense surrendered nearly 130 yards per game last season. Mathews was given one start in 2015 and ended up with 28 touches for 138 total yards. Look for the Eagles to go to him early and often in this one and $6100 is just too cheap.

Lamar Miller ($7600) Texans vs. Bears – Miller averaged 5.1 yards per carry in 2014 and 4.5 in 2015 yet the Dolphins let him tote the rock 20 times only once all of last season. Matter of fact, there was 6 games last year where he had less than 10 carries and none of that was due to injury. He moved over to Houston this off season, a team that has not been shy in their plans to let him be their workhorse back. They take on a bad Bears defense that was virtually nondescript in every area last season. If Miller is able to get 20 carries and add 4-5 receptions, he should find the end zone and put up a monster week 1 performance while still being priced down from the elite options.

Christine Michael ($4800) Seahawks vs. Dolphins – Whenever I start my research each week, I like to look at which teams surrendered the most fantasy points to each position last season. The Dolphins made the list having allowed more points than any other team but the 49ers, who were dreadful last season. Having said that, it only makes sense to take a look at RB’s from the teams they are facing this weekend. Michael checks in at a true bottom of the barrel price tag and is rumored to be used as the “feature” back this weekend while Thomas Rawls continues to recover from injury. The sample size is extremely limited, however Michael did put up a 100 yard day last January against a tough Arizona defense while filling in for Rawls. There is risk here as we don’t know exactly how the carries will be doled out. However, at $4800 in a match up against a bad defense and a chance for 20 touches, its hard to pass on him in tournaments.

Others I Like – Spencer Ware ($5400), LeSean McCoy ($6900), DeAngelo Williams ($7100)

Jan 3, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Detroit Lions tight end Timothy Wright (83) celebrates with wide receiver Golden Tate (15) after scoring a touchdown against the Chicago Bears during the first half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

WIDE RECEIVER

Golden Tate ($6900) Lions @ Colts – The preseason hype machine is a funny thing in DFS. Marvin Jones has been the talk of the community the past few weeks and for good reason. He takes over as the #2 option in a passing offense playing against a team missing two of their best corners and is sitting near minimum price on nearly every site. I love Marvin Jones this week and I encourage you to have him in your lineups. However, the thing that so many forget is that a guy like Tate has just as many positive checks next to his name and very well could be a far better points producer this weekend. Over the last two seasons in games that Calvin Johnson didn’t play, Tate averaged over 8 catches per game for an average of 100 yards per game. He also caught 7 touchdowns during that span. Don’t forget about Tate in what should be a high scoring affair.

Amari Cooper ($7100) Raiders @ Saints – If you read the above section about Derek Carr you already know the numbers of the Saints secondary. They are absolutely nothing to be feared and have no problem giving up yards in bunches. I love Cooper this season as he continues to grow into one of the best receivers in football, a 1,000 yard producer as a rookie. The one knock on Cooper last season was his lack of touchdowns and I think that script gets flipped this season as he will be used more often in the red zone in year two. I don’t think the Saints have a prayer to slow down the Raiders and Cooper will be a huge part of that.

Mike Evans ($7900) Buccaneers @ Falcons – Evans comes into week 1 priced down quite a bit from the other elite options at the receiver position. Much of this is likely due to the drop in touchdown’s from year 1 to year 2 for Evans. At 6′ 5″, he is an impossible cover near the goal line and he proved that with 12 touchdowns his rookie season. He somehow only caught 3 TD’s last year despite accumulating over 1200 yards. The Bucs have come out and said they plan to go back to using his height to their advantage and I expect the TD’s to return this season. Look for Evans to put up top 5 numbers this week as the Atlanta corners have no chance to slow him down.

Others I Like – Donte Moncrief ($6200), Marvin Jones ($5500), Brandin Cooks ($7600)

Aug 19, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten (82) is tackled by Miami Dolphins outside linebacker Jelani Jenkins (53) in the first quarter at AT&T Stadium. Dallas won 41-14. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

TIGHT END

Jason Witten ($5500) Cowboys vs. Giants – You might be thinking to yourself, isn’t Witten washed up and no longer an elite TE? While its true that the past two seasons his numbers were sharply off those of the prior “elite” years, he still caught 77 balls last season. If there is one thing that we know about rookie QB’s, they tend to play it safe and trust in their TE’s and RB’s to complete short passes and play it safe. Witten is priced as the 12th TE this week below guys like Zach Ertz and Gary Barnidge. I think he is about as safe as they get to catch 5-7 passes. If Dak takes a shot with him in the red zone, it could be a great day. The Giants allowed the second most points to the TE position last season.

Jesse James ($4500) Steelers @ Redskins – This is not the reality TV version of Jesse James but the 6’7″ TE weapon that will be used frequently by Big Ben this season. James, also known as the Outlaw, was used heavily in the preseason and showed his red zone ability catching a touchdown in their week 3 game. Much of the focus will be to slow down Antonio Brown, which should open up the middle for James to produce in week 1.

Others I Like – Jared Cook ($5300), Martellus Bennett ($5100)

KICKER

For some reason FanDuel still includes the kicker spot while many other daily fantasy sites have dropped it. I will make it simple for you, play a kicker from an offense you like with a salary that works with the rest of your team.

DEFENSE

Philadephia Eagles ($4800) – The Eagles are certainly not a highly-rated defense by most conventional standards struggling both stopping the run and the pass last season. However, their front line is dangerous and they face one of the most talent devoid teams in all of football in week one. RGIII is trying to resurrect his career in Cleveland, but the sledding will be tough in week one. I like the Eagles to force multiple turnovers in this contest easily paying off their modest salary.

Others I Like – Seattle Seahawks ($5000). Arizona Cardinals ($5000)

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