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DraftKings Early MLB Picks For August 31

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Sep 12, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; A general view of the DraftKings sign board during the match with FC Dallas playing against New York City FC at Toyota Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

DraftKings Early MLB Picks For August 31

There are six afternoon games today, giving us a nice balance to the tournaments. Two aces take the hill during the matinee session. Should we try for both of them since DraftKings has two pitcher slots, or should we find bargains and pay for hitters? Should we use two from the middle tier? Let’s check the past stats for some help.

NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.

Ross Stripling and Jeff Hoffman have never faced each other, or the opposing team. This is going to be a high scoring affair at Coors this afternoon. The only part you want of this is stacking hitters from both sides.

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Aug 4, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Drew Smyly (33) throws a pitch during the second inning against the Kansas City Royals at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Best Bet:

Drew Smyly ($6,700): Yes, Smyly is cheap. Yes, Smyly is facing Boston. I realize all of this. However, his career numbers against Boston are elite. The Sox are hitting only .182 against Smyly in 110 at bats with three homers, only six runs, and a staggering 43 strikeouts. No matter how you look at this, the past number are elite. He has faced Boston once this year. On April 19th, Smyly pitched eight shutout innings in Boston, giving up just one hit and two walks to 11 strikeouts.

Honorable Mention:

Steven Wright ($9,400): Wright has never faced the Rays, but four of their current players have faced him. They are 3-10 with a solo homer and two strikeouts. The Rays have struck out a whole lot this year, but can a knuckleballer really rack up the strikeouts? DraftKings already adjusted his price to the Rays’ free swinging ways, meaning the chances of him performing at or above value are average at best. However, against the Rays on a short slate, he still remains an option.

Felix Hernandez ($8,600): Texas is hitting only .226 against King Felix in 328 at bats with only five homers, but they have driven in 31 runs. The 81 strikeouts help mitigate the damage. I wouldn’t go as far as to say Hernandez is an elite option this afternoon, but you can’t ignore his likelihood of a win starting opposite Martin Perez.

Dark Horses:

Ross Detwiler ($4,600): Believe it or not, the Astros are only hitting .133 in 30 at bats against Detwiler wish just one run, but only four strikeouts as well. Is that enough to take a chance on him today? He was brilliant in his first start for Texas, but he has given up 14 runs over his last three, and has failed to make it out of the sixth inning in all three of those.

Shelby Miller (???): The DraftKings contests still have Robbie Ray as the starter for tomorrow, but ESPN insists that Miller is being recalled to start against the Giants. MLB.com is no help either. They have the probable starter as TBD. If Miller is the starter, and makes it into the DraftKings contests, he just may be worth using despite his ugly 7.14 ERA on the season. The Giants are hitting just .218 against Miller in 119 at bats with three homers, 11 RBI, and 17 strikeouts. Of course, his value will depend on his price. He wont strike many batters out, but the past stats are positive.

Aug 29, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu (79) hits a single against the Detroit Tigers in the fourth inning at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Don’t forget to check out the DFS Lineup Optimizer over at FantasyPros. You can also pick your favorite players or favorite stack, and it will optimize the lineup around that! It really is an invaluable tool for you DFS players!

The White Sox have actually hit Justin Verlander very well. Jose Abreu ($3,800) is 9-24(.375) with two walks, a double, and three solo homers. Adam Eaton ($2,900) owns a .292 average (7-24) against Verlander with a walk, two doubles, a triple, and a RBI. Melky Cabrera ($2,800) is only 7-32(.219), but he has two walks, a double, a triple, a homer, and six RBI off of Verlander. Todd Frazier ($2,900) has two hits in six at bats with a homer and three RBI. Justin Morneau ($2,600) is 13-53(.245) with eight walks, five doubles, two homers, and five RBI against the Tigers ace.

Chris Sale has not been immune to the Tigers either. This game could be more high scoring than we think! Miguel Cabrera ($3,100) is only 10-42(.238) against Sale, but he has ten walks, a double, two homers, and four RBI. Ian Kinsler ($3,100) has gone only 9-38(.237) off of Sale, but he has five walks, a double, two homers, and four RBI. J.D. Martinez ($3,900) is 8-28(.286) with three walks, two doubles, three homers, and five RBI. Victor Martinez ($3,000) has hit Sale hard. V-Mart is 18-38(.474) with four walks, three doubles, four homers, and nine RBI. At least Sale dodges Jose Iglesias, who is 8-20 with a homer off of him.

Yes, some Texas hitters have made King Felix look princely. Enough of them to use a stack. Elvis Andrus ($3,200) is 26-90(.289) with eight walks, four doubles, and a whopping 14 RBI against King Felix. Carlos Beltran ($3,000) has four doubles, two walks, a single, and two RBI in just nine at bats. Ian Desmond ($3,600) is 2-6 with a solo homer off of Felix. Mitch Moreland ($3,300) only has nine hits in 46 at bats(.196), but he has six walks, three doubles, two homers, and three RBI against Felix. Jurickson Profar ($2,800) has four hits in his first six at bats off of Felix with a double and a pair of RBI. Adrian Beltre ($3,800) is only 11-48(.229), but he has six walks, a double, a homer, and three driven in.

You may want to consider a stack against Mike Fiers. Yonder Alonso ($2,700) has four hits in his first eight at bats against Fiers with a double and three RBI. Coco Crisp ($3,500) is 3-7 with two walks, a homer, and two driven in. Danny Valencia ($3,800) is also 4-8, but he has done more damage. Two of the hits are solo homers.

Aug 22, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager (15) hits a three-run home run against the New York Yankees during the fourth inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Paul Goldschmidt ($5,000) and Jake Lamb ($3,500) both homered off of Matt Moore the first time he faced them. There is some concern that Moore may be extra tired after throwing 133 pitches in a no-hit bid in his last start. This could prove fruitful for Lamb and Goldschmidt.

Watch for falling object in Texas today. Kyle Seager ($4,700) is 10-25 with a walk, three homers, and five RBI against Martin Perez. Nelson Cruz ($5,000) brings the Boomstick against Perez as well. Cruz is 4-7 with a walk, a double, and two solo shots off of Perez.

Brad Miller ($) is 1-4 with two walks and a solo homer against Steven Wright.

Mookie Betts ($5,000) is 5-15 with a double, a homer, and two RBI against Drew Smyly. David Ortiz ($4,900) is 5-14(.357) with two walks, a double, a homer, and two RBI. If Chris Young ($3,900) starts against the lefty, he may be worth a look. Young is 1-4 with two walks and a solo homer against Smyly.

Joe Panik ($3,500) is 2-7 with a walk, a homer, and three RBI against Shelby Miller. Hunter Pence ($3,000) has a homer an three RBI, but he is just 2-14 lifetime against Miller. Brandon Belt ($3,700) has a solo homer and three walks, but that is his only hit in 16 tries against Miller.

Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, and alternative plays if you don’t want to follow the herd. Don’t play FanDuel before checking it out!

Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!

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