This is not the year to be a rookie.
Sure, you’re still going to ink a deal worth a substantial sum of money. You’re still going to play in the NFL. It’s just that the already staggering learning curve just got that much steeper.
I understand that players are gathering and going through workouts. That’s fine and good. It’s a good PR move and perhaps working with some of the game’s stars translates into better on-field performance.
If nothing else, it’s been good for the rumor mill. Don’t tell me you haven’t heard about Kyle Orton tossing the ball to Larry Fitzgerald!
Seriously, the shortened offseason schedule and missed Organized Team Activities (OTAs) will make things more difficult for this year’s rookies. That doesn’t mean that we’re abandoning them in this fantasy realm. It’s quite the opposite. With hundreds of players still set to change teams, opportunities abound.
Let’s review many of the projected impact rookies.
Quarterback
Andy Dalton, Cincinnati
The Bengals need to address the Carson Palmer situation as the first order of business following the lockout. Palmer has vowed to retire rather than play for the Bengals again, and ownership has categorically dismissed talk of a deal.
Marvin Lewis and the Bengals believe that Dalton would be ready to stand under center if called upon to do so in the new-look Cincinnati offense. The receiving corps will be made up of new faces, led by Jerome Simpson, Andre Caldwell and potential monster Jermaine Gresham. Dalton may have the opportunity to ascend to spot starter status as Sam Bradford did last year.
Cam Newton, Carolina
Newton will enter camp with a ton of questions surrounding the squad. Will top receiver Steve Smith return? Is DeAngelo Williams going to wave goodbye? And, of course, will the Panthers decide to sign a veteran option to allow Newton to learn Rob Chudzinski’s system?
If put under center, Newton does have a pair of emerging second-year receivers (will work with David Gettis and Brandon LaFell) and will operate out of a run-first attack. He’s also a threat to tuck the ball and make plays with his legs, a strength that may slide him into the QB2 ranks at some point in the season.
Christian Ponder, Minnesota
The Vikings are rumored to be in the market to bring in a veteran option for 2011 (no, not that one) in order to allow Ponder to learn from the sidelines. If Ponder does line up under center immediately, then the two-step to Adrian Peterson begins. Tight ends Visanthe Shiancoe and Kyle Rudolph (a fellow rookie) would play huge roles, with Percy Harvin’s underneath routes being integral to the team’s success. The healthy return of Sidney Rice (provided he stays in Minnesota) would certainly aid Ponder’s immediate development.
Jake Locker, Tennessee
We’ll be watching with curiosity, as Locker may get a chance to start immediately (Kerry Collins may return). His top option, Kenny Britt, may face a suspension for his off-the-field issues, but tight end Jared Cook started to emerge as a solid contributor in the second half of the 2010 season. It’s hard to imagine Locker impacting fantasy lineups in 2011.
Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco
The 49ers moved up in the second round to select Kaepernick. It comes as no surprise that the 49ers turned to a quarterback given the struggles of Alex Smith and the hiring of former NFL quarterback Jim Harbaugh to rebuild the franchise.
Based on all of the offseason chatter and notes surrounding workouts led by Smith, it appears that the 2005 first overall pick will get one more shot to lead the 49ers. The extension of the lockout certainly doesn’t help the prospects of Kaepernick starting the season under center. He would certainly inherit a capable receiving corps should he start, particularly with Frank Gore returning to the backfield. It’s just a matter of how quickly he digests Harbaugh’s playbook.
Running Back
Daniel Thomas, Miami
Hang a star on Thomas. He just might get a chance to emerge from the pack as the lead running back for 2011, as either Ronnie Brown or Ricky Williams will move onto other opportunities. Thomas has the build (six feet and 230 pounds) to run between the tackles and dominate at the goal line. He catches the ball out of the backfield well and can block. That’s the usual impediment to early action by young running backs. Thomas will be able to work through that barrier.
Just look at the gaudy stats. Thomas rumbled for nearly 1,600 yards with 19 touchdowns last season. Say what you will about Chad Henne. He performs the two-step to the running backs well.
Mark Ingram, New Orleans
Ingram gives the Saints a bulldozer to work alongside Pierre Thomas. The former Heisman winner can pound the ball between the tackles with Thomas spelling him as a runner and most definitely as a receiver.
Ryan Williams, Arizona
Williams runs with power between the tackles and has the foot speed to break things to the outside. However, the selection by Arizona certainly raised some eyebrows given the team’s recent investment in Chris “Beanie” Wells. Simply, Wells has struggled to stay healthy in his two NFL seasons. Tim Hightower has been unable to shake his fumbling issues. At this point, Wells’ workload is most at risk. Williams is an accomplished and tough-nosed runner, but struggles in the passing game. Hightower excels there, but he’ll need to swipe some Stickum to stay out of Ken Whisenhunt’s doghouse.
Mikel Leshoure, Detroit
I sometimes have nightmares that feature Leshoure sprinting directly at me. The powerhouse from Illinois racked up more than 1,700 yards for the Illini last season, including his ridiculous performance against my Northwestern squad. He’s a good bull rusher at the point of attack and drags defenders with him.
I like how he hits into this Detroit roster. Leshoure becomes an impact player immediately in a split workload alongside Jahvid Best. Of course, Leshoure’s physicality puts him on the preseason list of goal-line vultures.
Delone Carter, Indianapolis
Carter was productive in two seasons as a starter at Syracuse. He topped 1,000 yards in back-to-back seasons (1,233 as a senior) and scored a total of 20 rushing touchdowns. Carter is a tough runner who should challenge for a share of the workload immediately. Joseph Addai returns on a one-year deal, and Donald Brown has been inconsistent and injury-prone. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Carter emerge from the pack to lead this trio.
Jacquizz Rodgers, Atlanta
Rodgers’ arrival doesn’t pose a threat to workhorse Michael Turner’s fantasy status. Rather, Rodgers is an intriguing complementary player in this attack. He’s a change-of-pace runner and the fantastic receiver out of the backfield that Turner has never become. Rodgers possesses big-play potential and breakaway speed. If you’re in a points-per-reception (PPR) league, he’s worth snagging late.
Shane Vereen, New England
Vereen averaged 5.1 yards per carry and scored a total of 16 touchdowns (three receiving touchdowns) as the top option at California. At 5-foot-10 and 210 pounds, Vereen has the power to run inside and the speed to cut to the edge.
Vareen enters a crowded backfield led by 2010 fantasy heroes BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead. On most teams, that would translate into little chance of breaking into the rotation and doing significant work. In Bill Belichick’s world, you best keep your chinstrap buckled.
DeMarco Murray, Dallas
Murray has long been compared to Dallas bulldozer Marion Barber. He runs tough between the tackles and has a burst to the outside. Unfortunately, Murray is also compared to Barber in that he runs high and leaves himself exposed for the big hit. The comparisons will continue in 2011, as Murray likely takes on Barber’s workload alongside Felix Jones.
Fans and fantasy owners have clamored for Tashard Choice to receive a full share of the workload and a chance to shine. I presume that he remains the odd-man out, thereby making Murray a solid late-round selection.
Roy Helu, Washington
I violated the long-held fantasy tenet by selecting Helu. I waded into the murky waters of a Mik Shanahan backfield to select Helu. He has the speed and pedigree to make an immediate impact, but Keiland Williams and short-term 2010 fantasy hero Ryan Torain are there to prevent his assumption of a huge role. I like the talent, but there’s certainly some risk associated with the selection of a Washington tailback.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Green, Cincinnati
Green has been compared to Detroit star Calvin Johnson for several years. The comparison and split-screen graphics packages will continue in the early going of the 2011 season. Like Johnson, Green may have to make it on pure athleticism and desire out of the gate. This Cincinnati offense faces numerous questions once the lockout is lifted. Draft him as a WR3 with upside.
Julio Jones, Atlanta
Jones has the ability to stretch things deep, the physicality to help in the running game, and a willingness to work over the middle and take hits. He is the perfect complement to Roddy White, and the attention afforded No. 84 and future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez will clear out space for the rookie to operate. Owners in PPR leagues have found themselves a new gem, as Jones is capable of snagging 60-70 balls in this system.
Randall Cobb, Green Bay
With James Jones headed to free agency, the addition of Cobb gives Rodgers another speed option downfield as well as a fantastic return man. Talk about versatility. He scored in eight different ways for the Wildcats last season. In fact, it was called the “WildCobb” formation in Kentucky.
I don’t look for Cobb to post a huge reception total, but he’ll produce impactful plays.
Greg Little, Cleveland
Little has the size, speed and measurables to offer the Browns an immediate upgrade in the passing game in support of Colt McCoy. He’s also fearless across the middle and tough after the catch.
Little did not play in 2010 as a result of the investigations into improper benefits at North Carolina, so questions about his maturity contributed to his fall in the NFL Draft. He’s certainly raw and hasn’t been on the field for a while, but the talent is there. Cleveland doesn’t exactly have a host of top-notch receivers lined up in front of him. If he comes to camp ready, he’ll have an opportunity to make an immediate contribution.
Jonathan Baldwin, Kansas City
Dwayne Bowe dominated as a veritable “One-Man Gang” for the Chiefs last season. His new tag-team partner arrived in the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft. Baldwin has the size and athleticism to become an immediate contributor in Kansas City and on fantasy stat sheets. The knock on Baldwin has been the combination concentration/maturity. If he brings his game to the Chiefs and leaves the baggage in Pittsburgh, the double-team attention afforded Bowe should create opportunities.
Leonard Hankerson, Washington
Hankerson set records across the board for the Hurricanes last season. He possesses the size and strength to create space with advanced footwork. Of course, we ask those same questions in Washington that we do in many other NFL stops right now. Who is throwing the ball? Will the receiver ahead of him on the depth chart (in this case, Santana Moss) return?
Titus Young, Detroit
The Lions added another element to the passing game, a third option behind Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson. Young has tremendous speed and vision in the open field and demonstrates great body control to get up for jump balls. He needs to add strength to get off the line cleanly, but there’s a lot to like. Young won’t set up as a PPR contributor, but the occasional long ball will force Detroit fans to remove the bags from their heads.
Vincent Brown, San Diego
The former Aztecs star stays in San Diego to offer depth in the Chargers’ receiving corps. He’s a great route runner with a willingness to work over the middle. Brown stands 5-foot-11 and weighs 185 pounds, so he’s the outlier in a San Diego receiving corps filled with giants. Watch how he develops once the Chargers get into camp. He could become a PPR check-down target.
Tight Ends
Lance Kendricks, St. Louis
Kendricks is an accomplished receiver who can run the seams and make plays downfield. At 6-foot-3 and 240 pounds, he’ll create mismatches and gives Bradford a safety valve. The St. Louis receiving corps is a crowded place, but Kendricks should be able to find a place alongside the myriad options.
Robert Housler, Arizona
At 6-foot-5, Housler has the ability to create mismatches downfield and dominate the red zone. He caught multiple passes in each of the Owls’ games last season (39 receptions and four touchdowns overall).
Of course, the value of any receiver in Arizona is tied directly to the team’s post-lockout decision at quarterback. Kevin Kolb’s name has been swirling on the desert winds for some time, but does the team pull the trigger on him? Is there a suitable alternative? Do they grin and bear a start that resembles last year’s debacle in anticipation of an Andrew Luck lottery ticket or take a shine to Terrelle Pryor? If the latter comes to fruition, than Housler’s stock probably rises a tad higher as a sleeper option.
Virgil Green, Denver
The Broncos have no viable pass-catching veteran option on the roster. The team selected a former basketball player in Julius Thomas as a long-term project. Green is the more accomplished and NFL-ready of the pair, having amassed 58 receptions and 10 touchdowns for Colin Kaepernick at Nevada. Green will be intriguing to watch in John Fox’s slowed-down approach with Tim Tebow presumably standing under center.
