I started this series of "Flop" columns by including some quarterback heavyweights in the analysis. I’ll end it the same way by putting some of the most decorated and honored D/ST units under the microscope.
Again, it doesn’t mean that these units fall out of the D/ST1 ranks. It’s all about finding the holes in personnel or scheduling.
In this peculiar offseason, it’s also just a preliminary look at the NFL landscape. There are hundreds of players awaiting their opportunity to ink a new deal. Their movement will necessitate a reworking of the analysis and perhaps shift new units into the mix.
Baltimore
I present the Ravens in this context as a split between the fantasy and reality worlds as currently constructed. I get it. They routinely rank among the league leaders in total defense. You know the names of their defensive stalwarts. Haloti Ngata obliterates opposing runners at the point of attack. Ray Lewis runs through anybody that makes his way to the second level, and Terrell Suggs dominates on the edge. Ed Reed, when healthy, makes wide receivers think twice about drifting into the middle of the field (and dares quarterbacks to throw it there). Reed logged eight interceptions in 2010.
The team needs another playmaker to emerge on the defense line to boost the sack total (tied for 27th with 31 last season). The selection of Jimmy Smith in the NFL Draft bolsters the secondary, but Reed’s health is paramount to keeping the machine humming.
Chicago
The impact of Julius Peppers’ arrival in Chicago was not reflected in the team’s sack total in 2010. The Bears ranked 17th in the NFL with 34 sacks (Peppers and Israel Idonije tied for the team lead with eight sacks each). Despite the team’s low sack count overall, Peppers’ presence certainly generated opportunities for turnovers. Chicago recorded 21 interceptions and forced 23 fumbles. Of course, the Bears’ return to defensive glory was predicated on Peppers’ arrival and a healthy return from linebacker Brian Urlacher, who had essentially missed the 2009 season because of a wrist injury.
Strong play by the front seven helped to cover some of the personnel deficiencies in the secondary. The Bears did not have a true run-stuffer on the squad, yet ceded only 90 rushing yards per game. That wasn’t an accident. The Bears may have been one of the first conference championship game participants to seemingly enter draft weekend with needs at virtually every position.
Lest we forget, the Bears also benefitted from injuries and scheduling blips that saw second and sometimes third-string quarterbacks take the field. Will things break their way again?
New Orleans
The Saints’ 2010 season was anything but ordinary in the aftermath of their Super Bowl run. Drew Brees was proven human, if only for a season, as he compiled turnover after turnover (22 interceptions and two lost fumbles). Despite his struggles at times, the Saints still ranked first in total offense at 31.9 points per game.
Some of the characteristic aggressiveness of Gregg Williams’ defense had to be dialed back, and those frantic ill-conceived downfield tosses in catch-up mode were fewer in number. As a result, the Saints registered just nine interceptions last season. The team did gang-tackle well and recorded 22 forced fumbles to rank third in the NFL. By way of contrast, the team finished the 2009 season with 12 forced fumbles and 26 interceptions.
Brees’ return to pre-2010 form will be paramount to this unit’s fantasy success. The team also needs 2010 first-round pick Patrick Robinson to become a playmaker in the secondary.
Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers have an interesting offseason ahead of them defensively, whenever that’s allowed to begin.
Coach Raheem Morris and the Buccaneers’ staff addressed the inconsistent pass rush by selecting Adrian Clayborn (Iowa) and Da’Quan Bowers (Clemson) in the first two rounds of the 2011 NFL Draft. Tampa Bay accrued only 26 sacks last season, so this was a clear need, even with Gerald McCoy added to the unit in 2010. McCoy produced three sacks and had started to come into his own before an injury ended his season prematurely.
The front seven was fortified in the draft, but there are questions in the secondary. Ronde Barber is another year older. Rising star Aquib Talib is facing serious issues off the field. There’s been talk of an outright release, and he could face a lengthy prison sentence if convicted of felony aggravated assault charge. If he does return to the Buccaneers, Talib may also find himself in Roger Goodell’s office. He intercepted six passes in 11 games last season.
There will be several high-profile cornerbacks on the market once the lockout clears to help mitigate the damage should Talib be unavailable to the team through either scenario. Will they sign one?
Minnesota
Who doesn’t love the tales of Jared Allen’s hunting expeditions? His cookbook and sack total (11) were two of the few positives experienced by the Vikings in an otherwise disastrous 2010 season.
It was a year that was obviously dominated by the Brett Favre story coming into camp and his horrid play and high turnover count throughout the campaign. As a result, the Minnesota defense was on the field a ton and struggled to make its mark.
Allen and Ray Edwards combined for 19 of the team’s 31 sacks (tied for 20th). Minnesota still ranked in the top 10 in run defense (102.2 yards per game), but failed to generate a high number of turnovers (15 interceptions and 11 forced fumbles).
Barring a free-agent acquisition or trade, the Vikings will come to camp with an inexperienced quarterback under center. Ray Edwards has expressed his desire to spend the year as a boxer rather than play on a one-year deal from the Vikings. The secondary still needs another playmaker.
The Vikings selected five defensive players in this year’s draft, but didn’t address the secondary until the third day. How active will this squad be once on the lockout lifts?
Miami
The Dolphins received a superhuman effort out of pass rusher Cameron Wake to propel them into a tie for 10th in the NFL in sacks (Wake had 14 of the Dolphins’ 39 sacks). However, that persistent pressure wasn’t enough to generate a huge turnover total. Miami intercepted 11 passes (tied for 28th) and forced 11 fumbles (tied for 22nd). Vontae Davis has developed into one of the game’s top cornerbacks, but he’s not going to see enough action on his side of the field to log a sizable interception count.
I’m fearful that offensive deficiencies will hamper this unit’s ability to ascend the fantasy ranks. As excited as fantasy owners are about the arrival of Daniel Thomas and perhaps a free agent addition, the question mark at quarterback looms large.
