I wanted to stay on the field and pursue the happy-go-lucky talk of completions, touchdown plunges and fantastic long-distance touchdown passes. But, as we’re all too aware, it always comes back to dollars and cents. Or is it sense?
In that vein, I’m looking ahead to the next round of negotiations. Of course, once a new CBA is ratified, there will be a flurry of activity. In addition to the massive number of free agents set to ink new deals for 2011, a number of others will eschew the free agent landscape and sign long-term deals. The whispers coming out of the current talks are that a whole other group of players would suddenly hit the market.
We’ll address that once it comes to pass. In the interim, I’m taking a quick pass through the most fantasy-relevant options set for free agency in 2012. Sure, some of these players are etched in stone on their respective team’s “Mount Rushmore,” but I’m painting a detailed portrait.
Quarterbacks
Drew Brees, New Orleans
Brees is listed among the plaintiffs in the class action complaint against the NFL. That’s certainly not going to impact Tom Benson’s desire to keep his 32-year-old signal caller in New Orleans for the duration of his career. Brees has been ultra-productive since his arrival in New Orleans, although he did take too many chances with ill-advised tosses in 2010 (22 interceptions). He won’t be going anywhere, but his wide receiver set may adjust in short order. Both Marques Colston and Robert Meachem are entering contract seasons as well.
Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia (for now)
Name a team in need of a quarterback, and Kolb has probably been attached to them in one or more trade rumors. Arizona and Seattle are the front-runners, of course, but others suitors may emerge as the lockout comes to an end. Regardless, it’s unlikely that Kolb stays in Philadelphia, and it’s definitely unrealistic to think that Kolb enters a new market and isn’t inked to a long-term deal.
Kyle Orton, Denver (for now)
The picture of Orton and Larry Fitzgerald following a workout got the blogosphere popping with rumors and trade scenarios. Despite a horrid win-loss record in 2010 (thanks, defense), Orton still amassed 3,653 passing yards while playing catch-up and connecting downfield with Brandon Lloyd. He earned that total in 13 games.
Orton, like Kolb, is expected to be moved upon the conclusion of the lockout, thereby trumpeting the opening of the highly-anticipated Tim Tebow era. Orton would look good in Arizona with Fitzgerald, but I suspect Kolb is the man to fill out that uniform. My guess is that Orton arrives in Seattle unless the Bengals actually acquiesce to Carson Palmer’s trade request and reunite him with Pete Carroll.
Michael Vick, Philadelphia
Kolb was the starter as the 2010 season opened, but an early injury opened the door for Vick. Save some short-term injury issues, Vick set the football and fantasy football worlds aflame. He rolled up 3,018 passing yards, 676 rushing yards and 30 total touchdowns (nine rushing).
Vick may sign a long-term contract once the lockout ends, but there’s also the possibility that the Eagles choose to slap him with a franchise tag. I include him here based on the latter, but I suspect that the Eagles reward him with a huge deal after sending Kolb’s contract to a new home.
Running Backs
Reggie Bush, New Orleans
The selection of Mark Ingram by New Orleans in the 2011 NFL Draft likely signaled the end of Bush’s tenure with the Saints. His Tweets essentially told you as much. As much as the Saints may talk about Bush’s return to the team, there’s most certainly some financial finagling to be done.
After all, Bush is slated to earn almost $12 million this season. Yes, the Saints were snake-bitten at running back last season, but barring the acceptance of a huge pay cut, I don’t see him coming back here. Teammate Pierre Thomas signed a much more palatable sub-$3 million long-term deal.
I suspect that he’s ultimately released because of that hefty price tag. It’s hard to believe that you’ll see a suitor step up for an oft-injured running back who cannot play every down.
Matt Forte, Chicago
Talk about underpaid! Forte is scheduled to earn a paltry $550,000 for the final year of his rookie deal. His contract will be one of the first topics address by Chicago brass post-lockout (next to finalizing work in the secondary or receiving corps, of course). Forte certainly rebounded in his third NFL season, thereby making the prospect of a long-term deal far more palatable for fans and the team.
Frank Gore, San Francisco
The longtime fantasy favorite and points-per-reception (PPR) hero enters the final year of his contract. He’s motivated to prove that there’s still plenty left in the tank following last year’s injury-shortened campaign. Gore’s agent, Drew Rosenhaus, has tagged him as “100 percent healthy,” after a hip injury forced him to be shut down for the stretch run. He was medically cleared at the end of February and his status has been addressed by GM Trent Baalke. Baalke told The San Jose Mercury News that he anticipated inking Gore to a long-term deal to finish his career in San Francisco.
Ryan Grant, Green Bay
Grant is reportedly fully recovered from the ankle injury that ended his season in the first week. The Green Bay Press-Gazette advises that the Packers will honor Grant’s 2011 contract that is scheduled to pay him more than $5 million. Grant will share carries alongside James Starks, who shone brightly once given a chance down the stretch. However, if the Packers do allow Grant to cash those checks, I can’t imagine that he’s not amassing a sizable touch count.
He’ll turn 29 in December, so it’s likely that Grant is allowed to walk unless Starks shrinks away.
Thomas Jones, Kansas City
Jones will return for a second season in Kansas City alongside Jamaal Charles, though his touch count is expected to dip. His productivity dropped markedly during the final weeks of the season. The workout machine may be entering his final NFL season.
LaDainian Tomlinson, New York Jets
Tomlinson rebounded nicely following two down years to end his run in San Diego. He ran well behind the strong Jets offensive line while serving as a fantastic receiver out of the backfield once again (52 receptions).
Tomlinson expects to slide into a secondary role behind third-year running back Shonn Greene. He will still be a threat as a receiver out of the backfield and will see a higher workload if Greene continues to struggle with his ball-handling.
One thing to watch this season is how the Jets utilize second-year running back Joe McKnight. If McKnight develops in Year 2 and can become an asset in the passing game (where Greene plays zero role), then Tomlinson may find himself joining his third team.
Wide Receivers
Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona
Fitzgerald has a clause in his current deal that would spike his pay rate to $23 million if the team were to place a franchise tag on him. As such, look for the Cardinals to get things rolling on a huge extension in short order. Fitzgerald won’t be going anywhere, and he’ll most definitely have a say in who becomes the team’s new signal caller.
Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City
Bowe dominated as a one-man receiving corps for the Chiefs for Matt Cassel in 2010. He scored 15 touchdowns in 2010 and posted one of the most phenomenal seven-game runs in recent memory. Bowe had scored 16 touchdowns in his first three years.
He received some help in this year’s draft in the person of Jonathan Baldwin from Pittsburgh, an addition that should create space for him downfield. Bowe’s history has a few spots, but there’s no denying his talent. He’ll get locked in long-term provided there are no additional run-ins with the coaching staff.
Marques Colston, New Orleans
Colston is most certainly an interesting player to watch this season. He returns to one of the league’s most explosive offenses as its top option. Can the oft-injured, surgically-repaired receiver make it through a full season?
Colston has undergone at least five surgeries, so he’ll need to perform at a high level to receive a high-value, long-term contract.
Robert Meachem, New Orleans
The Saints also risk losing Meachem following the 2011 season. Meachem played through pain in 2010 and underwent ankle surgery following the playoff loss to Seattle. He finished the year with 44 receptions for 638 yards and five touchdowns.
Mario Manningham, New York Giants
Longtime readers of my musings recognize my fantasy man-crush on Manningham. He produced strong numbers in his sophomore season before taking his game to another level (nine touchdowns and nearly 1,000 receiving yards) in Steve Smith’s absence. The team’s efforts toward Smith once the lockout ends will provide us with some clarity regarding Manningham’s future.
Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati
The reality star, bull rider and all-around social media hero is entering the final year of his contract with the Bengals, though most expect to see him in another uniform. He’s been openly critical of management and has spoken of Marvin Lewis being “mean” to him.
Ochocinco still has some gas left in the proverbial tank. I suspect that he gets released and signs an incentive-laden, one-year deal (New England has been rumored as a destination) before hitting the market again for 2012. The “Dancing With The Stars” alum has not yet danced his last dance in the NFL.
Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis
Wayne’s touchdown and yards-per-catch (YPC) numbers dropped in 2010, but he still amassed 111 receptions and topped 1,300 receiving yards. The ultra-efficient and reliable starter (he’s completed nine consecutive seasons) will remain in Indianapolis with Peyton Manning. That level of comfort between quarterback and receiver doesn’t come easy.
Wes Welker, New England
Welker is set to reclaim his role as a dominant PPR option. He caught 86 passes in 15 games last season. He turned 30 years old on May 1, prompting speculation that Welker will be allowed to leave following the campaign.
Bill Belichick’s history in New England has been clear. The team has a remarkable track record of allowing veterans to leave right before production falls off markedly.
Tight Ends
Jermichael Finley, Green Bay
Finley described his knee as feeling “brand-new” in the Twitter-verse early this offseason. He was slated for a huge breakout season prior to sustaining his season-ending knee injury.
The team selected Mackey Award winner D.J. Williams in this year’s draft, thereby casting some shadow on Finley’s future workload in Green Bay. Since he’s still on the rise, it would be hard to imagine the team allowing him to leave.
Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville
Lewis experienced his breakout season in 2010. He frequented the end zone and became the most reliable option available to David Garrard. Lewis’ contract will be one of the more contested once the lockout concludes.
“Who wants to work on a one-year deal?” Lewis told Pro Football Weekly. He elaborated to discuss his years of work and his desire to ink a long-term contract.
Greg Olsen, Chicago
Olsen is reportedly the second priority for the Bears behind Matt Forte in the contract line. His production dropped markedly in Year 1 of the Mike Martz regime, and he’ll need a huge 2009-like stat line (60 receptions, including eight touchdowns) to get suitors lined up to talk to Drew Rosenhaus. Rosenhaus and Olsen may choose to test the market if his role isn’t expanded in Chicago. The potential for bigger numbers, both on the field and at the ATM, may lay elsewhere.
Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota
Shiancoe’s productivity dropped precipitously in Brett Favre’s sleepwalking journey through the 2010 season. He was an infrequent red zone contributor. As such, fantasy owners who anticipated a strong follow-up to his 2008 and 2009 seasons were left wanting.
Shiancoe now has to contend with rookie Kyle Rudolph. With Christian Ponder under center (barring the arrival of a veteran option), the potential of a two-tight end system is plausible. Still, Rudolph’s presence does pose a threat to Shiancoe’s red zone exploits and target count. If Rudolph acclimates to the NFL quickly, then Shiancoe may be expendable in 2012.
