So Hyun-Jin Ryu might pitch again this year, but he might not. Here’s why it matters …
It’s easy to forget Hyun-Jin Ryu. When your rotation-mates include Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, that sort of thing will happen. But let’s just pick a metric at random ... okay, I just pulled xFIP out of a cap.*
* lie
As you probably know, xFIP is scaled to ERA and is designed to strip most of the luck from a pitcher’s performance, with “luck” defined as abnormal luck (good or bad) on batted balls in play, and abnormal luck (good or bad) on fly balls that did (or didn’t) carry the fence and become home runs. We might quibble with xFIP, but we gotta pick something and xFIP’s what fell out of the sabermetric hopper.*
* another lie
Among National League pitchers with at least 120 innings, Kershaw ranks first (of course) in xFIP. Greinke ranks third. Ryu ranks sixth.
Perhaps it goes without saying that no other team in the National League can match that trio in this regard. But just for fun, here are the top three guys on each likely postseason team, with their aggregated xFIP rank:
10: Dodgers
31: Nationals
61: Pirates
63: Giants
107: Cardinals
That’s impressive. Yes, you need more than three starters in October. Yes, there will be starters who didn’t make my 120-innings cutoff. But I think you’ll agree that we’ve got most of the important starting pitchers, and those numbers are a decent representation of their quality.
Now let’s do the same thing but without Hyun-Jin Ryu:
31: Nationals
32: Dodgers
61: Pirates
63: Giants
107: Cardinals
... and there goes the Dodgers' big edge. Nobody can match up with Kershaw. But the Nationals and Giants can both match up with the Dodgers' No. 2, and everybody can match up with the Dodgers' No. 3 (Dan Haren).
But wait, this gets worse for the Dodgers. You need a fourth starter, too. In some postseason series, anyway. Without Ryu, the Dodgers' No. 4 starter would almost certainly be Roberto Hernandez, whose 4.47 xFIP ranks 54th (among 57) in the group.
The Dodgers will be favored in every game Kershaw starts, and most of the games Greinke starts. But without Ryu, they’ll be underdogs in many of the rest. More practically speaking, with Ryu they're just as good as the Nationals. Considering the Angels' injuries, they’re just as good as them, too; maybe even a tick better.
Without Ryu, though? Without one of the league's best starters, the Dodgers are just another co-favorite, left to hope for just a bit more than their fair share of Providence.
