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5 Things to Watch:
1. Here are the highest over/unders for Friday, provided by OddsShark...
Game
O/U
2. Beware of Tigers-Yankees. I've seen as high as a 97% chance of rain smack dab in the middle of that game. Keep an eye on Indians-White Sox as well, but we should be clear everywhere else.
3. Two games in Coors Field and we've already seen a whopping 36 runs combined. It's becoming increasingly difficult to fade these teams completely. Get a piece of the action somewhere.
4. With Arrieta, Felix and Harvey all on the hill, you're likely going cheap in the outfield. If you want to zig while everyone else zags, Edinson Volquez is a steal at just $7300 at home (-156) against the Twins if you're looking for minimal damage and a likely win bonus.
5. There are a lot of hitters from teams you probably want no part of on Sunday. With the A's (Felix), Phillies (Harvey), Diamondbacks (Arrieta) and Brewers (Keuchel) all likely off the radar, you can hone in on players with much friendlier pitching matchups like the Royals, Pirates and others.
Yesterday's recap: Our Tigers stack fizzled out (4 runs), Baltimore was rained out and Nelson Cruz struck out. Scooter Gennett, you're my only friend. Let's bounce back like the Padres and do better on Sunday.
Must-Start of the day: Eugenio Suarez, CIN - He's beating the cover off the ball so far this year (1.297 OPS) and he fared very well against southpaws last season (.289 avg). Batting right before on base machine Joey Votto doesn't hurt, either. All that for $3800? Sold.
Deal of the day: Francisco Cervelli, PIT - $3400 is way too cheap for a guy who gets on base at a high clip (+370 OBP last three year) in a plus matchup against Tim Melville. If you don't go with Posey, save money with Cervelli.
Avoid of the day: Justin Verlander, DET - The weather could make this a moot point, but I'm not fully ready to trust Verlander yet, particularly against Tanaka and a good Yankees lineup. Spend a couple extra grand to get a more reliable ace with far less risk.
Stack of the day: Kansas City Royals. Ricky Nolasco has a 5.64 combined ERA in two seasons with Minnesota, along with a nasty 1.55 WHIP. If recent history is any indicator, he could easily get shelled by Cain, Hosmer and the rest of the lineup.
Starting Pitchers:
Jake Arrieta, CHC: Counting the last two months of the regular season, Arrieta has allowed just four earned runs in his last 89 innings. He's about as matchup proof as it gets, even on the road in a hitter's park.
Matt Harvey, NYM: After a rough start to the year, I'm going to wait on using Harvey for a bit, especially since he's priced higher than Arrieta and Felix in this one. Philly is a great matchup, but I'm fading.
Felix Hernandez, SEA: He's killed Oakland over the years (2.64 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) and gets the advantage of pitching at home in an easy matchup on paper. After Arrieta, Felix is the ace I'd be most comfortable spending up for.
Catchers:
Francisco Cervelli, PIT: "Deal of the day"
Buster Posey, SFG: .876 OPS against LHP over his last three seasons.
First Basemen:
Eric Hosmer, KC: The first of many Royals you'll see on today's list, mainly due to the matchup with Nolasco.
Joey Votto, CIN: Votto hit .331 against southpaws last year and has a good chance to homer at home in a juicy matchup.
Second Basemen:
Kolten Wong, STL: Part of a cheap Cardinals stack.
Dee Gordon, MIA: He hasn't stolen a base yet this season, so I'm thinking he's due for a breakout game on the basepaths.
Third Basemen:
Mike Moustakas, KC: Royals stack all day today.
Matt Carpenter, STL: May have finally broken out of his early season slump, and Williams Perez was a disaster last year (4.78 ERA, 1.55 WHIP). Batting leadoff is always nice, too.
Shortstops:
Alcides Escobar, KC: See Five Things.
Eugenio Suarez, CIN: "Must-start of the day"
Outfield:
Lorenzo Cain, KC: You get the drift by now.
Starling Marte, PIT: I know this is a game of numbers, but I just feel like Marte always kills it on Sundays for some reason, and I think CIN-PIT has a chance to be extremely high scoring.
Steven Souza, Jr, TB: Souza jumped out to a hot start last year as well, and Vance Worley isn't a pitcher we have to duck by any means.
Stephen Piscotty, STL: Off to a nice start and is way underpriced given the matchup.
Rajai Davis, CLE: Speed threat is always in play when southpaws are on the hill.
