TEMPE, Ariz. -- The NFL is compelling drama for many reasons. No reason is more compelling than the reality that fortunes can change quickly.
If you want an example, look no further than the NFC's South and West divisions. In 2010, the NFC South boasted three teams with 10-plus wins: Atlanta (13-3), New Orleans (12-4) and Tampa Bay (10-6). By contrast, the NFC West had none. Seattle won the division at 7-9, St. Louis went 7-9, San Francisco was 6-10 and the Cardinals were 5-11.
Four seasons later, fortunes have flipped. The NFC West has three teams at least three games above .500 in Arizona (9-2), Seattle (7-4) and San Francisco (7-4). Meanwhile, the NFC South is threatening to set a new NFL record for division futility.
Atlanta, the Cardinals' opponent this week, leads the division with a 4-7 record, while New Orleans (4-7) and Carolina (3-7-1) remain in the hunt. Even Tampa (2-9) has a shot, marking perhaps the first time in NFL history that a team is still alive for the first pick in the draft and for a division title after 11 games.
The NFC South could become the first NFL division to boast a 5-11 or 6-10 champion -- a champ that would still host a first-round playoff game against a wild-card team that could have twice as many wins.
"It keeps things interesting; it keeps things competitive and exciting for the fans the way they have everything set up," said Cardinals center Lyle Sendlein, who was also around when the Cardinals won their division with a 9-7 record in 2008 and then went to the Super Bowl. "We don't look at records. We're playing a team that's tied for first place in their division. You win your division, nobody cares what your record is. You're getting a home playoff game, so that's what both of us are fighting for."
Cardinals (9-2) at Falcons (4-7)
When: 2:05 p.m., Sunday
Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta
TV: FOX (Kevin Burkhart, John Lynch, Pam Oliver)
2013 Offensive rankings: The Falcons are 12th overall at 362.5 yards per game (7th passing, 269.5 yards; 26th rushing, 93.1 yards, 12th scoring, 23.8 points). The Cardinals are 25th overall at 321.3 yards per game (15th passing, 242.9 yards; 31st rushing, 78.4 yards, 18th scoring, 21.8 points).
2013 Defensive rankings: The Falcons are 32nd overall at 409.9 yards per game (32nd passing, 284.1 yards, 24th rushing, 125.8 yards, 22nd scoring, 25.5). The Cardinals are 11th overall at 339.1 yards per game (25th passing, 254.6 yards; third rushing, 84.5 yards, t-2nd scoring, 17.7 points).
QUICK FACTS
-- Cardinals cornerbacks coach Kevin Ross played two seasons for the Falcons (1994-95), starting 31 of 32 games and recording six interceptions, two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries.
-- Falcons offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter was Arizona State's coach from 2001-06.
-- Mike Smith is the only Atlanta coach ever to lead his teams to five consecutive winning seasons (2008-2012).
-- The Falcons have defeated the Cardinals six consecutive times in Atlanta. Arizona's last win there came on Jan. 2, 1994 (27-10).
INJURY REPORT
Cardinals: LB Kenny Demens (hamstring) and DT Ed Stinson (toe) are out. WR Larry Fitzgerald (knee) is questionable. LB Lorenzo Alexander (knee), LB Marcus Benard (shoulder), RB Andre Ellington (hip/foot), WR John Brown (wisdom teeth) and QB Drew Stanton (ankle) are probable.
Falcons: CB Robert Alford (wrist) is out. DT Paul Soliai (non-injury) and WR Roddy White (ankle) are questionable. WR Harry Douglas (foot) and T Jonathan Scott (hamstring) are probable.
WHAT'S AT STAKE?
The Cardinals probably need to win three more games to secure home field advantage in the playoffs and possibly the No. 1 or No. 2 seed. Given the remainder of their schedule (Kansas City, at St. Louis, Seattle, at San Francisco), this may be the most winnable game. A two-game losing streak would create a whole lot of concern with that remaining slate.
OUTLOOK
The Cardinals offense has not looked good the past two weeks, but it may be able to get enough going against the Falcons' awful defense to turn things over to the Arizona defense, which is playing arguably its best ball of the season. Kicker Chandler Catanzaro needs to get his groove back. Points will be precious for the Cardinals from here on out.
PREDICTION
Cardinals 23, Falcons 17
History has examples of division winners with poor or mediocre records that have fared well once the playoffs started. The 2010 Seahawks beat the 11-5 Saints in the first round. The Cardinals parlayed that 9-7 season, which featured four losses by three or more touchdowns, into a Super Bowl run.
"Atlanta has all the talent to be a great team in this league," said Cardinals defensive end Calais Campbell, who was a rookie on Arizona's Super Bowl team. "They've only got four wins so far, but if they get hot now they're a tough team to beat, so we have to make sure we take them very seriously."
The NFC South's struggles have fomented a heated debate about whether a team with a losing record deserves to host a playoff game or even make the playoffs. The NFL doesn't seem inclined to change the current format, but it's impossible to say right now how the embarrassment and shock value of a 5-11 team with a home playoff game might impact that stance because it hasn't happened yet.
Cardinals coach Bruce Arians is among those who sees no need for change.
"Winning your division, you still hang a banner," he said. "They'll put the year up there and 'division champs.' They don't put the record usually. Nobody gives a (expletive). It's about hanging those banners. That's pretty cool (expletive)."
"If you want to get in, win your division whether it's 10-(6) or 6-10."
The Cardinals employed that belief in 2008 and ended up hosting two playoff games when upsets ruled the NFC playoffs. Their first-round opponent was Atlanta, a wild card team with an 11-5 record. But Falcons coach Mike Smith sidestepped any thought that this game might be payback for that indignity.
"I didn't say that, guys," he said, laughing. "You guys said that."
Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan acknowledged the odd nature of this year's NFC South on a conference call. But he quickly adopted the day-at-a-time mantra that is both cliche and reality in the NFL
"It's definitely a different year, but it is what it is," he said. "We can't change anything that's happened up until this point. We can only control what we're going to do moving forward. From that perspective, we're right in the mix."
Atlanta has a leg up on the division race because it is 4-0 against NFC South teams (and 0-7 against the rest of the NFL). Despite their record, the Falcons have been competitive. They've scored only 19 fewer points than they've given up.
Besides, the Cardinals are in a division race of their own and still have to face the Seahawks and 49ers, not to mention the 7-4 Kansas City Chiefs and the Rams in St. Louis. In that light, this game feels like one the Cardinals have to win if they are to avoid a late-season meltdown that could cost them the division and a home game.
"We know in our division every win is precious," Campbell said. "(Seattle and San Francisco), they won't just give it to us because we have a lead in our division. We have to go play good football and close it out. We have the advantage because we can just win but we have to win."
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3 THINGS TO WATCH
Cardinals run game: It's the stoppable force vs. the moveable object when the Cardinals 31st ranked rushing attack faces the Falcons' 24th-ranked rushing defense. If Arizona can't get its run game going this week it may never get it going. Then again, the Falcons are the league's worst team against the pass and its worst defense in terms of yards, so maybe the Cards' struggling offense can get well this week. It will be interesting to see if newly added running back Michael Bush will be active and can add anything in short yardage situations, just five days after signing with the Cardinals.
Turnovers: The Cardinals' success this season has been predicated partly on winning the turnover battle. They've lost that battle the past two weeks with Drew Stanton taking over for injured starter Carson Palmer. Arizona had slipped to No. 3 in the NFL in turnover margin at plus-10. With Stanton at QB, the margin for error will be slimmer. This is an area the Cardinals can't afford to lose. Atlanta is plus-4 in turnover margin, but QB Matt Ryan has had his struggles against Arizona. In a 2008 Cardinals' wild card playoff win, Ryan, then a rookie, threw two interceptions. In 2012, the Cardinals intercepted Ryan five times in Atlanta and last season, the Cardinals added four more interceptions in a win.
The fourth quarter: Atlanta has been outscored 108-48 in the final period. Arizona has outscored opponents 91-34 in the fourth.
