Breaking down the title odds of the 7 SEC East teams

Breaking down the title odds of the 7 SEC East teams

Published Sep. 27, 2014 12:25 a.m. ET

1. How's this for an enviable position: The Gamecocks have played the most SEC games to date (3) and still control their own destiny in the East.

On the flip side, Tennessee and Missouri (zero SEC games to date) are obliged to squeeze in eight intense conference tilts into the next 10 Saturdays.

Which brings us to this: Factoring in Saturday's clash with Missouri, how is it possible that South Carolina will have four conference games under its belt before Oct. 1?

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Yes, spreading out eight league outings amongst 14 teams apiece -- while satisfying various network-TV partners -- is no easy task. But that's still a huge advantage for the Gamecocks, especially since three of their first four league games occur at home.

2. Plus, unlike Missouri, Florida and Georgia, South Carolina doesn't have any SEC road games -- or those played on neutral fields -- on back-to-back Saturdays.

3. It's pretty simple math for South Carolina: Sweep the remaining five games (Missouri, Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee, Florida) ... and the Gamecocks will be playing in Atlanta on Dec. 6.

4. In his first year as the full-time starter, Gamecocks QB Dylan Thompson (1,140 yards passing, 11 TDs) has already enjoyed three outings of 260-plus yards passing, three efforts of three-plus touchdowns and four games of 20-plus completions.

South Carolina, which allowed two kick-return touchdowns to Vanderbilt last week, currently ranks 116th nationally against the pass ... and 106th in scoring defense.

1. The Bulldogs have three manageable road tilts on the upcoming docket -- Missouri (Oct. 11), Arkansas (Oct. 18) and Kentucky (Nov. 8).

2. Charting its prominent rivals, Georgia has a three-game winning streak against Florida ... and the football gods certainly owe the Bulldogs -- in the biggest way possible -- when they host No. 5 Auburn on Nov. 15.

3. Georgia's defense is stacked with NFL-caliber talent, especially at the linebacker spots. To wit, the Bulldogs held Troy to zero points and only 11 first downs last week (66-0 rout).

4. Tailback Todd Gurley remains on the short list of viable candidates for the Heisman Trophy -- thanks to 329 total yards and five combined TDs against Clemson and South Carolina.

That high-profile attention, in theory, should help the Bulldogs stay focused for every game from this point forward.

5. The SEC West currently has six members ranked in the AP Top 25 ... and yet, the Bulldogs only have one supreme West club on the schedule (Auburn).

On that note ... poor Florida's crossover games include No. 3 Alabama (lost by 21 last week) and LSU.

6. Georgia needs South Carolina (2-1 in SEC play) to drop another conference game at some point; but the Bulldogs have one major factor in their favor:

UGA hosts Auburn ... whereas South Carolina heads to The Plains on Oct. 25.

For purposes of this piece, the annual showdown with No. 1 Florida State doesn't carry much weight.

1. On paper, Florida has the most difficult two-pack of SEC West crossover opponents (Alabama, LSU) ... although Tennessee (Alabama, Ole Miss), Kentucky (Mississippi State, LSU) and especially South Carolina (Texas A&M, Auburn) would dispute that notion.

2. With Jeff Driskel completing only nine passes against Alabama last week (on 28 attempts), it's fair to wonder if the 2014 Gators have taken significant steps forward from last year's middling offense?  

3. Through three games, the Florida defense boasts only six sacks -- ranking 11th amongst its SEC brethren.

4. Over the last four seasons (2010-13), the Gators have a 2-6 combined record against South Carolina and Georgia.

5. Florida was extremely fortunate to slip past Kentucky in overtime on Sept. 13. As such, even if the Gators ran the table in SEC play ... they still wouldn't control their own destiny in the East.

1. The SEC schedule-maker did Mizzou no favors by assigning South Carolina, Georgia and Florida as the first three conference foes -- including two road outings (Columbia, Gainesville).

It's a daunting, unforgiving slate ... and one that probably requires a minimum outcome of 2-1, given South Carolina's doable path from this point forward.

2. From a bookmaker's perspective, Mizzou will likely be underdogs for its four SEC road games -- No. 13 South Carolina (Saturday), Florida (Oct. 18), No. 6 Texas A&M (Nov. 15) and Tennessee (Nov. 22).

3. With Missouri and Tennessee opening SEC play this weekend (last ones in the pool), the Tigers and Vols must now squeeze eight conference games into the next 10 Saturdays.

4. The Tigers -- even with QB Maty Mauk's highly efficient TD-to-completion rate (1.5/5) -- are a middle-of-the-pack offense for passing, rushing and receiving.

The Volunteers, who played 21 true freshmen and 32 program newcomers in their season-opener (vs. Utah State), feature three amazing playmakers in freshman tailback Jalen Hurd (121 total yards vs. Oklahoma), cornerback Cameron Sutton and sophomore receiver Marquez North (14 catches, 273 yards, two TDs) -- perhaps the SEC's most athletic wideout ... after Alabama's Amari Cooper.

1. As mentioned above (cue broken record playing), Tennessee and Missouri (SEC debuts this week) must shoehorn eight intense conference games into the next 10 Saturdays.

2. Not much has happened in September to alter our October/November notions with the Vols, who easily dispatched of Utah State and Arkansas State before incurring a competitive, but ultimately decisive road loss against No. 4 Oklahoma (Sept. 13).

3. How's this insane: On three consecutive Saturdays, Tennessee must confront No. 10 Ole Miss (Oct. 18), No. 3 Alabama (Oct. 25) and No. 13 South Carolina (Nov. 1) -- with two of the outings coming on the road (Oxford, Columbia).

No other conference school can match a three-game, 14-day gauntlet like that.

1. The Wildcats' baby-steps-to-relevance plan in Year 2 of the Mark Stoops era is empirically ahead of schedule -- and that includes a devastating triple-overtime loss to the Gators on Sept. 13.

(Kentucky had Florida on the ropes in the final minutes.)

2. As such, when watching Kentucky on TV, the talent, depth and athleticism immediately jump out on the screen; and the upgrades could/should pay dividends over the next three Saturdays, when the Wildcats host Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Louisiana-Monroe.

When targeting the stars of tomorrow -- today -- look no further than sophomore QB Patrick Towles (391 total yards, three TDs) and freshman receiver Garrett Johnson (six catches, 154 yards, two TDs) accounting for five touchdowns in the loss to Florida.

3. Kentucky may be a long shot for the SEC East title, but the club has a decent chance of busting its three-year bowl drought.

1. Alabama may have been temporarily dropped from Kentucky's schedule, but the Wildcats still drew one of the toughest SEC West crossover slates -- at No. 17 LSU (Oct. 18) and hosting No. 14 Mississippi State (Oct. 25) on back-to-back Saturdays.

2. It's imperative for Kentucky to cleanly dispatch of Vandy this week, for one simple reason: There isn't another "gimme" conference game on the schedule -- even though the Wildcats certainly have bowl-caliber talent.

3. The Wildcats' two-deep is chock-full of freshmen and sophomores, indicating the program might require one more season before taking a significant step forward.

1. For starters, Vandy should be commended for its respectable loss to South Carolina -- trailing the No. 14 Gamecocks by three entering the 4th quarter (Sept. 20).

But it still isn't enough to erase the ugly memories of consecutive blowout defeats to Temple (by 30) and No. 15 Ole Miss (41-3 at home) ... or a close-shave victory over UMass, which has dropped 29 of its last 31 games (dating back to 2011).

2. Through four games, Vandy has surrendered averages of 39.3 points and 423 total yards to the opposition.

3. The Commodores picked the wrong year, figuratively speaking, to draw No. 14 Mississippi State and No. 15 Ole Miss for crossover games. The Rebels have already run roughshod over Vandy ... and the Bulldogs are averaging 271 team rushing yards per outing.

4. Vandy's best shot at earning an SEC victory probably comes on two fronts: Saturday's road tilt with Kentucky and the season-ending home showdown with Tennessee (Nov. 29).

In both cases, the Commodores probably need the Wildcats and Vols to take the respective meetings for granted.

ODDS OF WINNING EAST TITLE: 275-1

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