Major League Baseball

Braves Roundtable: Evaluating 2014 surprises, disappointments and more

Published Oct. 1, 2014 5:05 p.m. ET

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Zach Dillard

The 2014 regular season is in the books and the Atlanta Braves are on the outside of MLB's postseason for the sixth time in the past nine years. Our writers -- Cory McCartney, Zach Dillard, Knox Bardeen and Jay Clemons -- discuss the ups and downs of the season and look ahead to the 2015 season:

BARDEEN: The emergence of Alex Wood gives the Braves two front-of-the-rotation starters under the age of 24. Wood was good in 2013, but by increasing his innings pitched by almost 100 this year while improving his ERA, walk rate and strikeout rate, shows that he's building a foundation to be this good for some time.

One of the other aspects of Wood's 2014 season that really sparked good thoughts was the fact that he didn't suffer through the peaks and valleys that most starting pitcher go through. He had on really poor outing on April 29 where he gave up seven earned runs in five innings. Other than that, he never gave up more than four earned runs in any other start, and pitched seven innings or more than half of his starts (13 of 24).

MCCARTNEY: The best thing to come out of the season for the Braves is that amid all the injuries and changes to the rotation, the organization saw Julio Teheran and Alex Wood take the next steps in their maturation. Teheran got the Opening Day start and proceeded to see his season ERA (2.89) strikeouts (186) and average against (.227) all improve.

Meanwhile, Wood, in his first full season in the majors had a 2.78 ERA and 170 strikeouts to 45 walks, while pitching nearly 100 innings more than he did in '13. No matter what changes this starting staff goes through over the coming months, there's no question it has two emerging stars at the top.

CLEMONS: I've never been one for overreactions with this game. Even forward-thinking, well-constructed franchises fall short of their title, playoff or above-.500 aspirations from year to year. The beauty of it all rests with this: If the Braves earnestly believe that deposed GM Fran Wren had a solid long-term plan of building this club into a consistent playoff contender and occasional World Series participant, then the losing 2014 campaign should be treated as a one-year aberration. Outside of the Derek Jeter years with the Yankees (1995-2014) and the Atlanta Braves of 1991-2005, many good clubs are afforded the luxury of a "write-off" season -- where only tweaks and bold, but not risky moves were required before the next spring training.

On the flip side, I fully expect the Braves to explore the trade values of outfielders Jason Heyward and Justin Upton during the offseason. Neither player should be considered more than a 50-50 proposition to re-sign with Atlanta before December 2015. As such, the front office cannot be afraid to pull the trigger that benefits the long-term vision of the franchise -- even at the expense of a possible pennant run next year. Simply put, Upton and Heyward hold greater value than compensatory high picks in the 2016 MLB Draft.

As for the present, in their hazy 2014 season, the Braves also found clarity on their 1-2 punch atop the starting rotation -- Julio Teheran (14-13, 2.89 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 186 Ks) and Alex Wood (11-11, 2.78 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 170 Ks), both just 23 years old. Atlanta might not have the best or deepest rotation in the National League or NL East next season, but few teams can match the power and versatility of Teheran and Wood at the top. And over the next five seasons, both hurlers are reasonable candidates for 200-plus strikeouts and 17-plus victories.

DILLARD: The Teheran-Wood dynamic is the de facto correct answer to this initial inquiry, and there's not really a close second place. For the past few months it's become more and more clear that the unfortunate season-ending injuries to Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy and Gavin Floyd -- without which there might never have been an opening in the rotation to get a prolonged look at Wood in a starting role this season -- provided an opportunity for the franchise to get a long collective look at these two 23-year-olds ... and the view was excellent.

But that's all been covered in excess above, and there were other pieces of pitching coach Roger McDowell's handiwork that deserve mention here. For the second consecutive season, the Braves bullpen pitched the second-fewest innings in baseball, but put together quality outings when called upon. The pitching depth the organization has acquired over the past few years shows in the relief corps, one that posted the fourth-best FIP in the majors (3.31), and there's plenty of reason to feel confident in the Craig Kimbrel-led group going forward.

Though the starting rotation outside of Wood and Teheran has some serious question marks entering the offseason, the presence of Kimbrel, David Carpenter, Jordan Walden, Anthony Varvaro, James Russell, Chasen Shreve and Shae Simmons, among other major league and minor league possibilities, should give Atlanta yet another top-10ish bullpen with the game's top closer in 2015. Hanging onto late leads -- whenever they arrive -- should not be an issue.

MCCARTNEY: Chris Johnson still managed to finish in the top 18 in baseball in BABIP at .345, and while no one should have expected him to flirt with his franchise record of .394 from the previous year, it was a major drop off given the investment the Braves made in the third baseman.

Johnson hit .209 over the season's final 20 games, finishing with a .263 average, his worst in three years, and while he's never likely to challenge for a Gold Glove, he had minus-13 DRS, which ranked 22nd among all third basemen.

DILLARD: Perhaps the expectations for Andrelton Simmons's offense were a bit overblown -- including, perhaps even especially, from myself -- after hitting 17 home runs in 2013, but it's difficult not to overlook the regression in the defensive wunderkind's bat. Since breaking into the majors in 2012 straight from Double-A holding onto impressive minor league batting numbers, things have gone downhill at the plate for Simmons.

In terms of weighted runs created plus (wRC+), which measures overall offensive productivity where 100 is league average, he's declined year-to-year from 103 to 91 to a terrible 71 this season. He hit .244/.286/.331 with seven homers, meaning in his third season he regressed in practically every offensive category. There were only five other qualified MLB players that put together worse campaigns at the plate, and it's something Atlanta's staff (whenever it is in place) should focus on turning around this offseason.

The mantra is well-known: As long as the glove stays gold, the rest is just gravy. That's going to get a bit overplayed, though, if things are going to be this bad on an offense that needs all the help it can get. Simmons's track record shows that he's capable of much more offensively than he showed in 2014.

BARDEEN: The easy answer is B.J. Upton and/or Dan Uggla. Upton struggled all season, and struck out 173 times compared to a .208 batting average in 582 plate appearances. Any time your strikeout total almost meets your batting average, there's a problem. Uggla was so bad that he was ultimately benched and released. The problem with calling Upton and/or Uggla disappointments relative to preseason expectations, is the fact that sound judgment shouldn't have led to high expectations in the first place.

Keep in mind: Mike Minor's ERA ballooned to 4.77 from 3.21, and he got worse in just about every measurable ration you can find for a starting pitcher.

CLEMONS: I'll also side with the Aaron Harang runaway vote as the club's biggest surprise -- on two fronts: (1) There were higher expectations reserved for Ervin Santana during the preseason, given his exorbitant one-year salary with Atlanta and his prime pitching age and (2) Harang posted 26 separate starts of three or less earned runs allowed ... which likely doubled my early-April prediction.

As for the disappointments ... it's hard to embrace any major-league team that cannot produce more than three regular starters with on-base percentages above .330.

MCCARTNEY: They've tried 12 different players at leadoff over the past two seasons and Jason Heyward remains the team's best option, with his .343 on-base percentage in 2014 ranking seventh in the majors at the spot among No. 1 hitters with at least 375 at-bats. But the Braves clearly want him to be a run-producer and not a table-setter, meaning priority No. 1 is finding a more prototypical player to top the lineup. They have an intriguing option in Jose Peraza, the organization's minor league player of the year, but could they bring in another option?

CLEMONS: You can never have enough top-shelf starting pitching, and in a perfect world, I'd prefer the Braves secure a long-term starter at the No. 3 spot -- after Teheran and Wood and before Kris Medlen and Mike Minor -- via free agency or trade.

Sure, signing Max Scherzer, Johnny Cueto, James Shields, Jon Lester, Josh Beckett or Yovani Gallardo would be positive moves for the club. But there's also no need to necessarily break the bank for one of the above pitchers when other creative avenues exist in today's marketplace.

What is my vision for the new Braves general manager? I want someone who can identify a high-upside, but struggling pitcher (26 or younger) and execute a stealth trade for the youngster, with the intent of extracting at least four years out of the asset, before unrestricted free agency. It worked for the Detroit Tigers twice this decade, landing both Scherzer (2010) and Doug Fister (2011) from the Diamondbacks and Mariners, respectively -- two high-ceiling, strikeout-centric pitchers who weren't even halfway through their entry-level MLB contracts.

DILLARD: With the resignation of hitting coach Greg Walker comes the opportunity for a complete organizational overhaul of the team's offensive approach. In three seasons under Walker, the Braves were a below-average hitting team, ranking 19th in on-base percentage, 24th in slugging and 18th in weighted runs created plus, despite making some pricey acquisitions on the free agent and trade markets. If there's going to be one culprit for Atlanta's struggles in the postseason lately -- or to even make the postseason -- it's the offense. The Braves could benefit from a more efficiency-based approach: think of Tampa Bay or Oakland or Cleveland or Baltimore, teams with similar or lesser payrolls that have put up far better numbers over that stretch.

There was an interesting story on Pittsburgh's first-year hitting coach Jeff Branson last month and how he transformed the Pirates from the 18th-best offense at getting on base to No. 3 in the span of one season without major acquisitions. Branson's plan sounded simple -- competitive at-bats, two-strike efficiency and effectiveness against off-speed pitches -- but then again he led boasted MLB's No. 4 offense (wRC+) while the Braves kept the Padres company. If Atlanta is going to continue to build its identity around pitching, a new organizational approach to hitting is needed.

BARDEEN: The Braves must find a viable leadoff hitter.

Atlanta used 10 different hitters in the leadoff spot this season, and no one was terribly proficient. Jason Heyward was the best of the bunch, but he's more suited to hit in the No. 2 spot, or maybe even down in the six-hole.

The Braves had trouble scoring runs all season. They ranked 29th in the league, and their 573 runs scored were 200 behind the first-place Los Angeles Angels. If you're team is going to score 200 runs fewer than the best team in baseball, there had better be some pop in the lineup. The Braves didn't have that either, and probably won't be able to bring in a lot of power in the offseason.

But a good leadoff hitter might be easier to find. If the Braves can set the table from the first at-bat, and get more runners on base, maybe they can play small ball. But that plan begins with a leadoff hitter that can be on the bases to be moved from station to station.

DILLARD: I'll push all the Jose Peraza chips into the center of the table. While his position at the major league level remains uncertain, the team's overall performance coupled with his explosive season at two minor league stops this season will make it incredibly difficult for the franchise to keep him away from the 25-man roster in 2015. Projecting as the type of high-OBP, speed-oriented player the team hasn't brought out of its farm system since Rafael Furcal -- he hit .342/.365/.454 at Double-A Mississippi with 60 total steals at two stops -- Peraza could immediately challenge Phil Gosselin and Tommy La Stella for the second base job if spring training started today.

BARDEEN: In the traditional sense of a breakout player, Christian Bethancourt should finally grab the starting catcher's spot for the Braves. His defense is going to amaze people, and we saw glimpses of his bat being ready for the big leagues too. He's never going to be a big-time threat on offense, but Bethancourt is going to save runs with his defense and superbly manage this pitching staff. It's kind of tough for s guy with that skill set to be a household name outside the city he plays in, but Bethancourt has the ability to be that guy who's referred to as the best catcher most people don't know.

From a non-traditional standpoint, Heyward needs to breakout offensively.

From the third pitch of Heyward's career when he literally made Turner Field shake with his first-at-bat home run, the hype surrounding this home-grown prospect was unreal. While Heyward might be the best defensive player in the league, and his Defensive Wins Above Replacement of 2.8 is incredibly stout, his bat has never come around like many expected. Heyward's power numbers have dropped in each of the last three seasons, and so has his OPS-plus. If he could find a way to get back to the 20-20 level he enjoyed in 2012, he could completely be called a breakout player. And remember, he's still just barely 25 years old.

CLEMONS: The Braves don't have a single asset in MLB.com's listing of the Top 50 prospects -- although middle infielder Jose Peraza (52nd overall) barely misses that subjective countdown.

So, let's answer this question in a different way: The next Braves wunderkind for 2015 ... currently doesn't belong to the organization. (The next GM better be well-versed in the Art Of Making Trades At The Winter Meetings.)

MCCARTNEY: Chasen Shreve was put into a number of high-leverage situations this past season and thrived with a 0.73 ERA and 15 strikeouts over 12 1/3 innings. He wasn't dominant against left-handers with a .273 batting average against compared to .167 vs. righties, but he's shown flashes. It remains to be seen if Luis Avilan is able to regain his '13 form after a roller-coaster season or if James Russell and his reverse split (.284 vs. lefties, .165 against righties) can be the left-hander the Braves need in late innings. Shreve could fill that role.

CLEMONS: This prediction shall remain fluid over the next 4-6 months. But right here, right now, I would earmark the 2015 Braves for 84-86 wins -- with the hopes of competing for second place in the National League East and one of the NL wild-card slots. From my perspective, the Marlins and Mets are primed to take substantial steps forward next year -- and the reconstituted Braves must adjust on the fly.

BARDEEN: I'm of the opinion that the Braves aren't moving forward as fast as the majority of the NL East.

The Nationals are already a step ahead, that was evident this season. But I believe the Mets are in a position (especially with their pitching staff) to be better than the Braves moving forward, and so are the Marlins. In fact, I think Washington, New York and Miami all could have better pitching in 2015 than Atlanta. And since the Braves struggle so mightily at the plate, they're going to have trouble keeping pace with the these three teams.

There's not much danger in falling to dead last in the division; the Phillies have a stranglehold on that spot. But there should be no joy in looking ahead, and seeing the Braves as a fourth-place team. But that's likely how they'll be ranked.​

MCCARTNEY: The Nationals remain the class of the division. They had one major hole, second base, and they've filled it if they can re-sign Asdrubal Cabrera. Meanwhile, the Marlins and Mets have young, enviable pitching staffs and star power at the plate with David Wright (New York) and Giancarlo Stanton (Miami). Should the Braves recapture their 2013 ways, when the home run was the backbone of their offense, they can rival Washington for a division title. But if we see a continuation of the same offense we saw in '13, Atlanta will be once again fighting the Marlins and Mets for second place.

DILLARD: There are plenty of reasons to be terrified of NL East pitching next season. The Nationals' ridiculous rotation just posted the second-best collective WAR this season and should return intact with room for improvement. The Marlins return Cy Young threat Jose Fernandez to a talented group that features Nathan Eovaldi and Henderson Alvarez at the top. The Mets might even be better with ace Matt Harvey returning to the fold with NL Rookie of the Year favorite Jacob deGrom and Zack Wheeler. The Braves' pitching prowess has been well-covered.

The bad news in all of this is that the Braves should only feel confident about 40 percent of its staff (Teheran, Wood) and they feature the division's lowest-scoring offense, though the Phillies were not any better in 2014. So if the Braves pitching dips off and the offense is not significantly improved, they could be in serious trouble. As a whole, the division was down this season. Atlanta needs to keep up.

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