When No. 17 Arizona State and No. 14 UCLA meet at the Rose Bowl on Saturday, the stakes could hardly be higher in a regular-season game.
For the Sun Devils, the contest offers a chance to clinch the Pac-12 South and earn a place in the conference championship game. It's also a chance to surpass last season's win total with another three games to play, the last of which they hope will be a return trip to the Rose Bowl.
For the Bruins, this game is must-win for their chances of capturing a third straight Pac-12 South crown. A win would set them up to clinch at the Coliseum against USC next week and further establish themselves as a Pac-12 power.
If last year's game is any indication, this should be another close one. From the meeting of top-tier quarterbacks to the trench battles, the matchup provides plenty of intrigue beyond the obvious ramifications.
FOXSportsArizona.com's ASU writer Tyler Lockman and the Orange County Register's UCLA writer Ryan Kartje report on their respective beats daily. Here, they break down Saturday's big game via five key questions. Both can be followed on Twitter at @TylerLockman and @Ryan_Kartje.
1. This is the second straight year these two teams will meet with major Pac-12 South implications, with this year's stakes even higher than last year's. What does that say about where these two programs stand right now?
Kartje: It's definitely a sign that things are trending in the right direction. In Los Angeles, the culture at UCLA has changed completely in the two years since Jim Mora took over. The Bruins have one of the youngest teams in the country and are still in good shape to fight for a bid to the Rose Bowl, and that says something about not only the talent that Mora and his staff has brought in but also the impressive job they've done coaching this group over the past 24 games. It's been a pretty drastic change in the span, and Arizona State seems to be in a similar spot. Between both teams, there's a lot of hope for the future. I imagine we'll see a few more matchups with a lot on the line in the coming seasons.
Lockman: Both programs are indeed on the rise. Todd Graham has instilled a culture of accountability and belief that seems to have ASU playing at a level more fitting of the talent it has been able to bring in over the past decade or so. The Sun Devils are unlocking their potential and handling success late in the year like past teams could not. Both these teams have a new attitude under their respective second-year coaches, and its one of determination. Neither is willing to exist any longer in the shadow of traditional power USC (which, to be fair, has faced unusual circumstances throughout the existence of the Pac-12), nor are they willing to accept past perceptions about them. Right now, both seem to be jockeying for the No. 3 spot in the conference, behind Oregon and Stanford, but they're also still hoping to surpass those two. These programs are in good hands and, as you mentioned, should be seeing plenty more of each other in high-stakes situations over the next few seasons.
2. Taylor Kelly and Brett Hundley are both versatile quarterbacks who can hurt teams with their legs and pass effectively. Whose performance has the greater impact on this game?
Kartje: I would argue that Brett Hundley's performance is more important to UCLA's chances this Saturday. When Hundley isn't on his game, UCLA's offense has collapsed. His two worst games have come in the Bruins' two losses -- to Stanford and to Oregon -- in which he averaged just 127 yards passing and two interceptions per game. With Noel Mazzone's offense, the passing game opens things up for the running game, not the other way around, so without Hundley either passing or running effectively, the offense runs out of options quick. Leaning on Myles Jack to get tough yards has helped lessen that burden a bit, but UCLA won't beat Arizona State without Hundley making big plays. Fortunately for UCLA, he happens to be pretty good at making them. Arizona State definitely needs Taylor Kelly to have a good game, but with Marion Grice in the backfield, Arizona State has a versatile weapon at running back who could take over even if Kelly isn't at his best.
Lockman: I have to agree, and you pretty much covered it. ASU wants to make Hundley one-dimensional, as the defense confident it has the secondary to limit UCLA's passing game and the front seven to corral Hundley on the ground. His performance is the key to that whole offense. That said, if Kelly comes with his best stuff, it could be a total game-changer. He's been a little off the past two weeks, and ASU has won in spite of that, but Kelly is due. When he is effective as a passer and a rusher, ASU's offense is downright scary. Kelly has rushed for more than 50 yards and passed for more than 270 in three games this season. In those games, ASU outscored its opponents (USC, Washington and Washington State) by an average of 28 points. Hundley's performance will matter more to his team, but Kelly's could tip this one heavily in ASU's favor.
3. ASU's defense has come on strong lately and now ranks first in the Pac-12. UCLA's offense is rolling behind Myles Jack and Brett Hundley. What's one thing the team you cover does, on either side, that could create problems for its opponent this week? (Can be a concept, a player, etc.)
Kartje: Even UCLA's coaches might not be totally sure what they're going to do with Myles Jack this Saturday, and that sense of surprise might be their best weapon against one of the best defenses they've faced all season. Against Washington last week, Jack had four touchdowns despite the Huskies' defense knowing what was coming on almost every play on which he was on the field. I expect we'll see a few more wrinkles in how Mazzone uses Jack this week -- maybe sending him off in the flat or putting in a new run play -- but Jack has been so good, albeit in a small sample size, that it's hard to see him struggling, even if Arizona State stacks the box to stop him. If that happens, UCLA won't hesitate to use him as a decoy, which could open things downfield. UCLA has purposefully moved Jack along slowly, and as long as the schemes continue to get more complicated, defenses will continue to be forced into making mid-game adjustments to stop him. But focusing too much on Jack likely means challenging Brett Hundley to pass against man coverage, a strategy that has burned Pac-12 defenses in the past. How Arizona State goes about balancing those two threats will go a long way in deciding the game.
Lockman: ASU's strength in so many games this season has been its ability to pressure teams with its aggressive defense, and that could be an even greater advantage this week again UCLA's young starting offensive line. The group, though experienced at this point, should include three freshmen this week, and that has to make ASU's defensive linemen salivate a bit. In Will Sutton (who was out injured when these teams met last season), Gannon Conway and the rotation of Jaxon Hood and Davon Coleman, ASU has one of top defensive lines in the conference. The numbers don't show that over the course of the season, as ASU played some elite offensive lines early in the year, but this line -- and really the whole front seven -- has come alive amid ASU's five-game winning streak. There should be some mismatches up front, and if ASU can take advantage, the pressure should disrupt Hundley's ability to get the offense going. Keep an eye on linebacker Carl Bradford, who was benched in the second half last week after a sideline argument with Todd Graham, as he had nine tackles and two sacks against UCLA last year.
4. Both teams have capable scoring offenses, with ASU ranking second and UCLA third in the Pac-12 in points, and can move the ball. Could we be looking at a shootout-type game, or will this one be won on defense?
Kartje: Arizona State's defense hasn't allowed any of its last five opponents to score more than 24 points, but I think we'll see that change this week. After struggling against Oregon and Stanford, Hundley has bounced back during UCLA's most recent three-game win streak. With an increasing sense of confidence in his young offensive line and better timing with his receivers, he's due for a big game on a big stage. And the Bruins will also likely have Jordon James back to couple with Jack in the backfield. So I think we'll see a high-scoring game, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if it's one team's defense that decides the outcome late. On paper, these two offenses are about as similarly matched as it gets, and if they spend most of Saturday's game going blow for blow, I expect that we'll see a key fourth-quarter defensive play change the game. There are a lot of top-flight defensive playmakers in this matchup, so whoever makes fewer mistakes on offense will probably emerge from this one with the keys to the Pac-12 title game.
Lockman: I don't think we'll be looking at an extremely high-scoring game, but both teams could easily crack 30. When it comes to defense, ASU has a pretty clear edge on paper. The Sun Devils have the Pac-12's top-ranked defense while UCLA's ranks ninth. ASU's passing defense ranks fourth, UCLA's sixth. ASU's run defense ranks second, UCLA's eighth. Rankings don't always translate to games, but ASU's defense right now is playing lights-out. The unit has held its last three opponents to 128.3 fewer offensive yards than they averaged entering the game, and after four interceptions last week, it's tied for the conference lead in that category. The Bruins' defense seems prone to giving up big plays, and you will likely see the Sun Devils take more than few shots over the top. However, UCLA also has some serious defensive difference-makers in Anthony Barr, Jack, Eric Kendricks and Eddie Vanderdoes. The defensive battle is a sneaky-good storyline in this game, and I think it could be the difference for one team.
5. Who will win this game, by what score, and why?
Kartje: It's a near-guarantee that this one will be close, and I expect nothing less than to watch it come down to the wire. But I think Arizona State's defense might be a little too much for UCLA to handle in this one. The Bruins were smothered by Stanford -- the only defense better than ASU's in the Pac-12 -- and with such a young offensive line and an uncertain situation at running back, UCLA's offense has a lot of question marks to work out. That being said, it's unwise to underestimate Myles Jack. And if Brett Hundley can have his best game of the season -- and I do think he's due -- UCLA could definitely win. But with a Pac-12 South title there for the taking, I don't see Arizona State letting that opportunity slip through its grasp, especially given how their matchup ended last season. 31-27 ASU.
Lockman: I haven't had this much trouble picking a game all season, and ASU has had some tough ones, but I picked ASU to win the South knowing it would likely come down to this game, so I have to go with the Sun Devils. I'll say by a score of 38-28, and I know that's a pretty bold margin to predict. I just can't see this one being a blowout in either direction, and when all the individual elements get broken down, I think ASU has the edge. Like you noted, the defense is just playing too well right now to think it won't have a serious impact on UCLA's ability to move the ball and score. The secondary, especially, has been dominant of late and just has to prevent the big play. Of the Pac-12's top four defenses (ASU, Stanford, Oregon, USC), UCLA has lost to two and plays the others this week and next. On the other side, I think ASU has the weapons -- Marion Grice, a healthy Jaelen Strong, D.J. Foster -- to exploit UCLA's defensive shortcomings. Then there's the intangible: desire. The Sun Devils want this one bad, and I think that will impact their performance and help produce a win and a spot in the Pac-12 title game.
