A look at possible playoff opponents, scenarios for Bucks
With four games remaining on the schedule, there's quite a bit left to be decided in the Eastern Conference playoff race.
At 38-40, the Milwaukee Bucks currently hold the No. 6 spot by two games over Boston and Brooklyn and are in the playoffs by three games over Indiana and Miami.
The Bucks can clinch a playoff berth Friday with a win over the New York Knicks combined with either a Boston loss at Cleveland or an Indiana loss at Detroit. Since Milwaukee holds the tiebreaker over Miami, one more win by the Bucks would make it impossible for the Heat to pass Milwaukee.
Two more wins would put the Bucks in great shape to hold onto the No. 6 seed. Brooklyn would then need to win out, including beating Milwaukee on Sunday, to catch the Bucks.
Going 2-2 is very realistic, especially considering the Bucks still play the lowly Knicks and Sixers.
After facing New York at Madison Square Garden on Friday, Milwaukee returns home for a crucial Sunday afternoon game against Brooklyn. The Bucks then play in Philadelphia on Monday before wrapping up the regular season with a home game against Boston on Wednesday.
Here's a look at the most likely potential opponents the Bucks could see in the first round of the playoffs:
It is important that the Bucks hold on to the No. 6 seed in order to avoid a first-round series with the NBA's best team since Jan. 15 (32-7).
Milwaukee has played Cleveland tough this season, dating back to a 111-108 loss to the Cavaliers on Dec. 2 at Quicken Loans Arena. Both teams look drastically different from that night. The Bucks had Jabari Parker and Larry Sanders in the starting lineup, while Brandon Knight led Milwaukee with 27 points. LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love combined for 81 points in a game the Bucks led by three with 4:44 to play.
It is hard to even include Milwaukee's 96-80 victory in Cleveland on New Year's Eve since James and Love didn't play. Knight scored 26 points in a game the Bucks controlled from start to finish.
While the Bucks made a significant deadline deal, Cleveland changed its roster around in January. The Cavaliers were able to dump Dion Waiters and add key pieces J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert in a three-team trade with Oklahoma City and New York. Two days later, Cleveland sent a pair of first-round picks to Denver for center Timofey Mozgov.
The Cavaliers are the NBA's best team since James returned from a rest period on Jan. 13.
Milwaukee is 0-2 against the current Cleveland roster. The Bucks were up 11 in the third quarter on March 22 before Smith and James sparked a 26-5 run that allowed Cleveland to run away with a 108-90 victory at the BMO Harris Bradley Center.
The Bucks hung tough with the Cavaliers on Wednesday before James hit a dagger 3-pointer with 14.1 seconds left to lock up a 104-99 victory for Cleveland. Michael Carter-Williams scored a career-high 30 points for a Bucks team playing without Giannis Antetokounmpo for undisclosed reasons.
Toronto is currently tied with Chicago for No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Raptors have the tiebreaker over the Bulls because they won their division.
The Bucks played arguably their worst game of the season in Toronto on Nov. 22. Toronto hit 15 3-pointers and grabbed 57 rebounds en route to a 124-82 embarrassment of Milwaukee at Air Canada Centre.
Terrence Ross hit two critical baskets in the final minute of Toronto's 92-89 victory in Milwaukee on Jan. 19. The Bucks shot 44.7 percent but allowed 20 offensive rebounds. Six Raptors scored in double figures, led by Ross with 16 points. Knight scored a game-high 20 points but was the only Bucks player in double figures.
One of Milwaukee's more improbable wins came Feb. 2 in Toronto. Playing with just eight guys after O.J. Mayo was ejected in the second quarter, the Bucks grabbed an early lead and held on for an 82-75 victory. Knight didn't play with a sprained ankle, while Ersan Ilyasova and Zaza Pachulia were also out. Milwaukee missed 15 straight field-goal attempts in the second half and scored just nine fourth-quarter points but held on behind a 25-point night from Khris Middleton.
The Raptors, just 24-26 since Dec. 21, would provide the Bucks their best shot at keeping a first-round series competitive. Lowry has missed Toronto's last 12 games with back spasms, while Johnson might not be ready in time for the first round due to a sprained ankle.
The Bucks should be really hoping the Raptors can hold on to the No. 3 seed. While Chicago isn't currently playing its best basketball, the Bulls have long controlled the I-94 rivalry.
Two of Milwaukee's three losses to Chicago this season have been close. The Bulls pulled away late for a 95-86 victory at the BMO Harris Bradley Center on Nov. 5, while Pau Gasol's 46-point night allowed Chicago to hold on for a 95-87 win at the United Center on Jan. 10.
The Bulls stomped the Bucks, 87-71, in Chicago on Feb. 23. Milwaukee was playing just its second game after making a blockbuster three-team trade, while Carter-Williams sat out with a right foot injury. Chicago held a 62-41 advantage on the glass, as reserves Tony Snell and Nikola Mirotic had big games to overcome off nights from Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler.
Milwaukee finally snapped its nine-game home losing streak to Chicago with a 95-91 victory at the Bradley Center on April 2. With Rose out, Carter-Williams took advantage of the undersized Aaron Brooks to score 21 points and grab 10 rebounds. The Bulls still had a chance to tie late despite committing 13 second-half turnovers, missing 13 free throws and going just 5 of 26 from 3-point range.
Chicago is getting healthy at the right time, which is bad news for Milwaukee. Add in the fact Bulls fans would invade the Bradley Center as they usually do, and this would be a bad matchup for the Bucks.
Follow Andrew Gruman on Twitter