TUCSON, Ariz. -- Arizona Wildcats coach Sean Miller can't look past this weekend. It does him no good. It's a different story for the rest of us, eager to peek to the possibilities of the Sweet 16 and beyond.
A national talking point is the dominance of unbeaten Kentucky -- would you bet on those Wildcats or the field to cut down the nets on April 6 in Indianapolis?
Among that field, Arizona, seeded second in the West, is near the top of the favorites. What would it take for Miller and his Cats to climb the ladder at Lucas Oil Stadium? Here are five things:
Overall, Arizona is better and more efficient offensively than it gets credit for. But the Wildcats have a penchant for standing around too much on offense, especially when confronted with a zone (so beware of Baylor in a potential Sweet 16 matchup).
Late in the regular season against UCLA, whose zone and athleticism mirror the kind of teams Arizona is soon to face, the Wldcats had scoring droughts of 6:05 and 6:51 to begin each half. Against UCLA again in the Pac-12 tournament, the Wildcats went 5:56 without scoring.
Still, there are a couple of positive trends here.
Junior forward Brandon Ashley is hot, averaging 19 points in the past five games, shooting 71.1 percent from the field (32 of 45) and earning Most Outstanding Player honors of the Pac-12 tourney. He's turned into Arizona's zone buster, able to the get the ball at the top of the key and either hit a long jumper or use his body control to drive for a contorted layup.
"It's like he can't miss," said center Kaleb Tarczewski. "When he's playing like that, he can take our team to another level."
Likewise, super sub Gabe York can bust zones, having hit at least two 3-pointers in seven of the past eight games. He's 19 of 39 from beyond the arc in that span. Arizona isn't a volume 3-point shooting team, but it has enough to be a threat.
Miller's teams are always going to be built on these twin principles, and the Wildcats are designed perfectly for his pack-line defense -- long on the wings, big in the post, athletic with its on-ball pressure. Arizona holds opponents to 39.2 percent shooting and leads the nation in defensive rebounding, allowing foes to grab just 22.3 percent of their missed shots.
"We try hard to out-physical anyone we play," Tarczewski said.
Said FOX Sports and Pac-12 Networks analyst Kevin O'Neill about the Wildcats: "They're bionic on the defensive end."
Arizona, as it did against Oregon in the Pac-12 tournament final and as it should do Thursday vs. Texas Southern, can crush the soul of a team with an undersized lineup. On those days when Arizona's own shots aren't falling for stretches, its defense and rebounding should travel just fine to Portland and Los Angeles and Indianapolis.
Nobody gets far in the NCAA Tournament without great guard play, and Arizona has that with senior point guard T.J. McConnell. He is on track to become the only Arizona player in the past 30-plus years to average six assists per game (6.4) with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3-to-1 (3.25-to-1).
Think about that: Steve Kerr didn't do that, and neither did Damon Stoudamire, Mike Bibby, Jason Terry or Jason Gardner. What McConnell needs now is at least a Final Four appearance to truly join the pantheon of great Arizona point guards.
For those coming from a national perspective, when you think of McConnell, think of former Ohio State point guard Aaron Craft ... but better.
McConnell's story is the most unlikely of anybody on the Arizona roster. The former two-star recruit, who began his career at Duquesne, is in the same lineup as four players who were all national top 10 prospects.
"You look at the season that he's had, and the leadership that he's displayed," Miller said. "Not until you see him out there will everyone completely realize how terrific of a player he is and also what a great teammate and leader he is."
McConnell played the best ball of his career during the Pac-12 season, becoming more than a passer. Often using a ball screen to shake free of his defender, McConnell become deadly with a mid-range jumper when the defense filled the passing lanes instead of challenging his shot. He hit nearly 58 percent of his 2-point shots in league play, most on about 15-foot jumpers.
It's not unsual to find the defensive-minded Rondae Hollis-Jefferson diving on the court for a loose ball.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, a 6-foot-7 wing whose size and defensive skills draw comparisons to former UNLV great Stacey Augmon, is the kind of defensive ace who can shut down the opponent's top scorer -- no matter if that player is a point guard or a power forward.
"He's like the Energizer Bunny," Ashley said.
Said McConnell: "That kid is a freak. He's the best defender in the country."
Hollis-Jefferson needs to be on the court to prove it; nobody else on the roster can duplicate his skills.
In a loss to UNLV before Christmas, Hollis-Jefferson picked up his third foul late in the first half and fouled out with 7:14 to go. Arizona then had no answer for the Rebels' two potential NBA wings, Christian Wood and Rashad Vaughn, who combined for 45 points.
To get out of the West, Arizona might have to get by No. 1 seed Wisconsin, which knocked out the Wildcats in the regional final last season. The narrative at the time was that Arizona could have really used Ashley, who was out with a foot injury, to match up with the inside-outside skills of Badgers' big man Frank Kaminsky. Advantage Arizona this time around?
And let's face it: To win the title, the Wildcars almost assuredly are going to have to beat Kentucky in a Final Four matchup. Can Arizona do it?
Arizona matches up as well with Kentucky as anybody -- size, length, talent, starting lineup -- and is the equal of the Kentucky when it comes to an ability to grind teams into submission. The key here would be Arizona's 7-foot center Kaleb Tarczewski showing up with one of the games of his life.
(The matchup of coaches would be fascinating, too, with John Calipari having recruited Miller to Pitt, and their familes entwined long before that.)
My aunt has been sending me old clips. Look how young @UACoachMiller and I look. pic.twitter.com/fHSQPqDPVq
— John Calipari (@UKCoachCalipari) March 16, 2015
The emotional factors line up nicely. Arizona loves to play the "no respect" angle, so getting bypassed for a No. 1 seed was just fine. A rematch with Wisconsin? Bring it on. Toppling Kentucky? Just tell Arizona it can't do it. All the pressure would be on the other Wildcats.
Arizona lost three games this season, all on the road, when they generally played lousy and the other team played out of its mind. The Cats lost by a total of nine points.
Even on one of its bad days, Arizona is really, really hard to beat. If it has six good days in the next few weeks, it could very well be cutting down the nets.
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