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2014 Fantasy Football Duh-brief: What I Learned

Published Dec. 31, 2014 10:57 a.m. ET

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Ryan Fowler

The Curious Case of LeSean McCoy

Anybody remember the 2014 fantasy football player with the top average draft position?

LeSean McCoy was the top draft pick in 64 percent of leagues on FOXSports.com.  By season’s end he ranked 12th in points scored among running backs in standard and PPR leagues.  After averaging 20.6 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues during the 2013 season, McCoy’s production dipped to 12.5 FPPG this season.  He ranked 66th in points scored among all fantasy players in PPR leagues – three spots ahead of Matt Asiata and two spots behind Eagles rookie receiver Jordan Matthews.

Where have all the fantasy points gone?  Well, one could start with the fact McCoy scored seven fewer touchdowns this season – goodbye 42 fantasy points.  After scoring 11 total touchdowns in 2013, McCoy finished with five scores this season, while Darren Sproles and Chris Polk combined for 10 touchdowns.

However, where fantasy owners felt burned the most was in the Eagles’ passing game.  McCoy caught 65 passes for 539 yards in 2013, but only 37 passes for 155 yards this past season.  So, McCoy scored about seven fantasy points per game in the passing game in 2013, but barely managed three fantasy points per game via Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez.

Although Sproles didn’t score via a reception, he gutted McCoy’s production in the pass game as he finished with 63 receptions for 387 yards.

While I believe McCoy remains a RB1 for 2015, until Sproles moves on or retires, fantasy owners should expect more of the same statistical production in the receiving game for the foreseeable future.

When you combine Sproles’ PPR-league impact with Polk’s tendency to vulture carries inside the five yard and the Eagles offensive line woes, McCoy’s owners may have to stomach longer stretches without trips to the end zone - remember he went more than 20 quarters without a score in 2014 - and invest heavily in a RB2/RB3 early in their 2015 fantasy drafts.

Here are some more three and out thoughts as we look ahead to the 2015 season …

Quarterbacks

Andrew Luck averaged 27 fantasy points per game to lead all fantasy players during 2014 season.  However, in the last seven games of the season – including fantasy playoffs – Luck averaged just 21.3 FPPG with 11 turnovers.

Tony Romo averaged 27 fantasy points over the last four games of the season.  He will turn 35 years old this April, but if the Cowboys offensive line continues to protect their quarterback Romo remains a must-own QB1 in 2015.

Top 10 scoring quarterbacks from 2013 who didn’t make the cut in 2014: Andy Dalton, Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, and Matthew Stafford.

Who replaced them?  Ryan Tannehill, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers who missed seven games in 2013.

Running Backs

From Weeks 10-17, C.J. Anderson averaged 24.4 fantasy points per game.  During that stretch he caught 30 of 39 passes for 290 yards with two receiving touchdowns.

Who led the NFL in rushes for greater than 20 yards?  Baltimore’s Justin Forsett with 17.  He made “only” $730,000 this year or $447 per yard gained.

With the assumption that Adrian Peterson does NOT return to Minnesota next season, remember Jerick McKinnon and the excitement surrounding his fantasy potential before his season-ending back injury?

In games where McKinnon received double-digit carries (six), he averaged 11.85 fantasy points in PPR leagues.  In games where Matt Asiata received double-digit carries (10), he averaged 17.36 fantasy points per game.

Wide Receivers

In PPR leagues, four rookie receivers ranked inside the Top 25 in points scored: Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin and Jordan Matthews.  Expand that range out to the Top 50 and seven rookie receivers made the cut.

I like Jarvis Landry.  If the Dolphins offensive coordinator Bill Lazor rethinks Landry’s role within the scheme, he could do some major damage in 2015.  However, for now, he has all the makings of Danny Amendola 2.0.

During the fantasy football playoffs – Week 13-16 – Landry caught 30 passes – third-most in the NFL during that stretch.  The rub was those 30 receptions racked up just 253 yards with no touchdowns.

At his best Calvin Johnson is the best receiver in the NFL.  However, three variables impact him remaining the best heading into the 2015 season.  One of those is Matthew Stafford and his 60.3 completion percentage (ranked 25th), Golden Tate’s targets per game (9.0 TPG in 2014) and Megatron’s health.  He’s now missed five games over the past two seasons after missing only four games combined during his first six seasons.

Antonio Brown’s, Demaryius Thomas’, Randall Cobb’s consistency, Jordy Nelson’s and Dez Bryant’s nose for the end zone, and the influx of rookie receiver talent led by Odell Beckham will place pressure on re-draft league owners when the second round rolls around.  With a higher-than-ever premium on securing a RB1 and the names mentioned above, Could Calvin Johnson slip to the third round in 2015?

Tight Ends

From Weeks 9-17, some new blood ranked inside the Top 12 (TE1) tight ends in scoring.

Coby Fleener averaged 14.8 fantasy points.  Travis Kelce averaged 12.75 much to the delight of John Halpin.  Mychal Rivera averaged 12.1 although his point peaks were uber-high and floor uber-low.

Charles Clay missed two games, but managed to score more than 11 fantasy points five times during the second half of the season.

Heath Miller averaged 11.5 fantasy points per game the final six weeks of the season.  Not bad for the 32-year-old tight end.

Remember Ladarius Green fever?  Antonio Gates had the cure as he averaged 13.9 fantasy points per game (ranked 3rd - PPR), while averaging 16 fantasy points per game the final five games of the season.

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