Baltimore Ravens

Week 14 NFL picks against the spread, ranked in order of confidence | J-MAC’S NFL SUPER 6

Published Dec. 7, 2019 6:56 p.m. ET

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Jason McIntyre

If Week 13 was the week that killed your survivor pool - the Eagles and Panthers lost as double digit favorites - I might suggest you bet on the teasers. As the season progresses, the lines get tighter. Historically I've done well early ... but had some late-season struggles as I don't adjust the way Vegas does. (I guess they know what they are doing, should I be surprised?) My secret to teasers has always been to go through the key numbers of 3 and 7.

If you can take the Rams from pick to +7, the Eagles down from -9.5 to 2.5, the Browns from -7 down to pick, and the 49ers up from +2.5 to +9.5 ... you could have a winner. The Rams have a favorable matchup with the Seahawks in what should be a close game. The Eagles have won nine of 10 from the Giants, who are starting a fossil (Eli Manning) at quarterback. The Browns should be able to run all over the Bengals and win even if Baker Mayfield struggles. And finally, the 49ers have only been beaten twice all year - both times on late field goals.

Los Angeles Rams +1 vs. Seattle Seahawks

Well folks, the Rams are getting zero respect at home. And you know me, of course, I’m going to back them. I really like them against Seattle - I know, I know everybody is loving the Seahawks ... they also beat the Rams in their earlier meeting. But let’s not forget: That was only because of a miss by Greg “the leg” Zuerlein in the final seconds that would have won them the game.

Right now, Seattle is one of the hottest teams in the league … they’ve won five in a row. We just saw them beat up on Minnesota on Monday Night football. Sorry folks, I don’t care about any of that. Jared Goff, Todd Gurley, Jalen Ramsey - Ramsey missed the earlier meeting because he had not been traded yet … I think he’s a big factor in the secondary. I love the Rams to win and beat the Seahawks at home.

Indianapolis Colts +3.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Boy, Indianapolis really killed me last week … they led 17-7 against Tennessee, and then just got destroyed down the stretch. But I just have to back them again. First of all, Tampa Bay does not play well as a favorite - they have been favored three times this year … and they are 0-3 against the spread.

Second of all, they simply should not be favored. The reason everybody loves them is because they have beat up on bad pass defenses in the last two weeks. The Colts are 10th against the pass - they will shut down Jameis, they will intercept Jamies and they will win this game. Give me Indianapolis getting three on the road against Tampa.

New England Patriots -3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Folks, everybody is going to want to take the Chiefs because the Patriots have been struggling … but just a friendly reminder: Tom Brady after a loss is 35-13 against the spread. That’s 73%. I’m sorry, how can you not take New England bouncing back? I'll take the Pats favored by three at home.

Washington Redskins +13 at Green Bay Packers

Well, this line opened at 14 … and it’s down to 13. Here’s the reason: (it’s simple) Green Bay is 28th in the league against the run. What is Washington good at? Running the football. That’s how they beat Carolina last week. I think they slow this down and beat the Packers - I'll back the Redskins getting 13 points in Green Bay.

New Orleans Saints -2.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers

Here's a Super 6 game for you! And I really like the Saints here … I bet you’re wondering, how are they only favored by two and a half at home? Well, here’s the reason: It’s the niners folks. This is the third straight division leader the San Francisco will play. They crushed Green Bay at home, then they traveled to Baltimore - had a physical game against the Ravens - flew home … and now they have to fly to New Orleans.

This is just too tall order for the 49ers. Remember: This is a team that had the bye early in the season. They just have an absolutely brutal schedule down the stretch … they still have to play the Rams and the Seahawks. I have a sneaky feeling this is a dangerous spot for them. Give me the Saints favored by 2.5 at home.

Baltimore Ravens -6.5 at Buffalo Bills

Another Super 6! This is a weird line, isn’t it? It opened big ... but it’s come down a bit, which tells you there’s some backing for the Bills out there - but I like the Ravens. Let me break it down for you: When you look at the matchups, Buffalo struggles to stop the run. Now ask yourself, what does Baltimore do better than anyone in the league? Run the football. This is a big Mark Ingram Lamar Jackson game.

And if we look at the Bill’s offense, everyone saw them beat up on the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Not to mention, they’ve had some extra time to prepare for this game … but that Baltimore defense - the secondary is very strong. I just have to think Josh Allen will struggle against Marcus Peters and the Ravens.

Important note: If it comes down to special teams, Baltimore has a huge edge … their kicker, Justin Tucker, is the best in the league. He’s made 38-straight field goals in the fourth quarter. That’s just absurd. I'm all over the Ravens favored by 6.5 on the road.

Arizona Cardinals +2 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

This is the first true road start for Devlin "Duck" Hodges the new Pittsburgh quarterback. Everyone is patting the Steelers on the back this week … saying Mike Tomlin deserves coach of the year. But hold on folks, they’ve beaten one team that currently has a winning record - The Rams at home because of an outstanding performance by the Pittsburgh defense. They did absolutely nothing offensively.

I know the Cardinals just got blown out at home by the Rams coming off a bye … but I like them here. Here’s the reason: Running quarterbacks have given the Steelers problems - Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson both beat Pittsburgh. I think Kyler Murray shows up. I'll take Arizona getting two points at home.

Detroit Lions +12.5 at Minnesota Vikings

Coming at you with a Super 6! I know you’re going to be worried that I like Detroit here, and yes, I do ... and getting a lot of points. Let me start here: The Vikings are 0-4-1 against the spread in their last five as a double-digit favorites - it’s just tough to cover that double-digit number, especially in a divisional game.

David Blough is going to be the starter for the Lions. Something to consider: Detroit played Thanksgiving … Minnesota played on Monday night. There is a huge rest advantage for the Lions. And my final note here: Since Mike Daniels, their big defensive tackle returned, nobody has rushed for more than 90 yards against the Lions. He is a great stopper of the run … plus Dalvin Cook got pretty banged in that Monday night game. I like Detroit covering 12.5 on the road.

Cleveland Browns -7 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Okay, this line has come down from 10.5 to seven … so there is some backing of the Bengals. Baker Mayfield suffered that hand injury in the loss to the Steelers, but right now it looks like he’s going to play. Either way, I like the Browns. Here's a fun note: Cincinnati has the worst run defense in the league - giving up 157 yards per game ... oh and Nick Chubb, he leads the NFL in rushing. Give me Cleveland favored by seven at home.

Denver Broncos +8.5 at Houston Texans

Everybody loves the Texans who just beat Tom Brady and the Patriots on Sunday Night Football … but guess what? Houston was an underdog - they don’t play as well as favorites. They are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games as a favorite of eight or more points.

Also consider: Denver is 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games. Drew Lock even won outright against the Chargers last week in his first career start ... I think the Broncos can hang around. I'll bet on Denver getting 8.5 on the road.

Atlanta Falcons -3.5 vs. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are just reeling right now … they fired their head coach Rob Rivera earlier this week. And add this to the mix: They’ve been dominated by the Falcons in the last eight games - just 1-7 against the spread. Carolina pounded Atlanta a couple weeks back 29-3, so I see the Falcons coming for blood. I’ve got to take Atlanta here favored by 3.5 at home.

Oakland Raiders +3 vs. Tennessee Titans

This is the toughest game on the board to pick because of the ultimate question: Is Oakland going to show up? Well, they haven’t the last two weeks … getting destroyed by the Jets and the Chiefs. But, I think finally at home, they come to play. They’ve been 7-2 against the spread in their last nine home games. Not to mention, Tennessee is a little overvalued here. I’ll take the Raiders getting three points at home.

New York Jets -5.5 vs. Miami Dolphins

I know what you’re asking … how on earth are the Jets favored over anybody? They just lost to the Bengals who hadn’t won a game, and the Dolphins are coming off a win over the Eagles. It’s risky to back the Jets as a favorite - you can’t forget: They are 0-3 against the spread this year when favored. But I don’t care. Adam Gase is straight up embarrassed again after the Cincinnati loss, and to add fuel to the fire, he wants revenge on his old club. I like the Jets to win and cover 5.5 at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Boy, the Jaguars look like they’ve thrown in the towel … 0-4 against the spread in their last four games. But I’ve got a sneaky suspicion Minshew Mania will show up in Jacksonville this week. I like the Jags in this spot. You’re giving me 3.5 points at home against the Chargers … with a coaching staff that is really struggling. The kickers are not very good -  too many mistakes every week. I'm all over Jacksonville getting 3.5.

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