NASCAR Cup Series

NASCAR: Power Ranking The 2016 Chase Drivers Before Chicagoland

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 4:55 p.m. ET

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Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

Each and every week Beyond The Flag brings you out weekly NASCAR Power Rankings via Mike Hutton. During the NASCAR Chase we will continue to bring you those but we will also provide you with special power rankings for just the drivers involved in the NASCAR Chase.

The 2016 NASCAR Chase Power Rankings will come out every Monday and will be directly impacted on what transpired the previous weekend in the NASCAR Chase. Although the Chase will go from 16 drivers down to four, the NASCAR Chase Power Rankings will maintain all 16 Chase drivers throughout.

On-track performance, clutch wins, big risks and unfortunate issues will all play a role in determining the outcome of the NASCAR Chase Power Rankings each week. So, let’s stop talking about the rankings and jump right into them.

The NASCAR Chase is set to begin this weekend at Chicagoland, here is how the Chase field stacks up heading into the first race of the 2016 NASCAR Chase.

Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

No. 16 – Austin Dillon

Were you expecting someone else here?

Austin Dillon heads into his first NASCAR Chase with three other drivers who are in the same boat. While I don’t think Dillon will fare the worst of the first-time Chase drivers, I do think that he has the most pressure on him and that worries me. Dillon is representing RCR in the 2016 NASCAR Chase and he is the only of their three cars to make the Chase. Dillon is also viewed by many as the face of that team. Although this is his first NASCAR Chase, Dillon will need to rise to the occasion.

Unlike the other first-time Chasers; Chris Buescher is playing with house money, Kyle Larson has won this season and Chase Elliott is going to be the 2016 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Rookie of the Year, Dillon is viewed in a more critical light. Dillon is viewed by many fans as someone who hasn’t earned his spot in the sport (I don’t agree but others do). Dillon coming into the 2016 Chase and leaving after three races would be a huge disappointment for him and his team.

Dillon isn’t the worst driver in the Chase but he might have the biggest odds and the most pressure to overcome.

Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

No. 15 – Chris Buescher

Let’s be honest, Chris Buescher was not expecting to make the 2016 NASCAR Chase and nobody in NASCAR believed that he would be in the position that he is in now when the season started 26 races ago. That being said, he won, he is here and that is worth something.

Buescher is playing with house money in the Chase. For him a championship is not realistic and that’s okay. For the No. 34 team, advancing into the round of 12 would be an unbelievable accomplishment and something that Buescher and his team would be able to hang their helmets on.

RFR is going to shift a lot of their resources towards Buescher while he is in the Chase, especially considering the fact that their three drivers (Greg Biffle, Trevor Bayne and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. all missed the Chase this season). Although the effort will be there, it’s hard to imagine the results being there as well. Buescher is a great NASCAR story but it will be one that is done after the third race of the Chase.

Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

No. 14 – Jamie McMurray

The good news for Jamie McMurray is that he made the 2016 NASCAR Chase, the bad news is that McMurray is only averaging a 15th-place finish this season with one top-five and that’s not going to be good enough to result in a deep run. It also doesn’t help that McMurray isn’t even the most favored driver in the Chase on his team, that honor belongs to Kyle Larson in the No. 42 machine.

Some NASCAR fans will have McMurray making an early exit and while that is possible, I think he will at least make it to the round of 12. That being said, the round of eight might be out of reach for him (or at least the furthest that he will make it in my opinion).

The first race of the Chase will be crucial for McMurray as he has not run well at Chicagoland in his career. In 13 starts he is averaging a 20th-place finish with only seven lead-lap finishes and one top-five. McMurray needs to have a solid top-15 or even a top-10 this weekend if he plans on making some noise in NASCAR’s version of the playoffs.

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

No. 13 – Jimmie Johnson

Will the real Jimmie Johnson please stand up?

Johnson has the world against him in the NASCAR Chase and it has nothing to do with the world and everything to do with the No. 48 team. The bad news for Johnson in the Chase is that it’s the Chase and Johnson has not found success in the Chase since the new format came to be in 2014. Throw in the fact that the No. 48 team has been a mess for weeks now and things just don’t seem to be trending in the right direction for the six-time champion.

Over the first 11 races of the 2016 season, Johnson only had two finishes outside of the top-20 to go along with a pair of wins. In the last 15 races Johnson has six finishes of 25th or worse (five of them 30th or worse) and he has not won a race. Not only has the consistency slipped but the mistakes have grown. The No. 48 team has been plagued by pit road miscues, speeding penalties and other mishaps this season, something that is not common on a team led by Chad Knaus.

Can they flip a switch in the Chase or will it be another playoff struggle?

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

No. 12 – Tony Stewart

Tony Stewart winning this season was a pleasant surprise. Tony Stewart running well after his win and looking like the old Tony Stewart was an even more pleasant surprise.

While the highs have been great this season for Stewart and the No. 14 team, those have seem to have gone away as of late and been replaced by on-track stuff that Smoke Nation doesn’t want to deal with. After Stewart’s 34th-place finish in Pocono he went on a tear the likes that he fans haven’t seen since 2012. Over the next eight races Stewart had seven top-11 finishes, including his only win of the season. Over the last month, Stewart’s best finish is 21st at Michigan, the other three races resulted in runs of 30th or worse.

Stewart is coming into the Chase slumping and that is not where he wants to be. He is also coming into the Chase on a bit of an aggressive streak. Stewart has been in the news over the last few weeks for some wrecks that he has caused or been involved in on the track. Some of those issues were not caused by him but he made sure to end a couple of them, most recently Ryan Newman.

Stewart has 10 races left in his NASCAR career and his last run should be remembered as him vying for or winning a title and not any of the other stuff.

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

No. 11 – Kurt Busch

Kurt Busch is in a weird spot in the Chase.

Busch has easily been one of the most consistent drivers this season yet nobody is really talking about him. Busch might have be a threat to win every weekend like his teammate Kevin Harvick is, but Busch is a threat to run inside of the top-10 and that is more than enough to push him deep into the 2016 NASCAR Chase.

For Busch it seems like his Chase success will hinge on avoiding trouble. Trouble has not been a major issue for Busch this season but that could easily change in the playoffs. If Busch can maintain his current consistency and avoid bad luck, the 2016 NASCAR Chase could end up being very good to him.

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

No. 10 – Chase Elliott

Elliott is most likely on his way to be named 2016 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Rookie of the Year and he certainly deserves it.

Elliott started the season off slow (two bad finishes in the first three races) and then he lit the world on fire before hitting a slump. Elliott put together a 12-race stretch in which he had 11 finishes of 12th or better. Elliott followed that up by finishing five of the next six races 21st or worse. Coming into the Chase Elliott has three top-15 finishes over his last four races. He isn’t running like he was when he was on fire, but he does appear to be heating up again.

Elliott has all of the talent and tools to win a title but it might be a couple of years too soon for the rookie. That being said, if he can recreate his early 12-race stretch in the Chase, he could easily make it to the final-four in Miami and from there anything could happen.

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

No. 9 – Joey Logano

Joey Logano is not having the season in 2016 that he had in 2015 but that doesn’t mean that he won’t be a threat in the Chase.

Heading into the 2016 NASCAR Chase Team Toyota will be the team to beat but Team Penske will be the next team on that list. Logano has had success in the Chase before and if not for Matt Kenseth he most likely would have made it to the final four last season.

If Logano can find a way to take his consistency to the next level in the Chase, it would not be surprising at all to seem him in Miami this season with the chance to win a title. Of course, if that’s going to happen Logano will also have to avoid the extracurricular stuff which he was unable to avoid last season.

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

No. 8 – Matt Kenseth

Matt Kenseth is part of Joe Gibbs Racing and that fact alone gets him the No. 8 spot on the list this week. Kenseth might not be as dominant as some of the other JGR cars but he has won this season and if not for some horrible luck, he would easily have a couple of more wins under his belt.

Heading into the 2016 NASCAR Chase, I would put Kenseth as the least likely of the JGR crew (including Truex) to win a title, but that’s nothing personal as all five of them are championship-caliber drivers. For Kenseth it will come down to consistency.

If the No. 20 team can tighten up the proverbial ship, and avoid mistakes of their own and others on the track, they could make it to Miami and run for a title. The issue here though is that the first 26 races have proven they might not be able to do all of that for the last 10.

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

No. 7 – Denny Hamlin

Will 2016 finally be the year that Denny Hamlin wins his first NASCAR title?

Hamlin has come close in the past but he has never been able to climb to the top of the proverbial NASCAR mountain. This season everything seems to be trending in the right direction for Hamlin though.

Not only is Hamlin a part of the most dominant team in NASCAR currently, but he also has won on three different types of tracks this season (something has hasn’t done in season’s past). Hamlin has a lot of momentum coming into the NASCAR Chase this season and if that carries him to the final four, he will certainly be a threat to win a title.

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

No. 6 – Kevin Harvick

For Kevin Harvick the 2016 NASCAR Chase will all come down to his pit crew and mistakes on pit road. Since winning his first title in 2014 with SHR, the performance of the No. 4 pit crew has been at the forefront when it comes to Harvick coming up short and not winning races.

It was only a few weeks ago that Harvick led the most laps, had the best car and saw his pit crew lose him more than 12 spots on the track throughout the evening. That kind of performance in the Chase would not only cost him wins, but it could also cost him the chance to advance deep into the playoffs.

The switching of the crew with member from Danica Patrick’s team seemed to help last weekend in Richmond, but the pressure is going to be on over the next 10 races and only time will tell of it was a championship-winning move.

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

No. 5 – Carl Edwards

It’s only Carl Edwards second season with JGR and he is already a threat to win a championship.

Edwards has a pair of wins this season and he hopes to add to that heading into the NASCAR Chase. In 11 races at Chicagoland, Edwards has never won but he does have four top-five finishes. A strong run like that this weekend will start his Chase off on the right foot and put him one step closer to making it to the next round.

Edwards won’t be the favorite of the JGR drivers heading into the Chase but he might be the one to turn the most heads. If I had to pick one JGR driver to win the title, I lean towards Edwards.

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

No. 4 – Brad Keselowski

Many NASCAR fans call Keselowski’s 2012 title a fluke. Well, what happens if he wins a second title this season?

Keselowksi is the real deal and his first title should have proven that. Coming into the 2016 NASCAR Chase, Kes seems to be in the best position to win a second title than he has been since his first title in 2012.

Team Penske is the only team that has been able to hold a candle to JGR with consistency this season and Kes has been a major part of that. JGR might be the favorite to win the title this season but I would not count out Kes and Penske just yet.

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

No. 3 – Kyle Larson

Kyle Larson is high on this week’s power ranking for a couple of reasons.

The first being that he has lit the NASCAR world on fire since winning his first race in Michigan. Larson followed that win up with a 3rd-place finish at Darlington and a 2nd-place finish last weekend in Richmond. Larson is running the best currently that he has ever run in his NASCAR career.

The other reason for the high ranking is his success at Chicagoland. In two starts he has a top-five finish and an average finishing position of 5th. Look for Larson to have a solid run this weekend and contend for the win.

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

No. 2 – Matin Truex Jr.

Not many people are talking about Martin Truex Jr. and that’s a shame.

Truex has a pair of wins this season and a pair of consecutive top-five finishes heading into the Chase. He is associated with JGR and has easily been one of the better cars in NASCAR throughout the 2016 season. Although he is unproven in the Chase, everything seems to be lining up for Truex and that’s reason enough to jump on his bandwagon.

The No. 78 team will have to tighten things up as a whole to make a deep run into the Chase but there is little reason to believe they won’t be able to do that.

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

No. 1 – Kyle Busch

Then there is the defending NASCAR champion.

It’s hard to go against those who say Busch will repeat as NASCAR champion this season. He led the series in wins, is one the most dominant team in NASCAR this season and he is the defending champion. What exactly is the argument against him?

Busch is the favorite to win the title this season and he deserves to be. I might not have him as my top pick, but I am not going to argue with anyone else who does. Busch earned the label as favorite heading into the Chase and he earned the top spot in the power rankings as well.

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