If you’ve ever followed anything I’ve ever done in my life, you know that St. Andrews is my favorite place on the planet. If I had my druthers, I would buy a one-way ticket to Edinburgh, buy a used car that can fit at least two sets of golf clubs and spend the rest of my days a few kilometers from the Old Course, enjoying the best deal in all the world as a links trust card holder and sending e-mails to my American buddies still fighting the rat race that read, “Tough day ... had to drive all the way to Carnoustie and play the Championship and the Burnside! Barely got home in time for supper and the start of the PGA Tour event!”
I’m obsessed with St. Andrews and the history that surrounds the Old Course, but the one lurking issue that has seemed to trend lately with the British Open and the Old is that, simply put, the championships haven’t been that exciting when hosted at the home of golf.
Since 1990, only four British Opens have ended with a champion winning by five or more strokes, all four coming at St. Andrews. Nick Faldo won by five in 1990, Tiger Woods won by eight in 2000 and by five in 2005, and Louis Oosthuizen -- out of thin air, to some -- lapped the field at the home of golf by seven shots in 2010. (Of course, John Daly won one of the most dramatic playoffs ever at the Old Course in 1995 after Constantino Rocca went from zero to hero on the 72nd hole, but the trend sure points toward blowouts at this great place.)
So the question is why? Why is it that the last three Open winners at St. Andrews have won by a combined 20 shots? Why is this place so susceptible to a blowout?
The simple answer is the weather. The Old Course, for all the history and beauty and simple fun that comes with playing it, can be had if the wind is down. The fairways aren’t overly tight, the greens are some of the biggest on the planet, and when the wind calms, players can take dead aim, driving par-4s with the fast-rolling fairways and making birdie after birdie.
In 2000, when Woods won his first British Open with the lowest score ever at a major championship at 19 under par, he never hit it in a single bunker all week at St. Andrews, incredible if you’ve ever spent any time walking the course and seeing just how many sand traps there are and how easy it is for even a decent golf shot to roll out into one of the hundreds of hazards.
In 2010, Paul Casey shot 69-69-67 in the first three rounds and was four shots back of Oosthuizen! Incredible and also a bit of an example of what can happen when golfers who are hot find the right side of the draw.
But all of this goes back to a calm Old Course. When the weather is down, especially in 2015, the average score at the Old Course for most of these players is around 69. That means you’ll see a 65, maybe a 64, and possibly -- like we saw in 2010 -- a 63 to open the championship. (I make myself pour a little ginger beer out for Mr. McIlroy any time I mention his name, by the way ... his injury is the lone bummer of the 2015 PGA Tour season.)
The Old Course’s single defense against professionals is nasty weather, and it’s almost imperative these days to have at least a day or two of wind to get these guys thinking. Without wind, the bombers can have their way with the Old, one of the reasons names like Daly, Woods and Oosthuizen were so successful on a calm St. Andrews.
But let me be clear: The Old Course isn’t always going to be double-digits under par.
People talk so much about how easy St. Andrews is and how the course has become obsolete for golf’s best, but that just isn’t true. Sure, a windless St. Andrews is one players can pick apart, but it’s easy to forget that after Rory shot that 63 in the opening round five years ago, he followed it up with an 80 in tough conditions.
That is where the weather can make a huge difference and make this course play into the hands of someone really on his game. Get a good draw, get the good weather and really feel comfortable hitting your lines and the Old Course is a playable place where someone can run away with the championship.
But if the wind picks up and the weather is tough for four days, it’s a place that can tighten up the leaderboard and make for some serious drama.
My fantasy of living in St. Andrews is far from complete, but I think I speak for a lot of the townspeople when I say that I’d hope for some wind, a bit of rain and a little tougher St. Andrews in 2015 than we’ve seen the last three times this great place has hosted this amazing championship.
If the wind is up, I don’t see anyone running away from the field, bucking that trend and setting up an exciting and unforgettable Sunday.
Shane Bacon is a regular contributor to FOXSports.com's golf coverage. Follow him on Twitter at @shanebacon.
