Palmer's top tip Alvaro Quiros 16-1 Lee Westwood is spending the rest of October with his feet up, resting the injured leg which hampered his bid to become world No. 1 last week, so the Portugal Masters at the Oceanico Victoria Course in Vilamoura will not have a defending champion in the field.
The absence of Westwood, whose victory 12 months ago ended a two-year winning drought and propelled him to Race To Dubai glory, means Alvaro Quiros is the player in this week's line-up who has the most recent experience of success at the Victoria Course.
Quiros romped to a threeshot triumph in 2008, four rounds in the 60s guiding him to a 19-under-par total, and given his bright return to the circuit in last week's Dunhill Links Championship there is every reason to fancy the classy Spaniard for a repeat.
The course set-up plays into the hands of power-packed individuals like Quiros - the fairways are reasonably generous, the rough is light and the small trees which are scattered around the extremities of the layout play little part in proceedings - so punters should be concentrating on aggressive sorts who can squeeze every last birdie out of a track which is there for the taking.
Heavy rainfall over the weekend further strengthened the case for Quiros - his effortless length off the tee will come in handy along much softened terrain - and 16-1 still represents value despite all the 18-1 being snaffled by shrewdies yesterday morning.
Quiros's obsession with making the European Ryder Cup team ruined the latter half of his 2010 campaign - he teed up virtually every week in a bid to earn points and burned himself out - but he returned to action in Scotland last week looking fresh for the fight.
Finishing fifth on Sunday, at quirky St Andrews in cold, unfamiliar conditions, was a tremendous effort, and this week on a track which suits him much more and with some sunshine on his face, even better should be in store.
All four of Quiros's European Tour victories have come in warmer climes - he won in South Africa, Portugal and Qatar before claiming the Spanish Open title in Seville in May - and this cheerful character could be sporting a broad, sun-drenched grin throughout proceedings this week.
Quiros finished 11th on his Victoria Course debut in 2007 (his second-best finish of that season), and his title defence last year (when he arrived in poor form) ended with a respectable 16th place, so he is clearly ultracomfortable at the venue.
Next best Charl Schwartzel 20-1 Ross Fisher and the Molinari brothers have gone from Celtic Manor to Portugal via the Links Championship, so they may struggle to get the juices flowing for a third straight week. The Molinaris, in particular, looked completely shattered when flopping in Scotland last week, and the Italians may have subconsciously switched off for the season after their historic Ryder Cup bow.
Much preferred as the main threat to Quiros is Charl Schwartzel, who has spent a month off steeling himself for a strong finish to the year. The South African ace is fifth in the Race To Dubai and is playing in the majority of the seven remaining counting events in a bid to catch runaway leader Martin Kaymer.
Two January wins in Africa, along with five other top-ten finishes on the European Tour this year, have made this a career-best campaign for Schwartzel, and like Quiros he is an attacking player who relishes the dimensions of the Victoria Course.
He was seventh in 2007 and sixth last year, and his missed cut in 2008 came the week immediately following his Madrid Masters victory, so mental fatigue was a valid excuse for that failure.
Other selections Danny Willett 22-1 Alex Noren 33-1 Danny Willett has been threatening a breakthrough victory for a while but is yet to master the art of closing out tournaments. There was no disgrace in losing out to the brilliant Kaymer at St Andrews last week, though, and he must be given another chance to bring home the bacon in Portugal.
In two full seasons on the European Tour, the former world No. 1 amateur has recorded 15 top-ten finishes, and it is surely only a matter of time before he sheds his maiden tag. The Sheffield lad is knocking so hard on the gate of the winner's enclosure, his hands must be red raw.
Willett shot four rounds in the 60s for a share of sixth place at the Victoria Course 12 months ago, so he is proven on the track, and his all-gunsblazing approach is tailor-made for the venue.
Complete the staking plan with another bomber, underachieving Swedish playboy Alex Noren, who finally appears to be getting his act together after a quiet campaign.
The Monte Carlo-based stylist was third in the Austrian Open at the end of last month and finished 17th at St Andrews on Sunday, so the signs have been encouraging ahead of his return to a happy hunting ground.
In the three Portugal Masters played at the Victoria Course, Noren has finished 12th, 16th and sixth, so the track clearly suits his eye. Totesport's early 40-1 was a gift, but 33-1 is still an acceptable each-way proposition.
Dangers Fisher is struggling for consistency but has twice finished in the top seven at the Victoria Course and must be respected, while his compatriots Simon Dyson, John Parry and Gary Boyd all impressed in Scotland last week and could lead an English assault on the leaderboard. Steve Palmer Recommendations A Quiros 2pts each-way 16-1 general C Schwartzel 1.5pts each-way 20-1 Bet365 D Willett 1pt each-way 22-1 Paddy Power A Noren 1pt e-w 33-1 Bet365, Hills, P Power THE LOWDOWN Portugal Masters Prize money EUR3m (pounds 2.632) with EUR500,000 (pounds 438,500) to winner The field 126 The course Oceanico Victoria GC, Vilamoura, Algarve, Portugal Length 7, 231 yards Par 72 Course records - 72 holes 263 Steve Webster (2007), 18 holes 61 Martin Kaymer (2007) Mainly flat Arnold Palmer layout in the Algarve, opened in 2004, which hosted a rain-shortened World Cup the following year. This is the first Portugal Masters to be staged there. It makes full use of lakes and waterfalls. There are plenty of birdies available as Martin Kaymer proved with his record 61 three years ago Last year's winner Lee Westwood surged to a two-shot victory over Francesco Molinari after third-round leader Retief Goosen crashed to a 75 Course winners taking part Steve Webster, Alvaro Quiros When to bet By 7.30am tomorrow Where to watch Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 11.30am tomorrow Weather forecast Mostly sunny and warm (up to 23C) for the first three days with cloudy periods. Cloud to predominate on Sunday with chance of rain. Wind moderate Time difference Portugal has the same time as the UK & Ireland Last week - Madrid Masters: 1st M Kaymer (16-1), 2nd D Willett (80-1), 3rd J Parry (80-1), 4th G Boyd (150-1), T5th A Quiros (66-1), S Dyson (55-1), M Laird (80-1)
