Why Nebraska isn't a true College Football Playoff contender
The college football season is more than half over, and it’s safe to say there are a few surprises at the top of the polls. While everyone could have seen Alabama and Michigan making runs towards the College Football Playoff, teams like West Virginia and Washington remain undefeated and in surprising position to play for big stakes late in the season.
Yet there might not be a more surprising team overall than No. 7 Nebraska, which sits at 7-0 entering a showdown with No. 11 Wisconsin this weekend. In just Mike Riley’s second year in Lincoln he has revamped the program and has them playing for a potential Big Ten title.
But there is one man who remains unimpressed: FS1’s Colin Cowherd.
During “The Herd” on Wednesday, he made the case why Nebraska is not a true title contender (see video above):
"Every year we have a college football program that whines and complains that ‘nobody respects us. Why doesn’t anybody respect us?’ Last year it was Iowa. This year, it’s Nebraska. And what happens every year is one team gets off to a 7-0, 8-0 start and the college fans are like ‘why don’t you love us?’ This year it’s Nebraska and their likeable coach Mike Riley.
So here’s the way it works: College fans want you to look at their record, and what I look at is your schedule. Who have you beaten? Fresno State, Wyoming, Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana and bad Purdue. Oregon, by the way, awful this year."
Whether you agree with Cowherd or not, his point is totally fair. While the Cornhuskers are 7-0, the teams they’ve faced are waaaaaaaay less than stellar. In total, five of the seven teams they’ve played have losing records and one of those clubs -- 4-3 Northwestern -- is barely above .500. Overall, their opponents have a combined record of 20-30, with only Wyoming’s 5-2 record resembling anything close to a respectable mark.
More than just its record though, as Cowherd points out, Nebraska hasn’t produced a lot of front-line NFL talent either. The true test of how good a team is -- and how they’ll perform against other elite teams -- is what kind of players do they have on their roster. Ohio State won a title two years ago and one season later had a dozen guys drafted. Alabama routinely puts three, four or five guys in the first round.
But Nebraska? The last first-rounder they had was Prince Amukamara in 2011. Overall, they’ve produced just three first-round selections in the last decade. Ohio State produced five in just the 2016 draft.
“Here’s the reality of college football, the reason the Nebraskas, West Virginias and Iowas are programs I don’t talk about as much," Cowherd said. "When is the last first-round pick from Nebraska? One, five years ago. In that time, Alabama has had 15 and Ohio State has had eight. There are a handful of schools that just have geographic advantages; Alabama, Florida, Florida State, Ohio State, Texas A&M. And the last five years those schools have had seven, eight, 12, 15 first-rounders. Nebraska has had one.
"So I don’t just look at your record, Iowa, Nebraska. I look at your school, your geography and who have you played. Nebraska has played average teams and narrowly beaten several of them. And if they had go to Ann Arbor this weekend, they’d get boat raced. If they had to go to Ohio State, they’d get pushed around. As it is, I think they’ll lose at Wisconsin and lose at Ohio State.”
Of course, while Cowherd makes some very strong points, that last sentence may be the most important: With games at Wisconsin and at Ohio State in the next two weeks, they have a chance to prove the doubters wrong.
Whether they will or not is another question altogether.