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All 18 Big 12 expansion candidates seeded in the ultimate realignment bracket
On Friday, ESPN’s Brett McMurphy reported the Big 12 will soon be entertaining video presentations from 18 – yes, 18 – schools with interest in joining the conference.
Both the absurdity of such a long list and the conference’s increasingly clunky and public expansion process drew inevitable jokes about turning the proceedings into a season of The Bachelor (“UCF, will you accept my rose?”).
Or suggestions that perhaps the Big 12 could charge fans for the opportunity to dial-in to the schools’ respective Skype calls.
My question is, how are the presidents going to narrow down 18 contenders to, most likely, two lucky schools? (The conference initially suggested it might expand to 14 teams, but amidst reports of pushback from its TV partners, that scenario seems less likely.)
This being college sports, I say this is a golden opportunity for … a bracket!
I have seeded the 18 teams based on a somewhat educated projection of most to least likely. But as we know, whenever NCAA members stage a tournament, there are inevitably upsets.
So let’s get this game of August Madness underway – beginning, of course, in Dayton.
No. 15 San Diego State vs. No. 18 Arkansas State
Arkansas State, by far the most surprising applicant, is the Cinderella that won its conference tournament at 13-19. San Diego State has the more established football history and will surely trot out Marshall Faulk for its presentation -- but it's nowhere near the Big 12. The Red Wolves keep their dream alive.
Winner: Arkansas State
No. 16 Temple vs. No. 17 New Mexico
Temple was abysmal in football for decades prior to its recent resurgence under Matt Ruhle. New Mexico was decent in football for decades but has eight losing seasons in the last 10 years. The Big 12 presidents are front-runners.
Winner: Temple
On to the …
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 Temple
These AAC foes aren’t that far apart on the field, but one has a proud modern history (think Andre Ware) while the other once got kicked out of the Big East.
Winner: Houston
No. 8 Colorado State vs. No. 9 USF
College football fans surely remember the wild 2007 season when USF briefly reached No. 2 in the polls. CSU has no such recent distinction but does have stadium renovation plans that include a microbrewery’s party deck.
Winner: Colorado State
No. 5 Memphis vs. No. 12 Tulane
Memphis boosters try to buy off the presidents by having FedEx overnight them rolls of hundreds, but presidents are sticklers for their academic rankings. Tulane is in US News and World Report’s Top 50; Memphis didn’t crack the Top 200.
And hey, what’s a bracket without a 12-over-5 upset?
Winner: Tulane
4 Boise State vs. No. 13 SMU
Boise State advances by default when the Committee on Infractions rules SMU ineligible (again).
Winner: Boise State
No. 6 Connecticut vs. No. 11 NIU
NIU has played with the big boys plenty of times before – including reaching the 2013 Orange Bowl – but can’t stand up to UConn’s ever-alluring East Coast pull and all those basketball national titles.
Winner: Connecticut
No. 3 Cincinnati vs. No. 14 East Carolina
These two have been conference-mates off and on for the past several decades, and ECU has the more rabid football fan base. But Cincinnati is not far removed from a BCS auto-qualifier conference and is a respected basketball brand.
Winner: Cincinnati
No. 7 UCF vs. No. 10 Air Force
UCF, with its fertile recruiting base, nice stadium and large TV market, is the team full of big-name recruits that can never seem to put it all together. Air Force is the overachiever that makes up for lack of athleticism with good fundamentals. Good recipe for an upset.
Winner: Air Force
No. 2 BYU vs. No. 18 Arkansas State
Somehow a school with a 64,000-seat stadium and a national title is competing for a bid with a Sun Belt school. Just a reminder how strange this process is.
Winner: BYU
So we’re down to eight – Houston, BYU, Cincinnati, Boise State, Connecticut, Colorado State, Air Force and Tulane. Only three out of 3 million participants in the Realignment Bracket Challenge went 8-for-8.
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 8 Colorado State
Vegas installs the Cougars as 14-point favorites. Colorado State earns some support early due to concerns from schools like Kansas State about hurting their own ability to recruit in Houston. But then, the presidents realize how humiliating it will look to have ultimately traded Colorado for Colorado State.
Winner: Houston
No. 4 Boise State vs. No. 12 Tulane
Tulane looks to continue its Cinderella bid by treating the presidents to a free round of Hurricanes and some homemade jambalaya. But Boise trots out those three Fiesta Bowl rings and reminds everyone Tulane rarely even goes to bowls.
Winner: Boise State
No. 3 Cincinnati vs. No. 6 Connecticut
It’s an old Big East grudge match, and the presidents are initially split. Cincy makes more sense geographically, but UConn somehow convinces them there are UConn football fans in New York City. Cincy comes back and reminds them there are far more recruits in the state of Ohio than the state of Connecticut.
Winner: Cincinnati
No. 2 BYU vs. No. 10 Air Force
These two have a long history dating back to their days in the WAC. Air Force plays up the fact it’s willing to play games any day of the week. BYU counters by noting its stadium would immediately become the third-biggest in the Big 12.
Winner: BYU
After some upsets early, we ended up with an all-chalk Final Four. Which will be great for TV ratings. Cue up Jim Nantz.
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 4 Boise State
Most consider these the top two Group of 5 programs in the country, though Boise, now going on two decades of success, objects to be put in the same breath as a potential one-year wonder. But Chris Petersen isn’t walking back through that door in Boise, while Tom Herman may stay if he’s suddenly coaching a Power 5 program. Also, Houston is a much bigger market.
Winner: Houston
No. 2 BYU vs. No. 3 Cincinnati
Here, on the biggest stage, concerns about BYU’s candidacy come under much more scrutiny. Not only are LGBT groups advocating against BYU, but the school announced last week it is now under investigation by the Department of Education for its handling of sexual assault cases. The Big 12, thanks to Baylor, has had its fill of those headlines.
Cincinnati sits back, eats some Skyline and avoids the whole mess.
Winner: Cincinnati
And … that’s it. There is no championship game because both schools are getting in. The Big 12’s long, awkward interview process comes to a close with Houston and Cincinnati joining the league.
Now, after all that, watch the conference decide it’s not expanding after all.
