Don’t tell me who you like in this NCAA Tournament. I know that you love Ohio State (who doesn’t?) and Kansas (don’t blame you). I know you think North Carolina is surging and that Kentucky is dangerous because the Wildcats deserved more than a four seed. So do I.
But tell me who you DON’T like.
Tell me which teams are likely to collapse and make a mess right in the middle of your NCAA Tournament draw sheet.
Let me get you started. I’ve got seven teams that should be surrounded by flashing lights. You’d better run the numbers on these teams one more time before you pick them to survive the first weekend of the tournament.
1. Wisconsin: Jordan Taylor is a great point guard. Jon Leuer is one of the most efficient inside players in the country. No wonder Bo Ryan’s team is seeded fourth in the Southeast Regional, matched against Atlantic Sun power Belmont.
But it’s impossible to overlook the 33 points the Badgers huffed and puffed to score while losing their opening Big Ten Tournament game. That’s 33 points against a Penn State team that gives up 64 per game.
If you were in Jacksonville a year ago, you saw that Wisconsin was vulnerable against a team that ran a precise offense and could shoot like crazy.
Last year that team was Cornell. This year it’s Belmont, which is 10-deep and fearless. Belmont ranks second nationally in three-point field goals made (9.4 per game), and is hitting 38 percent of their treys. And don’t forget Rick Byrd’s program played Duke to a one-point game three years ago.
2. Kansas State: Who are the Wildcats, the team that stumbled through the start of the Big 12 season or the one that won eight of their last nine during the conference stretch run?
As the fifth-seed in the Southeast, chances are the Wildcats are this team: Wildly inconsistent because of too many turnovers and awful free-throw shooting.
That leaves them vulnerable in a first-round matchup against Utah State, which defends like crazy (38 percent defensive field goal percentage) and can make free throws.
3. St. John’s: Losing your third-leading scorer and top rebounder to a torn ACL less than a week before the tournament is no way to celebrate the news of earning a six-seed in the Southeast regional.
But the Red Storm face life without senior D.J. Kennedy and a game against always formidable Gonzaga. Blend in the news that the Zags have won five of their last seven first-round games and the Red Storm have reason to fret.
4. Vanderbilt: The Commodores are another team that can’t decide who they want to be when they grow up:
The team that beat North Carolina, Marquette and Kentucky? Or the one that lost at home against Arkansas and then closed the season by losing four of seven?
If it’s the Vandy team led by an aggressive Jeffery Taylor and poised John Jenkins, the Commodores have a shot as the fifth seed in the Southwest Regional. If not, don’t be surprised to see a repeat of last season, when Vanderbilt was upset by Murray State in the opening round. Richmond makes nearly 41 percent of its three-point shots.
5. Xavier: If you believe in the Musketeers then you have to believe in the strength of the Atlantic 10 because Xavier earned a six-seed in the East by going 15-2 against A-10 teams and 9-5 against everybody else, losing by 20 to Cincinnati and by nine to Miami (Ohio) and Old Dominion.
Marquette can be a handful. Sure, it lost 14 games but half were by five points or less. Darius Johnson-Odom can match up with Xavier point guard Tu Holloway.
6. Connecticut: The Huskies, who were a nine-seed in the Big East Tournament, are a three-seed in the NCAA Tournament West Regional. There are reasons that Jim Calhoun’s team had to win five in a row to cut down the nets in Madison Square Garden Saturday night.
And the reasons are they lost four of their last five regular-season games and they’re not a great shooting team (43.5 percent) that usually relies on Kemba Walker to save the day. Remember what happened to Syracuse after the Orange won four in a row while making a surprising Big East run in 2006?
Their legs were rubber and they lost their opening NCAA game to Texas A&M.
7. Brigham Young: The Cougars shot into the national consciousness a year ago when Jimmer Fredette rang up 37 points in a first-round upset of Florida.
Go back and check the fine print. The Cougars needed a pair of overtimes to win that game and then they were beaten by Kansas State by a dozen in the second round. BYU has lost seven of its last eight first-round NCAA games and the Cougars are still learning to adjust to life without Brandon Davies, their suspended leading rebounder.
You have been warned.
