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Michigan State Basketball: 5 bold predictions vs. Michigan

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 2:44 p.m. ET

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Jan 7, 2017; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Michigan State Spartans forward Nick Ward (44) high-fives guard Eron Harris (14) during the first half against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Palestra. Mandatory Credit: Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Michigan State basketball will be taking on Michigan on Sunday afternoon and here are our five bold predictions.

Let’s face it, Sunday afternoon’s Michigan State basketball game against the Michigan Wolverines is one of the biggest must-win contests for the Spartans in recent memory. Rarely do these two meet up with so much on the line, but the loser is definitely going to be feeling a major sense of urgency come Sunday night.

Michigan State is just 12-9 and 4-4 in conference play and the Wolverines are 14-7 with the same Big Ten record. Not only are bragging rights on the line, but NCAA Tournament hopes hang in the balance with the Spartans looking to get back on track after a three-game skid.

Tom Izzo isn’t happy with the team’s play and has been emphasizing the importance of this rivalry game all week with his young guys and they’ll come out with a hunger to win and put this ugly string of games behind them.

Let’s take a look at our five bold predictions for the contest.

5. Spartans come out of the gates a little slow

Although I said the Spartans would come out with a hunger to take down their top rival, it might take some time into the first half for them to really gain some confidence. The young guys will come out a little too amped up and miss some early shots, falling behind 13-6, but they’ll get back on track before halftime.

This team is far too talented to lose four games in a row and two straight at home to beatable opponents. Don’t expect Izzo to sit back and let his star-ladder squad fall to the team down the road.

Getting behind early on is never ideal, but Michigan State won’t let a small deficit snowball into something larger in this one like it did against Indiana and Penn State. The Spartans will make this a game again and the second half will be evenly played out.

Jan 4, 2017; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans forward Nick Ward (44) walks onto the court prior to a game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at the Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

4. Nick Ward dominates Michigan in the post

Just like Michigan State, the Wolverines are thin in the post. They have Mark Donnal, D.J. Wilson and Moritz Wagner leading the way, but none of those guys have the size or strength to post up a guy like Nick Ward down low.

Michigan hasn’t quite faced someone like Ward yet this season nor will it until it faces Purdue in the final couple weeks of the year. Wagner and Wilson will likely get the unfortunate task of trying to body the mammoth freshman in the post, but his moves for a big are just too strong for anyone to slow down.

This is one of the few games in which Michigan State will have a monster game down low. Many teams have been trying to double-team Ward when he gets the ball, but that will come back to bite the Wolverines as the Spartan freshman has been working on getting the ball out quickly when that does happen to avoid a jump ball or turnover.

Ward has been struggling a bit to find his rhythm over the past four games, scoring in double figures just once and nine points in each of the other three contests. This one will be much different as he will draw fouls early and often, getting Michigan’s bigs into trouble and he’ll take advantage.

Expect the big man to bully Michigan down low for 18 points and 12 rebounds.

Jan 26, 2017; Ann Arbor, MI, USA; Michigan Wolverines guard Duncan Robinson (22) celebrates with guard Zak Irvin (21) after scoring in the first half against the Indiana Hoosiers at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

3. Michigan stays hot from 3-point land

Typical Michigan basketball teams under John Beilein are based on three-point shooting and this one hasn’t been as good as a number of squads in the past. Michigan will live and die by the three-ball and that can get the Wolverines into trouble or guide them to major victories.

The latter was the case earlier this week as Michigan blew out the Indiana Hoosiers at home by 30 points thanks to a barrage of 3-pointers, shooting 55 percent from beyond the arc. On a night in which Indiana also shot over 50 percent from long range, the Wolverines played some scrappy defense which allowed them to get ahead early and never look back.

Beating Indiana by 30 was the exact confidence boost this team needed heading into a rivalry game on the road like this one and it’ll pay off in terms of three-point shooting. Expect the Wolverines to have yet another solid game from the perimeter as Michigan State struggles to guard the arc.

Michigan made 11-of-20 against Indiana, but it won’t have quite that many makes, but instead 9-of-18, including six in the first half to help snag an early lead. Zak Irvin will lead the way from long range and he will be assisted by Duncan Robinson in the early barrage.

Will that be enough to take down the Spartans in the Breslin Center, though? We will find out on Sunday afternoon.

Jan 24, 2017; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans guard Miles Bridges (22) reacts during the first half against the Purdue Boilermakers at the Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

2. Miles Bridges has a monster game (again)

Tom Izzo has never had a freshman quite like Miles Bridges. In fact, he calls him a ‘blue-collar superstar’ which means he is a hard worker and doesn’t act like he’s better than anyone else, but he’s still clearly more talented than anyone on the court. Unfortunately, the Spartans are getting big games from only him and just a few other players.

Bridges put on quite the show against Purdue on Tuesday night, scoring a Michigan State freshman record 33 points while making 12-of-17 shots, including 5-of-8 3-pointers. He has the ability to score from anywhere on the court and that’s what makes him such a valuable piece to the tourney puzzle.

The freshman sensation is going to have yet another big game, not quite what he did to the Boilermakers, scoring 21 points with eight rebounds and three blocks. He stated earlier this week that he feels honored to play in this rivalry game and grew up watching guys like Kalin Lucas and Draymond Green perform against the Wolverines.

There’s no doubt he wants to cement his legacy against the Wolverines by taking matters into his own hands early and often. He might try to do too much, at times, but Bridges will ease into the game in the middle of the first half and finish strong.

Jan 24, 2017; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans guard Cassius Winston (5) gesture the crowd during the second half of a game against the Purdue Boilermakers at the Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

1. Spartans win by five

It’s been a rough couple of weeks for Michigan State. The Spartans began conference play with a 4-1 record and they were tied atop the standings, but have since lost three straight, dropping three games behind the Big Ten-leading Wisconsin Badgers and Maryland Terrapins.

Must Read: MSU Basketball: 5 bold predictions for January

A win on Saturday would go a long way in terms of confidence, especially with a favorable schedule coming up. In fact, Michigan State will travel to struggling Nebraska before taking on Michigan again at Crisler Arena and then Iowa and Ohio State at home. There’s a good chance this team could win five straight games before facing Purdue again — but they could also lose a few.

Michigan State will take a major step in the right direction Sunday with a solid win over the Wolverines and some of the guys, like Eron Harris and Cassius Winston, will gain some confidence back by hitting some big shots in the second half.

Many are predicting a Michigan win because of the Wolverines’ recent hot streak in which they nearly defeated Wisconsin on the road, got revenge against Illinois at home and blew the doors off Indiana, 90-60, earlier this week. The Wolverines are hot, but the Spartans are hungry to end this losing skid.

Michigan State makes the necessary shots down the stretch — yes, including free throws — and takes the latest installment of the rivalry game by five, 69-64.

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