An updated look at how the field is shaping up for the NCAA tournament:
ACC
Locks (4): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State.
Bubble (2): Miami, North Carolina State
Miami (15-8 overall, 6-4 conference, RPI 35, SOS 34): No damage was done losing at Florida State last weekend, but it looks like the Hurricanes are going to be right on the bubble until the end. If they could beat North Carolina at home on Wednesday, they could give themselves a little breathing room down the stretch. Miami is playing well enough to pull it off.
N.C. State (18-7 overall, 7-3 conference, RPI 50, SOS 56): It could get bumpy for the Wolfpack. They play at Duke and host Florida State this week before another key home game Feb. 21 against North Carolina. A win in any of those games would go a long way, especially since their best win to date came against fellow bubble boy Miami.
BIG TEN
Locks (5): Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana.
On the Bubble (4): Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Minnesota.
Purdue (16-9 overall, 6-6 conference, RPI 54, SOS 31): Sunday's home win gave the Boilermakers a season sweep over Northwestern, which could be useful for bubble purposes. The competitive Big Ten, however, doesn't allow for much letup and this week is no exception. Purdue travels to Illinois and hosts Michigan State, and a split would go a long way toward building a safety net.
Illinois (16-9 overall, 5-7 conference, RPI 47, SOS 15): Illinois is shaping up to be a big Selection Sunday debate. There are a few good wins (Michigan State, Ohio State, Gonzaga) and no bad losses outside of a road game at Penn State. But the losses are piling up — the tally is now six out of seven — and the remaining schedule is still brutal. Hosting Purdue on Wednesday is a crucial opportunity to stop the slide.
Minnesota (17-8 overall, 5-7 conference, RPI 60 SOS 62): The Gophers blew a huge chance to solidify their profile last Thursday, losing at home to Wisconsin in overtime. But they get Ohio State, Michigan State and Indiana all at home over the next two weeks, and they simply can't afford to lose all three. The Gophers' weak non-conference schedule is a legitimate knock.
Northwestern (15-9 overall, 5-7 conference, RPI 42 SOS 14): There's no way to sugarcoat it, the remaining schedule is brutal. The Wildcats have to travel to Indiana, Penn State and Iowa and host Minnesota, Michigan and Ohio State. All six games can easily be lost. How many does Northwestern have to win? Hard to say, but if the Wildcats get their first NCAA bid in school history, they'll have earned it.
BIG 12
Locks (3): Kansas, Missouri, Baylor.
On the bubble (3): Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas.
Iowa State (18-8 overall, 8-5 conference, RPI 38, SOS 50): Monday's decisive loss at Baylor leaves Iowa State in the danger zone, but as of today the Cyclones are barely on the right side of the bubble. They should win their next two at home against Big 12 bottom feeders before a telling stretch run that takes them to Kansas State and Missouri, then back home for a rematch against Baylor.
Kansas State (17-8 overall, 6-7 conference, RPI 63, SOS 65): The last week has done major damage to K-State's hopes of an at-large bid. After losing at Texas on Saturday, the Wildcats lost at home Monday to rival Kansas and now face consecutive road games at Baylor and Missouri. Never count out a Frank Martin-coached team, but they need at least a 9-9 record to be in play for a bid. Do the math.
Texas (16-9 overall, 6-6 conference, RPI 54 SOS 20): The Longhorns got a huge home win over Kansas State, inching them closer to the at-large conversation. But there's still the nagging issue of a 3-8 record against the RPI top 100 and the unimpressive 11-9 record of the top 200. Four of the last six are on the road, so they're still in a very precarious position.
BIG EAST
Locks (4): Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville.
On the bubble (6): Notre Dame, Cincinnati, West Virginia, UConn, Seton Hall, South Florida.
Notre Dame (17-8 overall, 9-3 conference, RPI 40, SOS 33): Now guaranteed a .500 conference record, the Irish are close to locking up a bid. The remaining schedule is very favorable and should help them avoid any sort of tailspin.
Cincinnati (17-8 overall, 7-5 conference, RPI 93, SOS 124): Cincy is an odd case. The Bearcats have some good wins (at Georgetown, at UConn, Notre Dame, at Pitt) and have played a lot of very good opponents. But the computers aren't impressed, the RPI and SOS being dragged down by nine games against teams ranked 200 or worse (including an inexplicable Nov. 19 loss to Presbyterian). The schedule actually sets up well for a strong close, but for now the numbers don't do justice to just how good their resume is.
West Virginia (16-10 overall, 6-7 conference, RPI 41 SOS 6): It's panic time in Morgantown. The Mountaineers have lost six of seven, including three straight at home. Their only win in that stretch — Feb. 5 at Providence — won't help them much from an NCAA tournament perspective. The next three games — at Pittsburgh, at Notre Dame and at home against Marquette — mean everything.
UConn (15-9 overall, 5-7 conference, RPI 20 SOS 1): The Huskies were competitive for a while at Syracuse last weekend, but ended up with an 18-point loss, their sixth in seven games. UConn must sweep home games this week against DePaul and Marquette; otherwise, this could get real ugly.
Seton Hall (17-8 overall, 6-7 conference, RPI 31, SOS 20): Credit Seton Hall for hanging in there after a six-game losing streak and winning their last two, including a huge home comeback over Pitt on Sunday. The home stretch is pretty favorable. A 9-9 conference record might be just enough to seal the deal.
South Florida (15-10 overall, 8-4 conference, RPI 62, SOS 38): Maybe it's time to take a second look at South Florida. Granted, the Bulls are just 12-10 against the RPI top 200, and they've feasted on Big East bottom feeders to get to 8-4 in the league. But they have some chances down the stretch to pick off a couple good wins. With other bubble teams struggling to make their case, the Bulls could be in the conversation going into Madison Square Garden.
SEC
Locks (4): Kentucky, Florida, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt.
On the bubble (3): Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas.
Alabama (16-8 overall, 5-5 conference, RPI 32, SOS 22): Alabama still has the resume of a tournament team, but maybe not for long. Coach Anthony Grant suspended three starters Saturday for violating team rules, joining starting forward Tony Mitchell, who was suspended a week earlier. The Tide predictably struggled against LSU later that night. Grant reinstated two players this week, but Mitchell and JaMychal Green remain out for now, which means more losses could be on the way.
Ole Miss (15-9 overall, 5-5 conference, RPI 51, SOS 47): It wasn't a good sign that the Rebels had to come from behind at home to beat Auburn on Saturday, but a win is a win at this point. Ole Miss gets a huge opportunity on Thursday hosting Vanderbilt. With just a 4-8 record against the RPI top 100, Andy Kennedy's club needs significant wins.
Arkansas (17-8 overall, 5-5 conference, RPI 67, SOS 77): It's hard to take the Razorbacks seriously, as they're 0-8 away from Bud Walton Arena and undefeated at home. There's still a path to an NCAA bid, though, and it starts with finally getting a road win Wednesday at Tennessee.
MOUNTAIN WEST
Locks (2): San Diego State, UNLV.
On the bubble (3): New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado State.
New Mexico (20-4 overall, 6-2 conference, RPI 33, SOS 100): It wasn't pretty, but a 48-38 home win over Wyoming sets up the Lobos for a defining week. They go on the road to San Diego State on Wednesday and come home to face UNLV on Saturday. They really need to beat one of the league's heavies, or there's just not going to be much meat on the resume come Selection Sunday.
Colorado State (15-8 overall, 4-4 conference, RPI 28, SOS 10): The Rams stumbled big-time Saturday at TCU, losing 75-71. Colorado State is now 0-4 on the road in league play, the sign of a team that probably belongs in the NIT, despite its inflated RPI. It's not impossible to get back in the game at this point, but the Rams better start stringing together some wins.
Wyoming (18-6 overall, 4-4 conference, RPI 65, SOS 118): Losing at New Mexico on Saturday isn't a killer blow, but the Cowboys are still a good ways outside the tournament. They definitely need a sweep this week against Air Force at home and Colorado State on the road.
PAC-12
Locks: None.
Bubble (3): California, Arizona, Washington.
California (20-6 overall, 10-3 conference, RPI 36, SOS 90): A road sweep of the SoCal schools puts the Bears in prime position to win the regular season title, which might do the trick. But with the weakness of the Pac 12 and Cal's 0-3 record against the RPI top 50, they can't feel safe yet.
Arizona (18-8 overall, 9-4 conference, RPI 68, SOS 87): Arizona's 11-8 record against the RPI top 200 is uninspiring, but they've put together four straight wins to get in the conversation. The Wildcats could really help themselves with a road sweep of the Washington schools this week.
Washington (17-8 overall, 10-3 conference, RPI 61, SOS 67): The Huskies got it done Sunday in a must-win situation at Oregon State. The problem is, this team still hasn't beaten anyone, with just two of their wins coming against RPI top-100 teams. The Huskies can secure a season sweep over Arizona on Saturday, which might be important if it comes down to an either/or scenario late in the selection process.
MISSOURI VALLEY
Locks (2): Wichita State, Creighton.
On the bubble: None.
ATLANTIC 10
Locks (1): Temple.
On the bubble (3): Saint Louis, Xavier, Dayton.
Saint Louis (20-5 overall, 8-3 conference, RPI 22, SOS 70): It's going to be really hard to keep the Billikens out, barring a total meltdown. In fact, given the favorable closing schedule, it's more likely they'lll win out heading into the conference tournament.
Xavier (16-9 overall, 7-4 conference, RPI 56, SOS 53): It's starting to fall apart for Xavier, which got pummeled at Temple 85-72 in a game that wasn't as close at the final score. The Muskateers get most of the week off to gear up for an absolute must-win at home against Dayton on Saturday. Hard to believe, but as of today they're probably out.
Dayton (15-9 overall, 5-5 conference, RPI 71, SOS 43): This is a strange team. The Flyers have wins over Minnesota, Alabama, Ole Miss, Saint Louis, Temple and Xavier, but also some horrific losses. It's hard to say what they have to do at this point, but the game at Xavier on Saturday is shaping up to be huge for both teams.
WCC
Locks (2): Saint Mary's, Gonzaga.
On the bubble (1): BYU.
BYU (21-6 overall, 9-3 conference, RPI 46, SOS 85): Barring an upset win at Gonzaga on Feb. 23, it's going to be a really close call for the Cougars, who have just one top-50 win. This week's road trip to San Francisco and Santa Clara will be all about taking care of business and avoiding a bad loss.
CONFERENCE USA
Locks: None.
On the bubble (2): Memphis, Southern Miss.
Memphis (18-7 overall, 8-2 conference, RPI 19, SOS 13): The Tigers have been quietly playing well of late, but their early season struggles against a tough non-conference schedule put them in a delicate spot. Outside of perhaps a road trip to Marshall, the remaining games are in the "should win" category, so the key to getting in will be avoiding a bad loss.
Southern Miss (21-4 overall, 8-2 conference, RPI 10, SOS 40): The formula for USM is pretty much the same as Memphis. Take care of business at home and against the bottom of C-USA and the Golden Eagles should be fine. The RPI is a bit inflated — their best wins are at home against Memphis and at Colorado State — but this is a solid team.
OTHERS
Murray State (24-1 overall, 12-1 conference, RPI 55, SOS 266): The Racers' undefeated run came to an end at home against Tennessee State. They host Saint Mary's in the Bracketbuster on Feb. 18, which could provide some breathing room. But lose that one and drop another regular season game, and suddenly it gets very dicey. Murray State isn't safe yet by a longshot.
Nevada (21-4 overall, 10-1 conference, RPI 57, SOS 156): It's going to be tough to justify an at-large, given the lack of schedule strength, but the record is impressive. The Feb. 18 Bracketbuster game at Iona would be a big help if they can win it.
Harvard (21-3 overall, 7-1 conference, RPI 37, SOS 194): The Crimson suffered their first Ivy loss Saturday at Princeton, but they still have a one-game edge on Yale and Penn and host both teams coming down the stretch. Barring a huge surprise, they won't need an at-large and will wrap up the automatic bid that comes with the Ivy's regular season champion.
Middle Tennessee (23-4 overall, 12-1 conference, RPI 39, SOS 152): This is a really good team, but it might need to win the Sun Belt tournament to get in despite solid non-league wins over Akron, Ole Miss, Belmont and at UCLA. The Blue Raiders probably need to sweep the rest of the regular season and get to the finals of their tournament to have any at-large hope.
Long Beach State (19-6 overall, 12-0 conference, RPI 43, SOS 126): This team's two big non-conference wins — Xavier and Pittsburgh — have lost steam in recent weeks. That's going to make it tough coming out of the Big West unless they can pop a win at Creighton in Saturday's Bracketbuster game. Still, it's hard to fault this quality team for taking care of business, and the RPI looks pretty good at the moment. This team should win its conference tournament, but if not it's going to be a close call.
VCU (22-5 overall, 13-2 conference, RPI 83, SOS 235): Last year's Final Four Cinderella is actually having a better season this year, but the Colonial as a whole didn't do enough in the non-conference schedule to get multiple teams in the at-large conversation. VCU is on the fringe of the discussion, but an outright regular season title would merit consideration.
