ACC
Locks (3): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State.
Bubble (3): Miami, N.C. State, Virginia.
Virginia (21-6 overall, 8-5 conference, RPI 42, SOS 104): The Cavaliers are probably solid, but they have one really good win (against Michigan) and a bunch of OK victories. That’s a recipe for trouble if they tank down the stretch. With three losses already to teams below 100 in the RPI, Tuesday night's win Virginia Tech was one they needed to put in the bank.
Miami (16-10 overall, 7-6 conference, RPI 46, SOS 30): The Hurricanes didn't get the home win over North Carolina that would have really solidified their case, so it'll be touch-and-go from here on out. After Tuesday night's loss at Maryland, Miami needs to play its way in. Though the Hurricanes will get some slack for big man Reggie Johnson missing the first half of the season due to injuries, they have just the one good win at Duke and not much else.
N.C. State (18-10 overall, 7-6 conference, RPI 60, SOS 42): The Wolfpack had Duke on the ropes in Cameron, up 20 with fewer than 12 minutes left. But they couldn’t close the deal, and you wonder if that might have been their best chance. A home loss to Florida State on Saturday was another blow, and Tuesday's home loss to North Carolina could be the knockout punch.
BIG TEN
Locks (5): Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana.
On the Bubble (4): Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Minnesota.
Purdue (17-10 overall, 7-7 conference, RPI 51, SOS 23): Just when things were starting to look good for Purdue, guard Kelsey Barlow was kicked off the team for a violation of team rules. That's a huge blow down the stretch, and Purdue is going to be sweating if it finishes 9-9 in the Big Ten.
Illinois (16-12 overall, 5-10 conference, RPI 70, SOS 28): You can pretty much write off Illinois, which lost 80-57 at Nebraska on Saturday, and followed that up with Tuesday's 83-67 defeat at Ohio State.
Minnesota (17-10 overall, 5-9 conference, RPI 73 SOS 57): The Gophers aren't out of it, but they’ve done nothing to strengthen their position. They've got Michigan State at home on Wednesday and Indiana on Saturday, and they need at least one of the two – and probably both – to have a fighting chance. After losing at Northwestern last Saturday, however, it’s a huge uphill battle to get in now.
Northwestern (16-11 overall, 6-9 conference, RPI 43 SOS 10): The Wildcats got a crIt was crucial to beat Minnesota at home Saturday, and now the Wildcats have a big opportunity Tuesday against Michigan. The 5-11 record against the RPI top 100 is a huge negative at this point.
BIG 12
Locks (3): Kansas, Missouri, Baylor.
On the bubble (3): Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas.
Iowa State (19-8 overall, 9-5 conference, RPI 41, SOS 58): This is getting closer to a done deal for the Cyclones, though they really need one of their last three games – all against tournament-bound opponents – to put themselves in for certain. It won't be easy.
Kansas State (19-8 overall, 8-7 conference, RPI 49, SOS 63): Tuesday night's impressive win at Missouri, coupled with a one-point win at Baylor over the weekend, should be enough to allow the Wildcats to be worry-free on Selection Sunday.
Texas (17-11 overall, 7-8 conference, RPI 59 SOS 19): All the statistics and advanced metrics suggest Texas is an NCAA Tournament team, but the resume does not at this point. Monday night's home loss to Baylor was a huge blown opportunity, and now the Longhorns are just 3-9 against the RPI top 100. Now, the only game left that can help them is March 3 at Kansas, which will obviously be a tall order. It's looking like they may need to make a run at the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City.
BIG EAST
Locks (5): Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame.
On the bubble (5): Cincinnati, West Virginia, UConn, Seton Hall, South Florida.
Cincinnati (19-8 overall, 9-5 conference, RPI 80, SOS 124): Cincy is an odd case. The Bearcats have some good wins (at Georgetown, at UConn, Notre Dame) and have played a lot of very good opponents. But the computers aren't impressed, the RPI and SOS being dragged down by nine games against teams ranked 200 or worse (including an inexplicable Nov. 19 loss to Presbyterian). The schedule actually sets up well for a strong close, but for now the numbers don't do justice to just how good their resume is.
West Virginia (17-10 overall, 7-7 conference, RPI 40 SOS 7): It's hard to imagine a team needing a win more this week than the Mountaineers, and they got it last Thursday on the road at rival Pittsburgh. That stopped a streak of five losses in six games and puts West Virginia in a much better position down the stretch. It's still going to be tough, with a road trip to Notre Dame on Wednesday and Marquette at home next Friday, but at least the Mountaineers have a chance to improve on their 3-7 record against the RPI top 50.
UConn (17-10 overall, 7-8 conference, RPI 24, SOS 2): Shabazz Napier’s long 3-pointer to beat Villanova on Monday night was huge because it kept UConn ahead of bubble after an ugly home loss to Marquette on Saturday. The Huskies get Syracuse at home on Saturday, which would be an opportunity to the debate about whether they belong in.
Seton Hall (19-9 overall, 8-8 conference, RPI 38, SOS 32): The Pirates got the signature win they needed when they knocked off No. 9 Georgetown Tuesday night. But at least one win in the Big East Tournament wouldn't hurt.
South Florida (17-10 overall, 10-4 conference, RPI 50, SOS 40): After winning at Pittsburgh on Sunday, South Florida has officially launched itself into the debate. The Bulls' resume isn't good. They're just 1-6 against the RPI top-50, 4-7 against the top-100, and their best win came against Seton Hall. They also got stung by Old Dominion and Penn State at a tournament in November when point guard Anthony Collins was injured, but those are still bad-looking losses. If they win remaining home games against Cincinnati and West Virginia to reach 12 conference wins, can you really leave them out?
SEC
Locks (3): Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt.
On the bubble (3): Mississippi State, Alabama, LSU.
Mississippi State (19-8 overall, 6-7 conference, RPI 57, SOS 72): Talk about a program that can't stand prosperity. Just when you thought this was shaping up to be a rare year for the Bulldogs, who are usually sweating on Selection Sunday, they lose at home to Georgia and then drop consecutive road games at LSU and Auburn. Letting No. 1 Kentucky off the hook Tuesday night means they will be in a really tough spot if they lose at Alabama on Saturday.
Alabama (17-9 overall, 6-6 conference, RPI 34, SOS 16): Credit the Crimson Tide for hanging in there and beating Tennessee on Saturday despite all kinds of suspensions and injuries to keep their NCAA Tournament chances alive. It will be difficult for the committee to evaluate this team, though, after Monday’s announcement that forward Tony Mitchell is suspended for the rest of the season. They're in right now but need to do something down the stretch to prove they still belong in.
LSU (16-10 overall, 6-6 conference, RPI 63, SOS 49): This might be a team to watch down the stretch. The Tigers’ schedule is pretty favorable, and if they can win out to get to 20-10 heading into the conference tournament, they’ll be in the mix. At the moment, though, LSU’s 10-10 record against the top 200 leaves it out and none of its remaining games really helps enhance the resume.
MOUNTAIN WEST
Locks (2): San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico.
On the bubble (1): Colorado State.
Colorado State (17-9 overall, 6-5 conference, RPI 30, SOS 13): The computer numbers still look good, but that's misleading. The Rams' hopes have been severely damaged by consecutive road losses to TCU and Boise State. But they picked up a big win Tuesday night over No. 18 New Mexico, and have a chance for another at home against UNLV.
PAC-12
Locks: None.
Bubble (3): California, Arizona, Washington.
California (22-6 overall, 12-3 conference, RPI 29, SOS 78): A sweep of the Oregon schools last weekend kept the Bears tied with Washington for the conference lead. They could very well have zero top-50 wins on Selection Sunday, which is scary for a bubble team. But if they can win their remaining three games – all on the road – it’s almost certainly going to be enough.
Arizona (19-9 overall, 10-5 conference, RPI 68, SOS 86): Another Pac-12 team with no good non-conference wins, the Wildcats are in serious trouble. The remaining schedule offers no opportunity to impress the selection committee, so they likely need to win the league tournament to get in.
Washington (19-8 overall, 12-3 conference, RPI 55, SOS 69): The Huskies have won eight of nine, but their final three games are on the road and there's no margin for error. Washington is just 3-8 against the RPI top 100, and the best hope is to win the Pac 12 regular season title and hope the committee thinks that's enough.
MISSOURI VALLEY
Locks (2): Wichita State, Creighton.
On the bubble: None.
ATLANTIC 10
Locks (1): Temple.
On the bubble (4): Saint Louis, Xavier, Dayton, St. Joseph’s.
Saint Louis (22-5 overall, 10-3 conference, RPI 22, SOS 80): It's going to be really hard to keep the Billikens out, barring a total meltdown. In fact, given the favorable closing schedule, it's more likely they'll win out heading into the conference tournament.
Xavier (17-9 overall, 8-4 conference, RPI 52, SOS 56): The Musketeers got a season-saving overtime win over Dayton on Saturday, but took a hard fall with Tuesday night's 80-73 loss at UMass. This is going to come down to the wire.
Dayton (16-10 overall, 6-6 conference, RPI 74, SOS 50): This is a strange team. The Flyers have wins over Minnesota, Alabama, Ole Miss, Saint Louis, Temple and Xavier but also some horrific losses. Winning out is a requirement at this point.
St. Joseph's (18-10 overall, 8-5 conference, RPI 48, SOS 51): It's hard to believe this team is under consideration, but the bubble is weak enough to put them in the mix. St. Joe's has a good December win over Creighton, but not much else. Its next-best wins came against Drexel, La Salle and Dayton, and there are three losses to sub-100 RPI teams to consider. This team badly needs to beat crosstown rival Temple on Saturday.
WCC
Locks (1): Gonzaga.
On the bubble (2): St. Mary’s, BYU.
St. Mary’s (23-5 overall, 12-2 conference, RPI 33, SOS 108): The tough part about life in the WCC is that a couple losses can suddenly bring danger of missing the tournament. St. Mary's was cruising along until losing three of four – including Saturday's Bracketbuster game at Murray State – and now Gaels aren't safe at all. It's going to be important to win the last two at Portland and San Francisco to stay above water.
BYU (23-6 overall, 11-3 conference, RPI 47, SOS 107): The Cougars face a huge Thursday trip to Gonzaga that could lock up their bid. Short of winning that game, it's going to be a little bit dicey because they’re just 1-4 against the RPI top 50. Still, as long as they beat Portland on Feb. 25 and don't lose to anyone in the conference tournament aside from Gonzaga or St. Mary's, their chances are pretty good.
CONFERENCE USA
Locks: None.
On the bubble (3): Memphis, Southern Miss, Central Florida.
Memphis (19-8 overall, 9-3 conference, RPI 26, SOS 15): Just when it looked like Memphis was getting close to lock status, it dropped a home game to UTEP, 60-58. That loss really reduced the Tigers' margin for error, and now it would be highly advisable to go at least 3-1 down the stretch or they might need to win the conference tournament. Luckily for Memphis, it's on their home floor.
Southern Miss (22-5 overall, 9-3 conference, RPI 11, SOS 39): Memphis' bad loss on Saturday afternoon was followed by Southern Miss' bad loss at Houston on Saturday night. Though it didn't hurt their computer numbers too badly, losing to a sub-200 RPI team in February is never a good thing. A 3-1 finish will probably be good enough to lock up a bid for the Golden Eagles.
Central Florida (19-7 overall, 8-4 conference, RPI 54, SOS 97): The Knights have been hanging on the fringe of the discussion and a favorable schedule down the stretch might put them in position for a bid. Top-50 RPI wins over Connecticut and Memphis are about all they have to draw on, however, so it'll be tough.
OTHERS
Murray State (26-1 overall, 13-1 conference, RPI 36, SOS 209): Beating St. Mary's in the Bracketbuster was huge and likely puts the Racers in the field regardless of their performance in the conference tournament. Kudos to first-year coach Steve Prohm on a great season.
Nevada (22-5 overall, 10-1 conference, RPI 58, SOS 149): Losing its Bracketbuster game at Iona isn't a bad loss, but from an at-large perspective was pretty damaging. The record is impressive, but there’s just not much heft to the non-conference resume.
Harvard (23-3 overall, 9-1 conference, RPI 31, SOS 188): The Crimson seems unlikely to need an at-large, since the Ivy’s automatic bid goes to the regular season champion. Still, they haven’t locked it up yet and will need to beat primary rival Penn once more on Feb. 25.
Middle Tennessee (24-4 overall, 13-1 conference, RPI 35, SOS 151): This is a really good team, but it might need to win the Sun Belt tournament to get in despite solid non-league wins over Akron, Ole Miss, Belmont and at UCLA. The Blue Raiders probably need to sweep the rest of the regular season and get to the finals of the tournament to have any at-large hope.
Long Beach State (19-7 overall, 12-0 conference, RPI 37, SOS 101): Losing a large second-half lead at Creighton in Saturday’s Bracketbuster game is a tough blow to the at-large resume. Still, it's hard to find many bubble teams better than this one, which beat Xavier and Pittsburgh early in the season. But will the committee see it the same way?
Drexel (23-5 overall, 14-2 conference, RPI 71, SOS 244): The Dragons have won 14 straight in the Colonial race and appear poised to win the regular season title over George Mason and VCU. Coupled with Saturday’s Bracketbuster win at Cleveland State, that would be a pretty strong resume despite poor computer numbers – especially in a year with so many bubble teams struggling to play their way in. The biggest knock is a non-conference schedule strength of 233.
VCU (23-6 overall, 13-3 conference, RPI 69, SOS 197): The Rams are in a similar spot as Drexel – not a lot of eye-catching wins but a great record in a very competitive conference. If they can win their last two games and get to the finals of the Colonial tournament, there’s at least a chance the committee will give them a look.
Oral Roberts (25-5, 16-1 conference, RPI 45, SOS 171): Given this team's dominance over the Summit League, it probably won't need an at-large. But just in case, Oral Roberts has pretty solid credentials and a 4-3 record against the RPI top 100. The Golden Eagles belong in the field regardless.
