Big East Power Rankings: Villanova on top, but then what?
OK, fine, I’ll admit it – I cheated. And I’m glad I did.
What follows is my first Big East power rankings of the 2014-15 season. I’ll do this about once a month as the season progresses. Consider these my preseason rankings.
Except, you know, it’s not actually the preseason any more.
I did this because going into the season, there weren’t many conferences out there that had as many question marks as the Big East. It was Villanova and everyone else -- but the “everyone else” part was very much in flux. I wanted to see a little bit of action before making my bets. Unfair? Yes. Prudent? Absolutely.
And so we begin December after some huge and surprising Big East non-conference wins in November: Butler over fifth-ranked UNC, Creighton over 18th-ranked Oklahoma, Georgetown over 18th-ranked Florida, and DePaul over Stanford, a team that made the Sweet 16 a year ago. Things haven’t shaken out exactly as we expected. Xavier, a team that would have been my dark-horse pick to finish second in the Big East before the season, has had a couple of tough losses, against UTEP and Long Beach State, while Creighton, a team that Big East coaches picked to finish next-to-last after losing Doug McDermott and three other seniors from last year’s offensive juggernaut, beat Oklahoma and broke into the Top 25.
This early in a season, conference RPI rankings are hugely unreliable. They’ll fluctuate plenty in the coming months. But conferences only have about seven weeks to prove themselves against non-conference opponents before conference season begins and the narrative of certain conferences is already set. And a third of the way through non-conference season, the Big East ranks second in conference RPI, according to RealTimeRPI.com. That’s the single most surprising conference this early in the season.
Here’s how I see the hierarchy of the Big East at this point. I expect the hierarchy to change quite a bit between now and the Big East tip-off on New Year’s Eve -- and even more once conference play begins.
1. Villanova (6-0). Best November win: Over No. 14 VCU, 77-53. Biggest December non-conference game: Hosting Syracuse Dec. 20.
Just a typical Jay Wright team, with great guard play and depth, scrappiness plus unselfishness. The guy I projected as this team’s top scorer, senior guard Darrun Hilliard, hasn’t been making shots yet, shooting only 25 percent from three, but it hasn’t mattered in Wright’s starless system. Seven players are averaging 7.8 points or higher, with junior Dylan Ennis, the older brother of NBA rookie Tyler Ennis, leading the way. What I’ve been most impressed and surprised with, though, is the frontcourt play, led by senior JayVaughn Pinkston -- whose last-second block saved the day against 19th-ranked Michigan -- and junior center Daniel Ochefu. Ochefu started rolling in the middle of last season, and Villanova coaches told me they expected him to be a difference-maker this year. He has been, averaging 9.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and 1.5 blocks. If he stays healthy and keeps producing, this could be a Final Four team.
2. Providence (6-1). Best November win: Over Notre Dame, 75-74. Biggest December non-conference game: Against Miami Dec. 22 in the Brooklyn Hoops Holiday Invitational.
After Villanova begins the uncertainty. I’m going with Ed Cooley’s Friars here, despite the fact they didn’t have a true signature November win. At this point of the season, you could put four other teams here, maybe more, and I wouldn’t argue. I put Providence here for two reasons: LaDontae Henton and Kris Dunn. Henton scored a career-high 38 points in the Friars’ win over Notre Dame in one of the most impressive breakout performances in this young season. I wasn’t shocked -- one NBA guy told me in the preseason that Henton was one of his sleepers for this season -- but I didn’t expect it to be so dramatic and so early. (Just like Providence’s 20-point loss to Kentucky on Sunday, I’m discounting Henton’s three-point, one-for-eight performance against Kentucky as something we’ll call “Wildcat Fever.” It will affect lots of teams this season.) And Dunn, once considered a top recruit who has been derailed by injuries, has averaged 6.7 assists at the point this season. He missed one game in November; keep an eye on his health. If he is hobbled, Providence will struggle.
3. Georgetown (4-2). Best November win: Over No. 18 Florida, 66-65 in overtime. Best November near-win: Lost to No. 2 Wisconsin, 68-65. Biggest December non-conference game: Hosting Kansas on Dec. 10.
Yes, I’m putting a two-loss team over a bunch of zero- and one-loss teams. That’s because I was so impressed by Georgetown’s performance against No. 2 Wisconsin in the Battle 4 Atlantis -- a one-possession loss where Georgetown looked in control for much of the game -- that I’m putting the Hoyas ahead of even Butler, a team that beat Georgetown in the Bahamas. D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera looks like the Big East player of the year candidate we expected, leading this team in scoring and assists, but the difference-makers on this team are big, talented center Josh Smith -- who is so far averaging a career-high in minutes, points and rebounds -- and freshmen L.J. Peak and Paul White.
4. Butler (5-1). Best November win: Over No. 5 UNC, 74-66. Biggest December non-conference game: Against Indiana Dec. 20.
In the span of three days in the Bahamas, Butler underwent a metamorphosis: from a program that seemed in flux due to head coach Brandon Miller’s medical leave, to the biggest surprise in the Big East -- perhaps in all of college basketball -- at this early point. Butler had 29 offensive rebounds against a taller, more athletic North Carolina team in what was the biggest November upset of a ranked team. (UNC was fifth in the nation.) Then, after losing to an Oklahoma team that could contend in the Big 12, Butler beat conference rival Georgetown. All-around grinder Roosevelt Jones’ return has been huge, and Kellen Dunham has been typically stellar on the offensive end, shooting higher than 40 percent from three. But it’s been freshman forward Kelan Martin who has been a revelation. In limited minutes -- Martin hasn’t played more than 18 minutes in a game yet -- he’s averaged 10.8 points for the Bulldogs. Looking at Butler’s December schedule, every game is winnable. It’s entirely possible Butler enters conference play with only one loss.
5. Xavier (4-2). Best November win: Over Stephen F. Austin, 81-63. Biggest December non-conference game: Hosting Florida Gulf Coast on Dec. 27.
I only knock Xavier down a little bit after losing a close game to Long Beach State in the Wooden Legacy Tournament, because that was the second time Xavier had faced Long Beach State in two weeks, and in the first meeting the Musketeers blew them out of the water. In December, Xavier has three games against SEC schools -- Alabama, Missouri and Auburn -- and could easily go 3-0. Hell, Xavier should go 3-0 against those schools; the SEC (minus Kentucky) has been as surprisingly bad as the Big East has been surprisingly good. I’m more interested in the post-Christmas game hosting of Florida Gulf Coast. FGCU ought to be a tournament team this season, and Xavier’s biggest December test. This team has that mix of experience and blue-chip talent that I’m always looking for. Matt Stainbrook might be the best big man in the Big East, and Trevon Bluiett might be the best freshman. If Jalen Reynolds unleashes his inner beast, Xavier could swing toward the top of the Big East.
6. Creighton (6-1). Best November win: Over No. 18 Oklahoma, 65-63. Biggest December non-conference game: At Nebraska on Dec. 7.
Here’s what Creighton has proven to me in the first part of this season: The Bluejays aren’t nearly as bad as the team Big East coaches expected to finish next to last. They also aren’t nearly as good as the team AP poll voters put in the Top 25 after an upset win over Oklahoma. The Oklahoma win was an absolute statement: Never underestimate a Greg McDermott team. That night might have been the best November home-court environment in college hoops. But I don’t expect that to continue. In McDermott’s first season at Creighton without his son, a tournament appearance should still be considered a long shot. If Creighton does make the tournament, we might as well put the “genius coach” crown on McDermott. These guys can still really shoot the ball -- leading scorer Isaiah Zierden is hitting threes at a nearly 50 percent clip -- but losing four starting seniors with 19 combined years of college experience inevitably will take a huge hit.
7. St. John’s (4-1). Best November win: Over Minnesota, 70-61. Biggest December non-conference game: At Syracuse on Dec. 6.
I’m worried about St. John’s. I’m not worried that the Red Storm lost to Gonzaga in the NIT Season Tip-Off; Gonzaga was ranked 10th at the time and looks like one of the nation’s best teams, especially on the offensive end. That’s going to happen to a lot of good teams this year. I’m just worried that St. John’s doesn’t have enough length down low, especially after losing juco transfer Keith Thomas to academic eligibility issues. I visited St. John’s in the offseason, and when I saw Thomas practice, he seemed like the big, brawny body this team needed down low. He made me bullish on St. John’s. Without him, tons of pressure falls on Chris Obekpa’s broad shoulders. This might be the second-best backcourt in the Big East (Villanova is just so deep and talented), with Rysheed Jordan, D’Angelo Harrison and Phil Greene IV. The backcourt could shoot St. John’s up in the rankings. With one more big body in the frontcourt, I would be much more optimistic about this team’s chances.
8. Seton Hall (5-0). Best November win: Over George Washington, 58-54. Biggest December non-conference game: At Wichita State Dec. 9.
The only reason I don’t have the Pirates higher is because they haven’t really been tested with a tough matchup yet. That will happen in a week, when Kevin Willard’s young, talented team heads to Wichita to take on one of the nation’s best programs. I don’t expect the Pirates to snap Wichita State’s year-and-a-half-long streak of regular season victories. If they do, I’m putting the Pirates as high as second in my next Big East rankings. This is still the Big East’s most intriguing team. Sterling Gibbs has been awesome, averaging nearly 20 points per game and shooting nearly 60 percent from three. Willard’s stud freshmen have been really good, too, with Isaiah Whitehead averaging more than 10 points per game and Angel Delgado averaging nearly 10 rebounds per game. Ranking them this low is no indictment on Seton Hall. Consider it to be this team’s floor, and will only go up with a solid December. Seton Hall has a shot to be pretty good this season.
9. DePaul (4-1). Best November win: Over Stanford, 87-72. Biggest December non-conference game: Against Colorado in the Diamond Head Classic on Dec. 22.
Wait -- DePaul beat Stanford? The same Stanford team that went to the Sweet 16 a year ago (minus a couple of guys who left for the pros)? And beat Stanford by 15? Wow. That might be Oliver Purnell’s biggest statement win in years. Sophomore point guard Billy Garrett Jr. is one of the most calm and mature young point guards in the country, and sophomore center Tommy Hamilton IV is a really talented big man. But it’s been junior forward Myke Henry, who sat out last season after transferring from Illinois, who has been the biggest difference since last year’s team. He hung 29 points on Stanford.
10. Marquette (4-3). Best November win: Over Georgia Tech, 72-70. Biggest December non-conference game: Hosting Wisconsin Dec. 6.
I’m not at all worried about Marquette long-term. In fact, I’m quite bullish on Marquette long-term. In his first few months in Milwaukee, first-time head coach Steve Wojciechowski has signed three top-100 recruits, including Henry Ellenson, an upstate Wisconsin big man who may be the most talented big man in the 2015 class. This is one of the nation’s top recruiting classes for next year. For this year, though, Wojo is working with a pretty empty cupboard left by previous coach Buzz Williams. When BYU transfer Matt Carlino is hot from three, like he was in his 38-point, 8-of-14-from-three performance against Georgia Tech, this team can win some games. And Marquette coaches told me they expect big things from sophomore swingman Deonte Burton this year. But this has the makings of a long season at Marquette. Losing to Big Ten powers Ohio State and Michigan State? Totally cool, totally to be expected. Losing to Nebraska Omaha? At home? And allowing 97 points in the process? Yikes.
Follow Reid Forgrave on Twitter @reidforgrave or email him at ReidForgrave@gmail.com.
