What could the Big 12 basketball conference look like if things break down in the future?
Big 12 expansion is one of the bigger debate topics going on right now. The conference could decide to add anywhere from zero to four teams at their fall meeting in October.
I’ve given you my thoughts on where the current contenders rank. The question is whether schools like Houston, Cincinnati, or BYU are enough to save the conference. Where would schools go if things break down at the end of the current television deals in 2024-25? What could Big 12 realignment look like?
Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are long-time members of the conference. They were originally part of the Big 8 that combined with remnants of the Southwest Conference in 1996.
OU was nearly gone to the Pac 12 several years ago and if Oklahoma president David Boren’s recent comments are any indication, then the Sooners would likely bolt for greener pastures in 2025. If Oklahoma goes, they would likely take their historic partner Oklahoma State with them.
If the Oklahoma schools do indeed leave the Big 12, where would they go? Oklahoma State almost has a guarantee to go with the Sooners due to strong support from a huge alumni base.
Legislators would likely not allow the two schools to separate without ensuring The Bedlam Series is guaranteed.
No matter the conference, Oklahoma would have to share space with programs just as successful and influential as them. Whether it’s Michigan and Ohio State in the Big Ten, USC, UCLA and Arizona in the Pac-12, or the SEC’s multitude of heavyweights (Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M, etc.), Oklahoma would have much less influence at the expense of money.
In return, Texas would get further away from Oklahoma. Of the major conferences, Texas and Texas Tech would likely join the SEC. Texas has long prided itself on being the best, so I can’t imagine they’d turn down a potential invitation to rejoin their old Texas A&M rivals and contest the SEC hegemony.
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Texas Tech, like OSU, shares a state institution relationship similar to the one across the Red River. The Chancellor’s Spurs don’t have the fame of The Bedlam Series, but alumni certainly would invest heavily to see it continue.
So, if we have OU/OSU and UT/TTU going elsewhere, what happens to the other six schools currently in the Big 12? West Virginia could apply for SEC membership, but even more likely is for them to apply to the ACC. The Mountaineers have historic rivalries with Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech.
Resuming their former Big East membership wouldn’t work as the conference reformed around private schools that do not have football programs.
Kansas, Kansas State, and Iowa State have been together for decades and likely would prefer to remain together. The Big Ten would love Kansas for basketball (and would maybe take Iowa State along for Iowa), but Kansas State is a hard addition with their lack of prestige in any athletic arena.
However, I believe the Mountain West or MAC would happily accept all three. Their collective reputation as academic institutions with passionate fan bases would boost those conferences to an unseen level.
The final schools, TCU and Baylor would be in an awkward spot as the only private schools in the conference. TCU could go back to their old Mountain West home and take Baylor with them.
The other Texas schools could also opt to join Conference USA with several close neighbors like Rice, North Texas, Tulane, and UTEP. They could also lobby for an outside shot at the SEC.
The other six schools could also retain the Big 12 title and hunt for new members. They would have a solid base from which to re-expand the brand. Depending on who joins the conference this time around, they could center their footprint around the middle of the country. The remaining schools would try to keep the Big 12 name and relocate to the former headquarters in Kansas City.
I personally would want to see most of the old Big 8 to reform and bring in new blood not tied to Texas and Oklahoma. A big name school would get attached to any future effort out sheer necessity; money still drives the conversation after all.
The point is that smaller conferences could get bigger, or a new conference could form. Potential Big 12 realignment could radically alter a segment of the college sports landscape.
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