One of the biggest UFC shocks this week has been the removal of Nick Diaz from a scheduled fight with Georges St. Pierre. A fight building for some time, and scheduled for UFC 137, has been removed because Diaz’s personal issues.
Dana White said his only concern with Diaz would be for him to “play the game” when it comes to fight promotion and personal conduct, etc, and his worst fears must’ve come true as Diaz opted to no-show everything and force his hand.
Carlos Condit was already on the card in a stroke of luck, scheduled to face B.J. Penn, and was the next in line for GSP. Condit's decision to take the fight with Penn instead of waiting for the welterweight champion, ostensibly to stay busy and avoid a lengthy layoff, has turned into a masterpiece of timing for the UFC. Placed on the same card, it has turned out to be a brilliant decision along the same lines of having Shane Carwin on the undercard of the formerly scheduled Brock Lesnar-Junior Dos Santos fight.
Condit now steps in and, since he was training for a fight on the same card, his camp won’t have to be adjusted significantly. St. Pierre is an altogether different fighter but the basic physics of preparing for a fight in terms of his weight cut, etc., aren’t going to change. His game plan and practice will, of course, have to change but he has enough time to do so without compromising his abilities as a fighter.
What could’ve been a disaster for the UFC has merely turned into a disaster for just Penn. And Penn will probably get a different top opponent instead of Condit, and be in the same position of a title elimination fight. Perhaps he could be positioned against Jon Fitch to replace the prior main event of Dos Santos and Cain Velasquez in Fitch’s native San Jose for UFC 139 in a five-round affair, which would be a great fight and get some closure to their majority draw earlier in the year.
So Penn could almost come out in a better position. The only person who loses out in this entire scenario is St. Pierre.
Why?
He’s gone from having a tough but winnable fight with Diaz into an all out war with a teammate in Condit.
While it might seem like rhetoric from GSP to say that Condit is a tougher matchup than Condit, Condit matches up far more favorably to St. Pierre than Diaz does. Diaz’s main strength in that fight would be his moxie; he hasn’t shown the ability to stop someone with a strong wrestling base and was a massive underdog to the Canadian champion. Diaz's strengths matched up favorably, from his cardio to his boxing, but his one major weakness was St. Pierre’s strength. Nothing Diaz has done since leaving the UFC has shown that weakness has been remedied.
No one could deny that, not even Diaz’s camp.
The one thing Condit brings to the fight with St. Pierre that Diaz wouldn’t is the ability to defend against GSP’s wrestling strength. He has shown in the past the ability to use his offensive guard from the bottom to his advantage, something that doesn’t neutralize GSP’s weapon but will give him pause before using it. Diaz’s ground game is designed to stifle this, by using his ability on his back to work for submissions and keep opponents in his guard. GSP can take him down and keep him there; Condit’s bottom game is much different.
Condit’s is likely to get out as soon as possible and work like crazy to do so; St. Pierre won’t be able to count on an opponent letting him lay on top of him and let him work his top-position game. Condit has strong submissions from the bottom, as well, but he’s not one to lie there and wait for his opportunity like Diaz. Condit’s bottom game is functionally different and GSP’s game will be to work on keeping him on his back as opposed to avoiding submissions like Diaz. He hasn’t faced someone with a bottom game like Condit’s.
It’s a fundamental shift in St. Pierre’s game plan from a fighter like Diaz. Condit also has true one-punch knockout power, like Diaz, so GSP’s going to have work on head movement and avoiding getting caught. This is the first opponent St. Pierre has faced since Thiago Alves with legitimate and repeatable knockout power in his hands. Condit also has a more diverse striking game, as well. Diaz is known for using his hands exclusively whereas Condit has knockout power with his legs, as well as his hands and just recently used a flying knee to finish off Dong Hyun Kim. He now has to prepare for leg strikes as well as punches, which is a big change.
St. Pierre is still a heavy favorite, probably getting similar betting odds against Condit that Diaz was, but he’s now got an opponent who will push him in a different direction. Will it be as good a fight, or as intriguing at least, as GSP-Nick Diaz was? Perhaps not. But Condit’s hands and aggressive attitude are going to make this a fun fight at a minimum.
