UFC Fight Night: dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2 Crystal Ball Predictions
Do you like watching world title fights without a pay-per-view premium price tag? Then you'll want to be sure to tune in to FS1 Saturday for an incredible card out of Orlando, Florida.
Lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos defends his lightweight championship in a rematch against Donald Cerrone in the main event of Saturday's UFC Fight Night. Both men look remade since their 2013 contest, making this a pick 'em contest.
In the co-main event, former champion Junior Dos Santos finally gets his hands on Alistair Overeem, in a fight with title-shot implications. Below that, Nate Diaz returns against Michael Johnson.
The two lightweights have already begun their scrapping in Orlando after they had to be separated during a hotel altercation. It's sure-fire action and nonstop trash talk here.
Read on for FS1 card analysis and predictions. Then let us know who you're picking!
Rafael dos Anjos (24-7) vs. Donald Cerrone (28-6, 1 NC)
This fight is so hard to call because both fighters have improved so much since their 2013 contest. Back then, dos Anjos won a clear-cut decision over Cerrone.
Since then, Cerrone has won eight straight bouts. Dos Anjos looked better than ever, however, in knocking Benson Henderson out and dominating Nate Diaz and then-champion Anthony Pettis.
To win, Cerrone will need to be light on his toes for five rounds, scoring from the outside and frustrating the champion. If Cerrone stands in front of dos Anjos, the champion can connect with his own powerful body kicks and, more importantly, his heavy punches.
Dos Anjos is a submission expert, but he won't want to dive into the ground with abandon against the slick Cerrone either. If Cerrone can get dos Anjos shooting in out of frustration, he could edge him out.
It won't be easy to keep dos Anjos out of his face, however. The x-factor here is both men's power.
They can both hurt each other badly, but Cerrone may have the more dangerous one-shot KO power.
Prediction: Dos Anjos by decision
Junior Dos Santos (17-3) vs. Alistair Overeem (39-14-1)
This fight is being billed as a contest between two MMA legends. It is not.
Dos Santos is one of the best heavyweights in the sport's history and has a world title to his credit. Overeem is an elite fighter who has never come close to winning a world title in MMA, though he was a champion in kickboxing.
Overeem has big power in his throws and strikes, so he will be a serious threat. With that said, Dos Santos has more power and is much more well-rounded.
As long as Dos Santos has recovered well from his injuries and surgery and hasn't become too easily felled from all his wars, he should be the favorite here.
Prediction: Dos Santos by KO
Michael Johnson (17-9) vs. Nate Diaz (18-10)
Diaz hadn’t fought in a while due to a contract dispute with the UFC, and then did not look good against now-champion Rafael dos Anjos. In the meantime, Johnson has become one of the best lightweights in the world.
Diaz -- along with his brother Nick -- has some of the best volume punching in MMA, as well as some of the most accurate. I do worry that his hand speed may not be enough to keep up with Johnson's quickness, however.
Nate will need to cut off the ring against Johnson -- which he's good at -- but also avoid getting taken down when he does. Johnson is the better wrestler here, but I don't yet know if he has the submission defense skills to stay safe on the ground against Diaz.
Tough fight to call. I'll say Diaz still has some pep left in his step and go with him.
Prediction: Diaz by submission
Randa Markos (5-3) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (7-0)
Good fight between two women not afraid to stand and trade strikes in the pocket. Poland's KK has the better-looking record, but I think Markos can get this to the ground and submit the UFC debutant.
Prediction: Markos by second-round rear-naked choke
Charles Oliveira (20-5-1) vs. Myles Jury (15-1)
This has a good chance of being Fight of the Night. Oliveira is coming off an unfortunate early-fight injury in his previous bout, and Jury looks to make an impact at featherweight.
Oliveira is wily on the feet and dangerous on the ground, especially with front head chokes. Jury has the better footwork, however, and will hold the wrestling advantage.
Prediction: Jury by decision
CB Dollaway (16-8) vs. Nate Marquardt (36-15-2)
Marquardt is an incredibly well-rounded fighter who has challenged for and held major titles. He's got more experience than most MMA fighters ever will and at his best was one of the very best middleweights in the world.
Time catches up to everyone, however, and Nate hasn't looked like himself of late. There's no shame in that at all, but Dollaway may be able to take advantage of that in this fight.
Dollaway's striking improves every fight, and he has solid wrestling. That, combined with a slight speed advantage, could be the difference.
Prediction: Dollaway by decision
Sarah Kaufman (17-3-1) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (11-1)
Kaufman may not have the athleticism Shevchenko does, but she's got too much skill, experience and toughness.
Prediction: Kaufman by decision
Josh Samman (12-3) vs. Tamdan McCrory (13-3)
McCrory has big advantages, including his size, experience and submission ability. Samman moves better on the feet, however, and is more explosive with his striking.
I think Samman can catch McCrory coming back slow with a punch and sting with kicks. Even though he's the longer fighter, McCrory should try to get and stay inside of Samman in hopes of getting into position to work submissions.
Prediction: Samman by decision
Nik Lentz (27-7-2-1) vs. Danny Castillo (17-9)
I'm not quite sure that lightweight is the best class for Lentz, but you have to assume he's here because he feels stronger and healthier than at featherweight. He'll need plenty of strength to grapple with Castillo of Team Alpha Male.
Castillo fought Jim Miller very close in July and is a tough out. Lentz is hard-nosed and perhaps a tad more well-rounded, however.
Tough to call, but Lentz has sharper striking and better submission ability.
Prediction: Lentz by decision
Cole Miller (21-9) vs. Jim Alers (13-2)
Alers is a very good Brazilian jiu-jitsu competitor who is physically strong and explosive everywhere. He likely has a speed advantage on the feet against Miller.
Miller is an accurate and long puncher, however. If his timing is good, he can still out-box Alers.
On the ground, Miller is one of the best submission artists in the world and has been for some time. As long as Miller's conditioning is on point and he can get inside, he should have what it takes to attack all fight long and beat Alers.
Prediction: Miller by third-round submission
