UFC 178: Johnson vs. Cariaso Crystal Ball predictions
Is UFC 178 the best event of the year? You can make a pretty good case for it.
Every fight on the main card features a ranked fighter and there are three more ranked competitors on the prelims. There's a title fight in the main event, two significant returns and the long-anticipated UFC debut of Eddie Alvarez. That's not even mentioning Conor McGregor's potential star-making bout and a rough-and-tumble middleweight scrap between Tim Kennedy and Yoel Romero.
So, who's going to come away victorious in all of these excellent fights? We'll channel our inner Miss Cleo and try to come up with some answers below.
Demetrious Johnson vs. Chris Cariaso
Demetrious Johnson is a small guy, but a massive favorite over Chris Cariaso on Saturday.
Outside of Cariaso himself (and maybe coaches and family), there are very few people out there who think he can beat Johnson. Most pundits didn't even believe Cariaso should have earned a title shot in the first place and, well, they make a good point. Cariaso has losses to Jussier Formiga and John Moraga, two guys ahead of him in the rankings. And other flyweights, like Ian McCall and John Lineker, have been more impressive overall.
But this is MMA, after all. Anyone who steps into the cage with those four-ounce gloves has a chance to knock his opponent out. Cariaso is pretty athletic, has solid power and good striking. Whether or not he can actually catch up to Johnson is up for debate. Physically speaking, Johnson has the advantage everywhere with the exception of reach -- and that's by a half-inch.
"Mighty Mouse" is almost a 14-to-1 favorite for a reason. He's one of the best fighters in the world regardless of weight class and everyone else in the division would be a massive underdog to him. The way he has refined his skills over the years, especially his wrestling and ability to change levels, is extremely impressive. We may not have even seen the best of him yet, which is a scary proposition. Johnson should hold the belt for a long time.
Prediction: Johnson by second-round submission
Donald Cerrone vs. Eddie Alvarez
We know a whole lot more about Donald Cerrone than we do about Eddie Alvarez.
This might be one of the toughest bouts to predict in UFC history. We know Alvarez is excellent and a top lightweight in the world. But how good is he compared to the UFC elite? We just don't know. Cerrone has fought the best guys on Earth, so we pretty much have an idea of what we're getting. Alvarez, in some ways, is an unknown.
On paper, Cerrone has better Muay Thai, while Alvarez is more of a boxer -- a very technical one at that. Alvarez is probably a little better wrestler, but "Cowboy" is underrated off his back. This one is likely to stay standing, where anything could really happen, because both men tend to get dropped often. Maybe this is the safe pick, because of his history in the UFC and WEC, but Cerrone has more ways to win standing. He's the pick, though it isn't a confident one.
Prediction: Cerrone by second-round TKO
Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor
Conor McGregor is en route to becoming a star. Is Dustin Poirier the latest victim?
If you ask McGregor or Poirier, they're both sure this one won't go past the first round. Of course, they both have different views on who will win. McGregor has emerged as the best talker in the UFC with Chael Sonnen's retirement. That means nothing once he gets in the Octagon, though. He'll have to back it up and that won't be an easy task -- Poirier is by far his toughest opponent, whether he wants to admit it or not.
Poirier is no jabroni. He's only 25 years old and maybe not in his prime yet. The American Top Team product will be better than the last time we saw him. McGregor will be better, too. This is a battle between two of the best featherweights in the world. Anyone counting out Poirier because of an iffy chin (he does get dropped often) is off base. This won't be an easy fight for McGregor. It'll go the distance. But in the end, it'll be the Irishman earning the victory.
Prediction: McGregor by unanimous decision
Tim Kennedy vs. Yoel Romero
Yoel Romero is a pretty scary dude.
This is a battle between two of the strongest, well-conditioned and most rugged middleweights in the UFC. Both are extremely good at imposing their will on their opponent with wrestling. Obviously, Romero will have a huge advantage in that aspect against Kennedy, though. Romero is a former Olympic silver medalist in wrestling and one of the most decorated wrestlers in UFC history.
The funny thing about the Cuba native is that he doesn't use his wrestling all that often. He loves to stand and trade and he has serious power in his fists. Kennedy does, too. Just ask Rafael Natal. But Romero is a little faster and athletic. He's also extremely unpredictable. It's hard to game plan for a guy like that. As good as Kennedy is, it just seems like Romero has more paths to victory standing and in the wrestling game. But it'll be tight.
Prediction: Romero by unanimous decision
Cat Zingano vs. Amanda Nunes
Cat Zingano is making her return to the UFC after more than a year away.
On a card with so many fights difficult to call, this is right up there among them. Yeah, Zingano is almost a 3-to-1 favorite and when it comes to résumé, she has clearly been the better fighter historically. But after being away for more than a year and dealing with the tragic suicide of her husband, it would be more than understandable if Zingano isn't quite herself in this first fight back. There's a reason why the UFC isn't giving her a title shot right off the back even though she's the No. 1 contender.
Nunes is no slouch, either. When she's at her best, she comes forward and looks to end things quickly. She's super aggressive and has power in her hands. Zingano is far and away a better technical striker, so Nunes coming ahead haphazardly might work to Zingano's counter-striking advantage. Zingano is also underrated on the ground if Nunes looks to take things there. Despite the outside stuff, Zingano still has more ways to win. She's the pick, but Nunes is the definition of a live underdog.
Prediction: Zingano by unanimous decision
Cruz control
The future of the bantamweight division will forever be altered by the result of the fight between Dominick Cruz and Takeya Mizugaki on the prelims Saturday. With a win, Cruz, the former champion, will be right back in the title mix with champ T.J. Dillashaw and Renan Barao. With a loss, who knows? Cruz has been out for three years. The fact that he's even fighting at all right now is incredible. Mizugaki is a very good bantamweight, but Cruz, at his best, is too quick and his footwork too good. Mizugaki can be plodding, especially for a 135-pounder. A Cruz unanimous decision is a solid bet.
'Game' on
Want a sleeper pick for Fight of the Night? How about Jorge Masvidal vs. James Krause? Both are pretty adept at earning those bonuses and, oh yeah, they're quite good at fighting, too. Masvidal is the higher-ranked guy -- Krause is not in the top 15 at all -- but Krause comes in with a solid height and reach advantage. That might give Masvidal fits standing, but we've seen "Gamebred" take things to the ground, like in his win over Daron Cruickshank. That might be his path to victory again Saturday. Masvidal is pretty good at finding those and probably will against Krause.
To make sure you catch everything this weekend, check out our UFC 178: Johnson vs. Cariaso schedule and viewing guide
