FIFA Men's World Cup

World Cup 2022: State of El Tri heading into match vs. USMNT

Updated Feb. 18, 2022 4:16 p.m. ET

By Doug McIntyre
FOX Sports Soccer Writer

In their heart of hearts, fans of El Tri — Mexico’s revered national soccer team — don’t fear for a second the possibility of their heroes missing out on the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar.

Why would they?

Mexico has been at or near the top of the CONCACAF region for the better part of a century. Not only have they qualified for seven consecutive World Cups since 1994, but they’ve also advanced to the round of 16 in every single one of them (more on that later).

So, no, El Tri supporters aren’t worried about getting there. Not even with Tata Martino’s team occupying the third and final automatic qualification spot with three matches still to play in the eight-team "Octagonal" double round robin. Not even with a visit from the archrival United States set for March 24.

Despite three straight competitive losses to the U.S. — including in their first 2022 World Cup qualifying meeting in November — Mexico are the heavy favorites at Estadio Azteca. El Tri’s all-time home record against the Americans in qualifying games is a gaudy 13W-0L-3T.

And in the unlikely event that El Tri lose to the USMNT in March, Mexico’s final two qualifiers are against Honduras and El Salvador, which sit eighth and sixth in the standings. There are no guarantees, but barring something extraordinary, Mexico are well-positioned to qualify.

The big question, as always, is what happens once they get there? Actually, it’s even more specific than that. In seven straight World Cups, Mexico have advanced to the knockout stage. And seven straight times, they’ve lost that round-of-16 contest.

It’s a remarkable statistic. Some even call it a curse. Either way, it’s a streak die-hard and casual El Tri backers alike are desperate to see come to an end.

"It’s kind of like the Mexican national team stigma," said Rodolfo Landeros of FOX Deportes, who has extensive experience covering El Tri. "Ever since 1986, we haven’t been to that fifth match. And that was obviously on home soil."

Based on the team’s unconvincing performances in qualifying thus far, the curse doesn’t seem likely to end in 2022. And while it’s true that there isn’t always a correlation between how a team plays on the way to the main event and how it fares on the biggest stage, Mexico just aren't inspiring much confidence right now.

That’s true even at the vaunted Azteca, where, at an altitude of 7,200 feet, the hosts have lost just two World Cup qualifiers ever. Still, they have seven ties to match their seven wins at home in CONCACAF qualifying over the past three cycles.

Last month, veteran El Tri midfielder Hector Herrera seemed to acknowledge that whatever advantage Mexico used to have at the Azteca is gone.

"The Azteca is big and imposing, yes," Herrera said of the famous venue, which was the first to host two World Cup finals. "But the atmosphere is not so strong."

There are several reasons for that. Ticket prices have risen, driving out some of the more vocal supporters. Recent renovations have decreased seating capacity and increased the number of luxury boxes. Mexico’s federation used to schedule qualifiers at high noon, under a blazing sun, but in recent years has switched to more TV-friendly night games.

And fairly or not, fans in the capital have a reputation of being the fair-weather variety, compared to their counterparts in Guadalajara and Monterrey. It’s not uncommon for those in attendance at the Azteca to turn on their own team’s players mid-match if they’re struggling.

What’s more, El Tri haven’t scored from the run of play in their past two home matches. Earlier this month, they needed a late (and soft) penalty kick from Raul Jimenez to top fourth-place Panama.

Throughout the Octagonal, Martino has mostly stuck with an aging roster. Herrera is 31. Captain Andres Guardado is 35.

"They’re talented players, but you can see they’re not the same as they were four years ago," Landeros said.

Despite Mexico’s under-23 men winning the bronze medal at last summer’s Olympics, the former Argentina and Barcelona manager has been slow to promote younger players such as Johan Vasquez, Alexis Vega and Erick Gutierrez to bigger roles within the senior squad. Gutierrez hasn’t played even a minute in qualifying.

"Obviously, Tata Martino has his reasons, but I think it’s a missed opportunity," Landeros said. "He’s more of an old-school manager. I don’t think he likes to take risks, but right now is the time to. If you keep things the same, I can’t see Mexico playing any better come the World Cup."

Still, barring defeat against the U.S. next month, Martino’s job appears safe as long as Mexico officially book their trip to Qatar. Landeros, for one, isn’t looking much beyond that.

"If Mexico qualifies, and I think they will, we still don’t know the draw," he said. "What teams are we going to face? Playing like this, they might not get out of the first round."

One of the most prominent soccer journalists in North America, Doug McIntyre has covered United States men’s and women’s national teams in more than a dozen countries, including multiple FIFA World Cups. Before joining FOX Sports, the New York City native was a staff writer for Yahoo Sports and ESPN. Follow him on Twitter @ByDougMcIntyre.