Manchester Derby: Crucial importance of the first goal
One of the most anticipated Manchester Derbies in recent years kicks-off the Premier League’s return to action this weekend following the international break.
There will be many factors that play into the eventual outcome at Old Trafford on Saturday afternoon local time but perhaps none more so that scoring the opening goal.
Your Saturday morning pundits will no doubt spout on about the importance of a quick start at the Theater of Dreams.
They won’t be wrong, but they might not know just how right they are.
The statistical advantage of scoring first in the Derby in the Premier League era is remarkable.
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The team that scores first in the Manchester Derby has only lost twice in the Premier League era.
Recently City lost 4-2 at Old Trafford after Sergio Aguero, missing this weekend through suspension, gave them early the advantage in April 2015. United hit back with four in succession.
Before this you have to go back to November 1993 for the last time a Manchester side scored first in a league Derby then went on to lose. City led 2-0 through two Niall Quinn goals before an Eric Cantona brace and a late Roy Keane winner secured a dramatic 3-2 win for the Red Devils.
Of the 35 league Derbies since United have gone on to win after scoring the opening goal 17 times. That United have opened the scoring and gone on to win the game 48% of the time is perhaps a marker of their dominance over City, and indeed the Premier League, in that span.
Scoring first will be essential for City, who have won three of the last five league Derbies at Old Trafford having done just that. This after having gone from 1974 to 2008 without any league wins at the home of their rivals.
An opening goal generally means a result also. There have been just three 0-0 Derbies in the Premier League era.
Since that Roy Keane winner in late 1993, there have been just three score draws, all at Old Trafford, in the Manchester Derby.
Put another way, whoever scores first has won 28 of the 32 games where there has been a goal.
Those looking for a guide as to how that may translate to this weekend may take note of the fact that the website oddschecker have Zlatan Ibrahimovic as the consensus pick for first scorer.
The absence of Aguero is potentially crippling for City as he has opened the scoring for them in two of their three league games so far, although both were penalties.
Oddschecker lists three United players favored by the oddsmakers among the top four – Ibra, Wayne Rooney and Marcus Rashford.
Kelechi Iheanacho is considered the man most likely for City among the bookmakers.
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