In at least one U.S. city, this week's walk-up to college
basketball's Final Four hasn't provoked debate regarding the potential for
top-ranked Kentucky to knock off Louisville.
And this particular market doesn't seem that interested in how the Wildcats
would fare against Ohio State. Or Kansas.
In Washington, D.C., the prevailing Kentucky discourse is propelled by the
conjured notion that the No. 1 seed in college hoops could knock off the NBA
Wizards. For the record (and for now), the 11-38 Wizards still officially
qualify as an NBA franchise.
Anyway, escorted into that city's topical wheelhouse by two radio sports-talk
hosts, this idea gained traction when former University of Maryland coach Gary
Williams said it could happen.
Well, with a specific caveat.
This hypothetical showdown would occur at UK's Rupp Arena, allowing us to
assume the Wizards would be playing by house rules. And it would only be one
game. While providing the reasons behind his argument on the D.C.-area radio
show in question, Williams used variables such as the rabid home crowd,
Kentucky's starting lineup of five NBA prospects and its athleticism to support
the position.
To widen the scope of opinion, I was requested to supply knowledge from two NBA
employees who make their bones scouting college prospects. Because they've been
asked to discuss players who haven't declared for the draft, these NBA experts
will remain anonymous.
By the way, both of their immediate reactions suggested the caliber of startled
amusement that often triggers the spewing of a carbonated beverage through
nostrils. When these physical responses finally were under control, they
offered insights built on years of experience with both levels of basketball.
"They're an NBA team ... a dysfunctional NBA team," the scout we'll
refer to as Scout A said of the Wizards, "but an NBA team. I think it
would be a 40- or 50-point game.
"I really like Kentucky's team, and they do have players who will be
playing in the NBA ... just not now."
Right, the 'Cats — who go seven deep — are led in NBA potential by freshman
post man Anthony Davis and freshman Swiss Army Knife small forward Michael
Kidd-Gilchrist. They're joined on the front line by sophomore forward Terrence
Jones, a versatile lefty with lottery ability and second-round inconsistency.
The backcourt features sophomore sniper Doron Lamb (who also can drive to the
cup) and quick freshman point guard Marquis (brother of Atlanta Hawk Jeff)
Teague. The sixth man is senior Darius Miller, who had eight turnovers (Teague
and Lamb each had four) against the Louisville pressure last Dec. 31.
"They would be playing against grown men who play against the best players
in the world," Scout A said. "I don't think some people appreciate
the difference."
Yeah, it's compelling to imagine how Davis, for example, might go from the
first pick in the 2012 draft (if he chooses to leave Lexington) to a
contributor — surrounded by grown-up players with NBA experience — in a few
months' time. But projecting five such prospects against an NBA team and
expecting triumph seems like an extended flight of fancy.
One of the first schematic considerations is the Wildcats' ability to do what
they do best against any NBA team. That would be defense, where UK excels in
stopping dribble penetration, contesting shots and using pressure to create
turnovers.
"Would they (Kentucky) extend their defense against an NBA team?" Scout
A asked in reference to Kentucky's pressure tactics. "How many NBA teams
can get away with pressing or trapping NBA players? NBA guys know how to play
basketball ... they'd find the middle immediately and the trap would be
dead."
By the way, the Wizards' point guard is former UK superstar John Wall, who left
the 'Cats after his freshman season to be the first overall pick in the 2010
NBA Draft. Recent Wizards acquisition Nene (a former lottery pick from Brazil)
would be matched with Davis on the block, where the 6-foot-11, 260-pound pro
would be working closer to the rim than usual. The college lane is 12 feet wide
(compared to 16 in the NBA), leaving less space between the thin upper body of
the 6-10 Davis and the hoop at Rupp Arena.
"He (Nene) would just take Davis right under the rim and use his strength
to take away Davis' ability to elevate," Scout A said.
A Kentucky team that's patient beyond its years might be able to massage the
35-second shot clock to find an eventual hole in a Wizards defense that rarely
locks in during NBA games. The rules-enabled ability to clog the lane (well,
play zone) without a defensive-three-second penalty would aid in slightly
limiting what still could be frequent dribble penetration by Wall. On the flip
side, NBA defenders would love the paint-loitering latitude of the college
format, making trips to the lane even more difficult for the
already-decision-impaired Teague.
With a 3-point line that's 3 feet closer, Wizards Jordan Crawford and
Rashard Lewis (if he's awake) might have an enjoyable evening. A 40-minute game
would lessen Kentucky's depth concerns, but having only five fouls per player would be
troublesome for a front line battling physical players such as Nene, Trevor
Booker and Kevin Seraphin.
Entering, but not signing in, is Scout B, who will offer his tale of the
starting-lineup tape.
"I really like where Davis is now and what he can become," Scout B
said. "But at Kentucky, he's the primary rebounder and rim protector. His
value as an NBA prospect is as a four-man who can use his length and agility
all over the court while whoever is at the five (center) does the dirty work,
provides the muscle, in the middle.
"Against the Wizards, Davis would have to be that dirty-work guy against
Nene. Davis might be like 'The Karate Kid' in battling the odds, but Nene is
like taking on ... Godzilla instead of that jerky blond kid from the movie.
Nene is a physical nightmare compared to what Davis sees night in and night out
in college. Jones might be able to help out, but he'd have his own issues
dealing with Booker or Seraphin or chasing Rashard Lewis at the 3-point line.
See? The Wizards could just wear those two down."
OK, let's move to the matchup of Jones and Booker (please note that recent
trades and the aforementioned dysfunction make it difficult to nail down a
Wizards lineup).
"Jones can do more things with the basketball, but that often gets him
into trouble," Scout B said. "If Jones has the light bulb go on ...
and it seems to be getting close ... he could be much better down the road. But
right now? Trevor Booker was a beast in the ACC and works his butt off now.
Jones might get physically demoralized before he even knew what hit him. I
don't know ... maybe Kentucky could be saved from a physical beating by college
refs."
We move to small forward, where Kidd-Gilchrist would be matched with 2011
Wizards first-round pick Chris Singleton.
"Heck, we all love Kidd-Gilchrist and how hard he plays and so on,"
Scout B said. "But Singleton was All-ACC defense for two years and has the
length and quickness to make it a long night for the college guy. Singleton has
had to guard guys like LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony.
"Kidd-Gilchrist could go top five this year and has more of the dreaded
upside, but for one night, he'd seem like a vacation to Singleton. But the
Kentucky kids would have no physical reference point for taking on an engaged
NBA team for one night. They'll all adjust as they get into the league, but for
right now?
"We are assuming that the Wizards would be clued in to who they were
playing and how extra foolish they would look for losing to a college team,
right? So they would bring it."
That seems to be a reasonable assumption ... even for the Wizards. Now, on to
the shooting guards.
"Doron Lamb, to me, is a really good college player, who — based on size
and explosion — may only be a fringe NBA player," Scout B said.
"(Wizards two guard) Jordan Crawford may be a guy who scores because he
gets to shoot a lot on a bad team, but he's still doing it against NBA guys.
He's pretty talented, and he's relentless."
We pretty much know what Scout B thinks about the point-guard situation.
"Let's just say Teague — who's a blur himself — would find out about life
in the NBA in a big hurry.
"I guess you can tell I'd take the Wiz in a rout. But if they were forced
to play (Andray) Blatche ..."
