WhatIfSports ALDS prediction: Blue Jays vs. Rangers

BY foxsports • October 5, 2016

WhatIfSports simulated the 2016 American League Divisional Series matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Texas Rangers to predict which team will advance to the ALCS. The entire series was simulated 101 times.  Check out how each team fared:

Blue Jays vs. Rangers: 101 Simulations of Best-of-5 Series
Matchup Win % 3 Games % 4 Games % 5 Games %
Blue Jays 39.6 14.9 14.9 9.9
Rangers 60.4 19.8 24.8 15.8

MORE PREDICTIONS: Dodgers vs. Nationals | Giants vs. Cubs | Red Sox vs. Indians 

The Rangers advance to the ALCS 60.4 percent of the time, according to the simulation. Most of the time, Texas got it done in four games (24.8 percent). However, in 25.7 percent of the simulations, the series went to Game 5 with Texas winning the rubber match 62 percent of the time in those showdowns.

If Toronto expects to advance, the simulation suggests the Blue Jays need to get it done in the first four games. Toronto was most successful in three- and four-game series (14.9 percent each).

Adrian Beltre paced the Rangers with a .296 AVG, while the Blue Jays were led by Devon Travis's .313 AVG. As for the long ball, Jonathon Lucroy of the Rangers crushed it out of the park an average of 1.03 times per series. After scoring the winning home run in the Wild Card game, Edwin Encarnacion's power carried over into the simulation. Encarnacion took Polly for a stroll around the bases 1.02 times per series.

With two hitter-friendly stadiums in Toronto's Rogers Centre and Arlington's Globe Life Park, pitchers struggled somewhat in the simulation. Texas' Game 1 starter, Cole Hamels, was saddled with a 5.51 ERA. The best hurler for the Rangers was Colby Lewis. He produced a 3.44 ERA and led the club in wins.

Interested in simulating the game yourself? Try MLB SimMatchup. Or, create your own Dream Team of current and historical players to challenge your favorite club.

share story