Here is what we have learned from a year of repeatedly analyzing three dozen or so mock drafts:
EVERYONE LOVES TRENT: Fans and Mock Drafters have coalesced on Trent Richardson as the Browns pick at #4 at about the same time. Richardson passed Mo Claiborne in mid-March and hasn't looked back. For all the buzz he got as a potential Cleveland Browns draft pick, Justin Blackmon was never more than the third or fourth most popular pick for the Browns in the Mock Drafts, never getting more that four of the three dozen mock drafts to predict that he would be taken by the Browns.
REMARKABLE AGREEMENT AT #22 & #37 AS WELL: As we get later in the draft, it generally becomes harder for a consensus pick to emerge among the mock drafts. Not so with the Browns - at #22, mock drafters selected Kendall Wright three times more than any other player, and the same for Brandon Weeden at #37. Apparently Tom Heckert should avoid the poker table.
THE VIKINGS ARE WINNING SOME CONVERTS: The Vikes are trying to sell the #3 pick like nobody's business, and in doing so, are tweaking the mock drafts. The proof? After sitting right at the three spot for weeks, Matt Kalil's average draft position is dropping ever so slightly in the days before the draft.
THIS IS YOUR AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION ON DOPE. ANY QUESTIONS? In the days and weeks following reports that OSU OT Mike Adams tested positive for marijuana, his average draft position has steadily risen, from #18 to #31. The second round beckons.
THE MOCK DRAFTERS HAVE FIGURED OUT ABOUT MICHEAL FLOYD: Cleveland Browns GM Tom Heckert recently told reporters that most draft boards tend to stay the same following the college football season. Why, then, to players "rise" and "fall" so dramatically before the draft? One assumes it's because the "draft experts" are slowly catching up to how the teams rate players. If that's the case, then Michael Floyd may wind up going pretty early - his average draft position has been steadily dropping for two months.
THERE'S NO REAL CONSENSUS ON WHAT THE BENGALS WILL DO: There's some enthusiasm for Dre Kirkpatrick at #17 among the mock drafters, but at #21 it's anyone's pick. CB Janoris Jenkins and Mark Barron are selected by four of the mock drafts apiece.
SOME PLAYERS JUST CONFUSE MOCK DRAFTERS: A number of players are selected in the top ten in some mock drafts, while not getting selected until the second round in others. Examples are Ryan Tannehill (earliest 4, latest 41), Melvin Ingram (7,35), Fletcher Cox (6,50), Stephon Gilmore (10,62), Courtney Upshaw (10, 45), and Jonathan Martin (8,58). Rock steady first-round picks include David Decastro (9,20), Dre Kirkpatrick (5,25) and Kendall Wright (10,32).
THE DRAFT SIMULATION PREDICTS A MASSIVE WR SLIDE: The draft simulation takes the top player selected in each mock draft and wipes out duplicates, going to second and third most popular choices at any position until a pick is available. Interestingly, WR Michael Floyd isn't the top pick at any mock draft position. So he falls to the Browns at #22. Further indicating that WRs will slide (according to the mock drafts), Kendall Wright lasts until pick 34 and Reuben Randle lasts until 35. Stephen Hill, oddly, goes at 26.
If this sounds absurd to you, just remember: We don't write the mocks, we just munch 'em.
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