IRVING - The second round in the past 10 NFL Drafts have given us 186 "hits" out of a total of 319 picks. Do the calculation: Your team will be able to secure an immediate starter in the second round 58.3 percent of the time.
Let's break it down further: How about "hits" and percentages by position?
Our study (done with the Dallas Cowboys' thoughts on trading down from No. 18 to possibly secure a total of three second-round picks) defines a : "hit" as a draftee who played at least significantly as a rookie/started in at least a few games his rookie year and then went on to be really productive and a solid starter.
•We've covered offensive linemen: An average of 5.7 offensive lineman are drafted in Round 2 over the last decade. Of the 57 draftees, 47 are "hits." That means a positional high of 82.4 percent of them are "hits."
•On average, one quarterback is taken in the second. Two of the last 11 QBs taken have been "hits." And just one of them (TCU/Bengals QB Andy Dalton) has become a Pro Bowler.
•On average, 2.6 running backs are taken. Of the 26 runners chosen, just five became immediate impact players (19.2 percent). And all five of them have also made the Pro Bowl. (Running backs, therefore, seem to be as "hit-and-miss" as QBs.)
•On average, five wide receivers are selected in Round 2. Of those 50 players, 21 of them are "hits" (42 percent).
•At tight end, there have been 16 players chosen in Round 2. Nine of them became "hits" (56.25 percent). But just one has become a Pro Bowler.
Now to the defensive side of the ball, with a qualifier: Some defensive ends become outside linebackers or defensive tackles. Some defensive tackles become ends. Still, a guidepost by position:
•Second-round defensive ends "hits": eight of the 33 guys (24.2 percent).
•Defensive tackles: 4 of 18 (22.2 percent).
•Outside linebackers: 11 of 23 "hits" (47.8 percent).
•Middle linebackers: 19 of 27 (70.37 percent).
•Safety: 26 of 36 (72.2 percent).
•Cornerback: 19 of 33 (57.57 percent).
Obviously, the percentages alone aren't enough. But you can see the hit-and-miss nature of some positions. You can see the benefits of building an O-line in the second round. And you can see that if your team isn't able to secure an immediate starter in the second round 58.3 percent of the time, it is more likely to end up trailing the competition.
