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Let's get to Saturday's interesting facts, using DraftKings prices.
Five Things to Watch:
1. 1 Here are the three highest projected over/unders, provided by OddsShark...
2. Weather: Everything looks clear for Saturday.
3. You down with BvP? Edwin Encarnacion is 12-for-32 against Rick Porcello lifetime with 3 HR. Justin Smoak is 7-for-18 with 3 HR against Rick Porcello. Seth Smith is 6-for-17 with a homer against Phil Hughes. Jonathan Lucroy is 7-for-12 with 2 HR against Alfredo Simon.
4. Your three biggest pitching favorites for the day: Kyle Hendricks against Philadelphia (-245), Zack Greinke against San Diego (-205) and Noah Syndergaard against the Dodgers (-165).
5. Sneaky stack options: The Brewers and Reds both qualify as sneaky stacks in a game with a projected run total of 9.5, but Arizona at home against Cesar Vargas is a play that won't be highly used and could bring back big rewards.
Yesterday's recap:
Adam Meyer's stack of the day, the Brewers, scored 9 runs in a convincing win. Chris Archer also brought solid value with 8 IP and 7 strikeouts despite catching the L. Let's move on to Saturday's picks.
Must-Start of the day: Wade Miley, SEA
Minnesota is 29th in the league in OPS against lefties this season, and Miley has been consistently solid this year. With good run support behind him against a struggling Phil Hughes, he's in good shape for a win.
Deal of the day: Danny Valencia, OAK
.326 career average against LHP over the last three seasons and Matt Boyd is a pitcher we can pick on. Good value at just $3500.
Avoid of the day: Evan Longoria, TB
He's just 3-for-22 lifetime against Michael Pineda.
Stack of the day: Milwaukee Brewers
We're going back to the well again after yesterday's payoff, as the Brewers are big favorites (-151) at home against one of the worst pitchers in baseball in Alfredo Simon, who has a four-digit ERA.
Starting pitchers:
Wade Miley, SEA: "Must-start of the day"
Danny Salazar, CLE: Baltimore's bats are prone to strikeouts, and Salazar racks them up at a high rate. He has 67 K's in 54 innings pitched this year, and he's a solid favorite at home against Jimenez.
Adam Wainwright, STL: It's risky, but Wainwright has been significantly better in his last few starts. So long as he can pitch around Bryce Harper, he's a good value at just $6000.
Catchers:
Jonathan Lucroy, MIL: He's 7-for-12 with 2 HR against Alfredo Simon.
Jason Castro, HOU: 5-for-20 with 2 HR against Jered Weaver.
First basemen:
Edwin Encarnacion, TOR: He's 12-for-32 against Rick Porcello lifetime with 3 HR.
Prince Fielder, TEX: Juan Nicasio gets rocked by lefties, and Fielder is just $3700.
Second basemen:
Rougned Odor, TEX: Another lefty to play against Nicasio.
Ben Zobrist, CHC: Hitting .425 in the last ten games.
Third basemen:
Danny Valencia, OAK: "Deal of the day"
Josh Donaldson, TOR: Good value at just $4200 for one of the best pitchers in the league.
Shortstops:
Jonathan Villar, MIL: Good time to target Alfredo Simon, who has an ERA over 10.
Carlos Correa, HOU: Soft-tossing Weaver gets a hitter bound to turn it around.
Outfielders:
Stephen Piscotty, STL: .322 career average against LHP.
Lorenzo Cain, KC: .302 average against southpaws over the last three seasons.
Nomar Mazara, TEX: Another lefty to throw at Nicasio.
