2016 Washington Nationals Preview & Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep
The Nats were a huge disappointment in 2015, but Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer were fantasy superstars. Is Harper worthy of the No. 1 overall pick?
(Note: When a player's fantasy draft status is mentioned - e.g., "he's an SP4" - the number is based on 12-team mixed leagues. ADP references are from NFBC drafts.)
ALSO SEE: TEAM PREVIEWS ARCHIVE
Key additions: 2B Daniel Murphy, OF Ben Revere
Key losses: SS Ian Desmond, SP Doug Fister, OF Denard Span, RP Drew Storen, SP Jordan Zimmermann
Projected Lineup
Revere stole 31 bases in 2015 after swiping 49 the season before. He'll hit close to .300 and score plenty of runs if he indeed bats leadoff, but he'll need to be on the high end of the steal range to earn an ADP close to OF30. You'd think Dusty Baker will let him run quite a bit ... Rendon's season was an injury-plagued disaster after some drafted him in the first round last spring. He's being drafted in the sixth round as the fifth-ranked second baseman, but he's also eligible at 3B. Rendon should hit better, but we should worry that his knee issues have affected his on-base speed ... Harper is a beast, a stud, a monster. Take him as a top-three player, in the mix with Trout and Goldschmidt. We've got him at No. 2 overall behind Trout ... At 31, Zimmerman has trouble staying in the lineup. His power looks to be in the 20-25 homer range, and his BA has traditionally been good. Health questions have Zimmerman as a late-round pick ... Murphy is a .288 career hitter who has averaged a dozen homers over the last three seasons. However, he stopped running last year, and it's fair to wonder if he's being overrated at an ADP of 2B12 due to his postseason power barrage ... Werth will turn 37 in June, and batted just .221 last season. His K rate went up, his BB rate went down, and it's difficult to see drafting him in standard mixed leagues ... Espinosa hits lefties well, but he always has a terrible BA and is basically a placeholder for rookie Trea Turner (if Turner doesn't win the job in spring training) ... Ramos' K rate rose and his BA sunk to .229, but he'd never been below .265 in four previous seasons, to there's reason to believe in a rebound for a guy who might give you 20 homers in Round 20 ... Speedy, powerful and whiff-tastic OF Michael Taylor looms as a potential injury replacement or maybe more if someone (Werth?) doesn't perform. But since he's waiting in line for playing time, he shouldn't be drafted beyond NL-only leagues.
Projected Rotation
CL: Jonathan Papelbon
Scherzer is the No. 2 starter behind Clayton Kershaw, and should have another big season ... Glass half full: Strasburg's FIP was a career-best 2.81 last season. Glass half empty: He's averaged 27 3/4 starts since 2012, and threw 127 1/3 innings last season. That's not terrible, but do you want to invest a fourth-round pick - his early ADP - on a starter who tends to miss time? ... Gio gets his whiffs and keeps the ball in the park, but walks help to make him mediocre. He's a solid SP4 who's being drafted lower than that ... Roark is a soft tosser who's likely to have an ERA above 4.00. Nope ... Ross is a trendy late-round pick after impressing during the second half of 2015. He's fine to begin the season as your SP5, but if the hype train starts rolling faster, pass ... Papelbon has the job to himself after Storen's trade to Toronto. He's getting by on control more than stuff at this point, but he'll need to fall on his face to get replaced.
Sleeper: Ramos was a top-12 catcher before last season, and is being ignored. He beats the ball into the ground too much, but I still think there's a 20-homer season in him.
Top Prospects
Lucas Giolito, SP - The 21-year-old Giolito is probably baseball's best pitching prospect, and if he cruises through the minors again, he could be in D.C. by midseason. Stuff, control, command - he's the whole package, dynasty leaguers.
Trea Turner, SS - Dusty Baker said last month that Turner might not be ready to start, but during spring training the Nats might say, "Bench him for Danny Espinosa? No, thanks." Turner should overtake Danny Espinosa at some point, and when he does he's got the skills to steal plenty of bases. However, if he bats eighth this season, it'll hurt his opportunity to do that.
