2016 Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Top 10 Predictions
The 2016 Fantasy Baseball season is right around the corner, and it's time to start prepping for your fantasy draft now. Here are ten bold predictions to get you started:
1. A.J. Pollock will lead all hitters in fantasy points
Let's get crazy right out of the gate.
Bryce Harper was the fantasy king last year, and Mike Trout will be the first pick off the board in a lot of drafts, but I'll take Pollock to be the most productive fantasy hitter when it's all said and done.
Before you fire up those torches and grab your pitchforks, keep in mind that Pollock finished 7th last year in total fantasy points, despite entering the year with roughly 800 career ML at-bats. His OPS+ was actually worse in 2015 than it was in 2014, so it's reasonable to assume that there's room for growth and that last year wasn't a fluke by any means.
Batting in front of super stud Paul Goldschmidt will allow Pollock to keep seeing good pitches, and teams will happily let him run loose on the basepaths (39 SB last year) if that means opening up a base to walk Goldy. Playing in one of the league's biggest hitter's parks doesn't hurt, either.
Not that I wouldn't be happy with studs like Trout and Harper, but Pollock's production seems a little more likely to be on the upswing, as he's not coming off a massive career-year or being restricted on the basepaths. A potential 25 HR, 40 SB year type player with everyday durability is going to be tough to find. I'm expecting huge production across the board from Pollock this season.
2. The Blue Jays will score over 1,000 runs
The last team to score over 1,000 runs was the 1999 Cleveland Indians. That was a, ahem, juicier era, but the Blue Jays could give the Indians a run for their money regardless.
Reaching that plateau will likely depend on which version of Troy Tulowitzki shows up, and whether he can stay somewhat healthy. But with Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion in the middle of the lineup playing in the best hitter's park in the AL, the Blue Jays are going to be dynamic offensively either way.
The Jays scored 891 runs last year, so it's at least feasible. If some of the contributions from role players like Chris Colabello and Kevin Pillar come again and if Tulo can revert back to his career averages and produce much more than a .700-ish OPS like he and Jose Reyes did last year, watch out.
3. Clayton Kershaw won't score 700+ fantasy points again
He'll still be awesome, because he's Clayton Kershaw. But 301 strikeouts is probably a little too much to ask for again, and with the emergence of other aces around the league, it's unlikely he'll outscore the third best fantasy pitcher by 100 points like he did last year.
Kershaw should still be the first pitcher off the board, but don't be surprised if some other aces keep it close this year.
4. Adrian Beltre will finally drop out of the top-5 third basemen
Adrian Beltre has been a fantasy stud for, oh, the last 15 years? If you've played fantasy baseball even somewhat regularly in that timeframe, chances are you've owned him at some point and enjoyed watching him slug homers and avoid head pats like the plague.
Beltre still miraculously turned in a top-5 season among third baseman last year in fantasy points, even in a down year. He'll turn 37 this season, though, and it might be a little too much to ask for him to register 550+ at-bats once again and have his power numbers spike back up.
It's not all about Beltre, though. A full season from young studs like Kris Bryant and Miguel Sano should push him down the list of hot corner sluggers. Time comes for us all.
5. Stephen Strasburg will disappoint
It doesn't seem that long ago when Stephen Strasburg looked destined to win multiple Cy Young awards. Major injuries have derailed that quest, and although Stras is still just 27, he's being drafted a little too high given his shaky past.
Strasburg only pitched 127 innings last year, but the 11.0 K/9 and 1.107 WHIP obviously have people excited for him to recapture his status as one of the league's top arms. It's just so difficult to trust him with all the injuries and the level of caution Washington's coaching staff will likely exercise with him, and the fact that he's a notorious slow starter is worrisome. Strasburg's career stats in the month of May are rather pedestrian: 8-7 record, 3.70 ERA.
It's hard to justify taking him over guys like Felix Hernandez, Chris Archer and Noah Syndergaard, but that's been happening quite a bit in early drafts. It's unlikely he'll return value on par with his top-50 ADP.
6. Buster Posey will be a steal once again
Positional scarcity is a big thing to consider in fantasy sports, but in baseball it can make or break your team. Posey once again looks primed to blow away every other catcher in fantasy points, just like he did last year when outscored the next closest catcher, Brian McCann, by a whopping 117 points.
If you're lucky, you might be able to snatch Posey in the third round, which is crazy value. While everyone else takes big hitting outfielders and first baseman, taking Posey and virtually locking in a major advantage over every other team at that position makes sense. You can find aces and surprise power suppliers later in your draft, but finding a big hitting catcher will be next to impossible.
7. I will not spend all my rent money playing daily fantasy
(I totally will.)
8. Billy Hamilton will steal over 70 bases
The last player to steal 70 bases? Jacoby Ellsbury in 2009.
Now, Billy Hamilton is no Ellsbury. He can't hit for beans, and he struggles to draw walks. But Hamilton is the fastest player in baseball right now, and he can help your fantasy team in a serious way.
Hamilton has had a brutal time getting on base since he joined the majors, but he still managed to steal 57 bases just 114 games last year. That's crazy.
If Hamilton can play something closer to 140 games, and bring up that .274 OBP of last year to even .300, he could reach 70 with shocking ease. He'll get the green light whenever he manages to get on base.
9. Corey Seager will easily win NL Rookie of the Year, but the AL race will be tight
Yes, Seager is still eligible. Yes, he's the heavy favorite. Yes, he should win it without breaking much of a sweat.
Seager is going to be an awfully popular pick in fantasy drafts, but for good reason. It can be tough to find quality hitters at SS, and Seager flashed some major skills in his 98 at-bats, hitting .337 and belting four homers while eventually occupying a spot at the top of the Dodgers lineup. He'll get on base a ton for a good offense, and he has 20 HR potential at a position where power is hard to find. There's a lot to like here.
The AL race should be tighter, but Minnesota Twins OF Byron Buxton is still eligible and should perform much better than he did in his stint last year. Buxton has 40+ SB potential and hit .301 in the minors, so he's more than just a pair of legs. The power might not come quite yet, but his plus defense and destruction on the basepaths should garner plenty of love from voters.
He may have to hold off Texas Rangers slugger Joey Gallo, who could find enough at-bats given Beltre's age and Josh Hamilton's injury history. Voters dig the long ball.
10. The Cubs will win the World Series
It's time.
