Why the New England Patriots won't win the Super Bowl


This NFL Sunday proved two things: 1) The New England Patriots are the best team in football; 2) The New England Patriots will not win the Super Bowl, and you can bet your cutoff hoodie and Microsoft Surface on it.
It's not a lineup thing, it's not a playbook thing, it's not a depth thing, it's not a coaching thing, it's not a scheme thing, it's not a bad-matchup thing, it's not an air pressure gauge thing and it's not a possibly not having Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson to hand them a ring thing. No, it's an undeniable pull of history thing.
The best team in the NFL rarely wins the Super Bowl anymore.
Since the turn of the century, there have been 16 full NFL seasons, and the best team finished its season with a loss in 15 of those years. Starting in 2015 and going backward, the top teams that didn't win it all: Carolina (2015), Seattle (2014), Denver (2013), Denver (2012), Green Bay (2011), New England (2010), Indianapolis (2009), Tennessee (2008), New England (2007), San Diego (2006), Indianapolis (2005), Pittsburgh (2004), Oakland (2002), St. Louis (2001) and Tennessee (2000).
We determined the best team by regular-season record. In the event of a tie, we looked at which team was favored to win before the playoffs and/or which team was favored in the Super Bowl. If that's too objective and puts too much onus on the sometimes arbitrary won-loss record, a subjective look at identifying the best team basically brings the same results. Either way, it doesn't pay to be tops.
Why? More than ever, the NFL playoffs are a free-for-all, 12 teams playing a one-and-down knockout tournament which, with the exception of two or three lackluster division winners, is essentially up for grabs between eight or nine teams. Once the divisional playoffs start, legit cases can usually be made for each of the eight teams still alive. Strong cases can be made for five or six. Once you get that far, going on a three-game winning streak is within any team's capability. Parity exists, and it does so in the playoffs more than anywhere. Case in point: The wild-card game started in 1978. For the first 20 seasons, one wild-card team won the Super Bowl. In the next 19 years, leading up to this season, five wild-card teams took home the Lombardi Trophy. Once you get in, it's wide open.
This is a far cry from saying that good teams don't win Super Bowls. Of course they do. The vast majority of winners are usually one of the four best teams in the NFL. But for some reason or another, history is working against whichever team finishes 2016 with the best record. New England has the best record at the moment and Sunday's win over Pittsburgh was an impressive victory indicative of the best team in the sport. The Pats didn't bring their best, or even good, play and were ripe for the picking on the road against an unfamiliar quarterback. They won by two scores.
These are obviously highly unscientific findings, unlike, say, Deflategate. Given the chance between being the best team in the NFL and not, everybody would choose the former. It's just an interesting stat that shows the craziness of the NFL and serves as a warning to anyone trying to look down the road. You don't have to tell this to a Pats fan; the memory of 2007 flickers so often it might as well be one of those Christmas lights in Stranger Things.
However, if you believe in superstition (cough, Boston, cough) and subscribe to stats, it's not all doom and gloom for the Patriots. The season isn't even half over -- there's plenty of time for New England to become the second- or third-best team. (Other than Seattle, I don't see another team that can challenge.) But more important, you'll recall we mentioned that 15 of the 16 Super Bowl winners this century haven't been the best team entering the playoffs. The one team that bucked the trend, started off the postseason as the favorite and ended it as the champions? The 2003 New England Patriots.




