There is a reason NASCAR’s top drivers have predicted that this year’s Chase for the Sprint Cup will be one of the closest ever.
Because they desperately hope it will be, and not just for their own selfish reasons.
Most don’t want to see NASCAR change the Chase format for the second time in five years, which NASCAR Chairman Brian France has hinted that he might do.
Though France has backed off those statements recently, the possibility – or threat – still lingers if the Chase is not as competitive as everyone hopes.
“I think that if we can go out and have a battle like it looks like we are going to have, then I think it will make a difference to if we change it,” Chase driver Carl Edwards says. “I think NASCAR is in a tough position PR-wise to change it now. If they don’t change it right away then it looks like it is a reaction to something that may happen in this Chase, which I don’t think they would do anyway.”
It has done it before, which is how the Chase was created to begin with.
The Chase was implemented in 2004, the year after Matt Kenseth cruised to the 2003 title, nearly clinching it early despite winning just one race. The Chase was supposed to make the championship race more exciting by creating a playoff that gives more drivers and teams a chance to win the championship.
In 2007, NASCAR shook things up again, expanding the field from 10 to 12 drivers and creating a seeding process based on bonus points for wins.
But after Jimmie Johnson has won four straight titles and dominated the past two playoff races, France and NASCAR officials have considered shaking it up again.
Among the changes being considered are another expansion, possibly from 12 to 15 teams; an elimination process under which some Chase drivers would be ousted from contention after a select number of races; and perhaps more bonus points for wins during the Chase.
If this year’s Chase is not as close and competitive as many predict, NASCAR could indeed react and make some changes.
Here are five scenarios that might make Brian France and NASCAR make a move:
1. Johnson wins again
Johnson’s first two Chase titles were close. He came from behind to win his first championship in 2006 and won a close battle with Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jeff Gordon in 2007.
But in the last two years, he has made a shambles of the Chase, thoroughly dominating in 2008 and pulling away in the last few races last year. Though his final margin in 2008 was 69 points over Carl Edwards, he led by 183 points after seven races and 141 going into the season finale. Last year, he beat teammate Mark Martin by 141 points.
Johnson and his Chad Knaus-led team seem to have mastered the art of preparing for the Chase, and then stepping up their performance during the final 10 races, as evident by their dominating performance this past Sunday at Dover International Speedway.
They also have been better than any team at overcoming adversity, wiping out poor finishes with multiple wins and pulling away with a late hot streak — like, say, overcoming a seemingly disastrous 25th-place finish in the first Chase race like they have this season.
Johnson’s dominance has had a profound impact on TV ratings and fan interest during the Chase. If he wins again, NASCAR likely will review the entire Chase system, looking for ways – like an elimination process – to make it more competitive and give drivers a chance against the sport’s most dominant driver.
2. Jeff Gordon wins the Chase without winning a race
That might be NASCAR’s greatest fear – that a driver wins the series championship without winning a single race.
Kenseth’s one-win championship in 2003 was a big reason the Chase was created. Now, ironically, two drivers have a decent chance of winning the title without winning a race.
Gordon is winless, but has been one of the circuit’s most consistent drivers all season, scoring 10 top-five and 14 top-10 finishes. He finished third in the standings during the regular season and got off to a good start in the Chase with a sixth-place finish at New Hampshire.
Edwards, too, is winless but also has been on a hot streak with eight top-10 finishes in his last 10 races and 10 straight top 12s.
Jeff Burton, winless with 13 top-10 finishes, also has an outside shot, as does winless Kenseth.
If any of them win the title without winning a race, expect NASCAR to blow up the Chase, likely adding significant bonus points for winning races.
3. Tony Stewart wins the title without winning a Chase race
Just as NASCAR officials do not want to see a driver win the Chase without a single victory, neither does it want to crown a champion that does not win during the Chase.
Winning races is what the sport is all about and NASCAR emphasized that point three years ago by creating bonuses for winning.
Johnson has set a high standard in recent years, winning 12 Chase races during his four championship seasons.
Only one driver has won the Chase without getting to Victory Lane in the final 10 races – Stewart in 2005.
Stewart has just one win this season but also has been one of the hottest drivers on the circuit during the second half of the year. Winning the Chase again – and without winning a Chase race – is not out of the question.
4. Denny Hamlin or Kyle Busch dominate, only to lose due to misfortune
Aside from Johnson, the two drivers most likely to go on a winning streak are the two Joe Gibbs Racing teammates in the Chase. Hamlin won six races during the regular season while Busch won three.
Either could dominate, winning three or more races over the coming weeks.
They both also are prone to mishaps, suffering a mechanical failure or wreck that could knock them out of contention.
If someone dominates the Chase with three or four wins, but loses the title due to misfortune, that’s another argument for adding more bonus points for winning races, especially during the Chase.
5. A non-Chase driver (read Dale Earnhardt Jr.) outperforms several of the Chase drivers
Every time expanding the field is mentioned, there is one name that automatically comes to mind – Dale Earnhardt Jr.
There is no question that NASCAR and fans want to see Earnhardt Jr. in the Chase. But he has made it just three times in the past six years and hasn’t been a factor since 2004. He finished last in the Chase in 2008 and has missed it the last two seasons at Hendrick Motorsports.
Conspiracy theorists believe that getting Earnhardt Jr. into the Chase is NASCAR’s primary motive for wanting to expand the field again.
But in truth, there are plenty of reasons for expanding, mainly getting more sponsors into the show and creating a greater possibility for an upset.
Several top drivers missed the Chase this year, including Daytona 500 and Brickyard 400 winner Jamie McMurray and 2009 Chase drivers Mark Martin, Juan Pablo Montoya, Kasey Kahne and Ryan Newman.
McMurray, Newman and David Reutimann each have won races this year and some believe they should have made the Chase instead of some of the top 12 that have not won.
If one or more of them step up their game and outperform some of the Chase drivers during the final 10 races, that’s a strong case for NASCAR expanding the field.
It might also give NASCAR some ammunition for making winning a prerequisite for qualifying for the Chase.
If the Chase is not as close and compelling as NASCAR and its fans hope, or if any of the above scenarios play out, NASCAR officials may be persuaded to shake up the championship format again.
