Surely you all know that classic Frank Sinatra song, "High Hopes." You know, the one that talks about “he’s got high, apple pie, in the sky hopes.” The Chairman of the Board recorded that for a movie in 1959 and then put it on his 1961 album. John F. Kennedy even used it for his theme song when he ran for president.
Well, 50 years later, I have high hopes for the 2010 NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup. Now, every year, the so-called experts say this is going to be the best Chase ever. Unfortunately, it’s turned out to be the same Chase as ever with Jimmie Johnson winning the past four consecutive years.
So here we are again with everyone again saying this will be the best Chase ever and we have a great lineup of drivers in it. Personally, I hope they are right. Before the season started, folks were saying Denny Hamlin would be the guy to step up to challenge Jimmie for the 2010 crown. You can’t say he’s not. Denny won his sixth race of the season Saturday night at Richmond International Raceway, so it certainly looks like it could be a real championship battle between those two.
I have a question for you. How can you take the top 12 Chase drivers, using the same point system, going to the same 10 tracks and not expect a different outcome? Just look at performance. Over the past few weeks, guys have certainly come and gone.
Most of us thought the Roush Fenway Racing camp had turned a corner. We saw signs they had their cars straightened out along with the new engine. They didn’t run very well Saturday night. They almost looked like they did earlier this year, when they were non-factors.
You’ve got to be able to win in the Chase to win the Chase. Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton and Jeff Gordon, for example, haven’t won a race this year. That right there is a clue to who has a shot to win the championship. You’ve got to be able to win races, plain and simple. To me, the contenders for the 2010 crown are Hamlin, Johnson, the Busch brothers, etc., who have won races and are at the top of the newly reset points.
Then stop and look at the tracks we are going to these next 10 races. There are some of these cats in the top 12 that run well at some of these next 10 tracks. There is only one cat, however, who runs well at all 10 tracks, and that’s Jimmie Johnson.
Do I think there is a pretty good chance that Denny can put a lot of pressure on Jimmie? Absolutely, but I still maintain unless there is a magic wand they can wave over the entire Chase field to fix all the problems, I just don’t see much of a change from the past four years.
The key for Denny, in my book, is to put pressure on Jimmie right away at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Now, the bad news in that game plan is that Denny was terrible in the spring race at Loudon and Jimmie wasn’t.
I really want an exciting Chase. I want to be kept on the edge of my seat right up to the checkered flag at Homestead in November. However, I am a realist, and I don’t think it will go that way. You have to look at how guys are running right now and how they are finishing. Jimmie has been consistent of late with two third-places finishes. Now they are going to his 10 favorite tracks.
Over the Labor Day weekend at Atlanta, Denny had an engine failure. Sure, that engine package was bad fast, but there were questions about its durability. Denny sat on the pole at Atlanta and really had the only car that could have beat Tony Stewart. The Gibbs camp learned quickly, though, that’s an engine combination they don’t want to use in the Chase.
In "High Hopes," Frank Sinatra would sing about that ant pushing that rubber tree or the ram butting the dam. That’s me, just like the ant and the ram, I have high hopes. At the same time, there is big part of me that says going to the same tracks with the same points, doing the same things is going to give us nothing but the same results.
If there will be changes to the Chase, you have to imagine we won’t know about them until after the season is over. Wouldn’t it be ironic if Matt Kenseth got hot and won the 2010 Chase without winning any races? Don’t forget the reason we have the Chase is because Matt blew away the competition and was so far out in front with an insurmountable points lead that he wrapped it up something like three races from the end but won only one race in 2003.
That was the springboard that motivated NASCAR to create the Chase format in hopes of making this last stretch run more exciting. If it were to happen with Matt winning the championship without a win in the Chase, NASCAR would definitely be forced to make changes, and we’d have our second Matt Kenseth rule.
I’ve told you many times there are things in the Chase that don’t appeal to me, but I understand why they did it. I understand why they created this 10-race playoff system. They wanted the last 10 races to be intense, intriguing and exciting, however, it just hasn’t happened so far. I think this is finally the year that once the season is over, changes will be made.
I’ve never liked the fact that once you get in the top 12, you are locked in. You can never be knocked out. You literally don’t have to show up in those last 10 races and you get credit for finishing 12th for the entire season. That’s just not right. I am in favor of some sort of elimination. You have to perform to stay in the Chase or you fall back in the pack with everyone else.
I also want to see attention given to the regular-season champion. Every year at the end of the 26 races, the points are reset and the regular-season points leader gets a smile, a pat on the back and a “thanks for playing” from NASCAR. Then NASCAR resets the leaderboard, and that’s where the bonus points for wins come into play.
Look at Kevin Harvick this year. He and that team have worked hard and long all season. They get to this point and then they aren’t even starting the Chase as our points leader. That’s just not right. So I want to see the regular-season champion get some kind of reward.
Maybe he should start the Chase in first place? Maybe he is rewarded with the first pit selection for all 10 races? Maybe he receives a big trophy and bigger check? I dunno, but the regular-season champ has earned it and deserves something. Taking a man’s point lead and points away from him is not fair. Reward the man.
Like I said, I sure hope this year's Chase is as exciting as everyone hopes it will be. It just seems to me to be business as usual. Everyone tries every week to win the race, Chase or no Chase. You can’t make your car run any faster or drive any harder.
The only urgency that makes Race 7 different from Race 27 is you know clock is ticking. There are only 10 races. You can pretty much figure you can get away with one bad race in the Chase. If you have two, well, you know you are toast. You can’t beat yourself and have any failures. Your goal is to average a seventh-place finish during the Chase to sit at the head table in Las Vegas.
