Three drivers, three races make Chase exciting
And then there were three.
After 33 races, NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup field has been narrowed to a trio of drivers with just three events remaining to determine a champion.
As predicted, Kevin Harvick continued his dominant performance on restrictor-plate tracks with a second-place video finish over his teammate Clint Bowyer at Talladega Superspeedway Sunday. Not only did Harvick elevate his restrictor-plate average finish to 2.75 for the season, he sliced 24 points from championship leader Jimmie Johnson’s advantage in the standings and 32 points on second-place Denny Hamlin.
Hamlin is currently 24 points ahead of Harvick and 14 points behind Johnson after salvaging a ninth-place finish on Sunday. Although Johnson’s teammate Mark Martin broke Hamlin’s draft as his No. 11 Toyota pushed ahead of the No. 48 Chevrolet in the final corner, Hamlin realizes the outcome could have been much worse.
“It’s what I asked for,” Hamlin said. “I asked for nobody to really get killed (in points) here this weekend and to let us settle it on the racetrack where our cars and our teams can make a difference and us drivers can make a difference. That’s what we got. We’ve got a tight one and I’m looking forward to the last three.”
The 38-point margin that stands between Harvick and Johnson is the tightest between first and third with three races remaining in the Chase since the format began in 2004. Even Johnson, who has won the last four championships, doesn't believe that any of the three teams holds an advantage going into the stretch.
“We've gone through seven races, and you can throw a blanket over the three of us,” Harvick said. “It's really going to just come down to dotting the Is, crossing the Ts, keeping that performance level where it needs to be.
“If you go to one of those three tracks, if it's your off week, you're in trouble.”
The preferred strategy is simple -- lead laps and win races. If a driver can’t finish first, a top-five is a must. Johnson has always “approached each race with the mentality that we needed to win.”
Particularly in 2007 when he trailed teammate Jeff Gordon by 68 points entering the final five races and won four of the events.
“It's really the same mentality,” Johnson said. “We need maximum points. Of course, it's a little bit more forgiving or easy on your team and yourself with a big points lead. But we don't have that this year. We're going to have to race, and we're ready for it.”
So what’s going to distinguish the 2010 champion from this trifecta come Homestead? Here’s how the drivers stack up:
Jimmie Johnson: The Hendrick Motorsports driver has more experience than any driver on the tour when it comes to winning the Chase. Johnson has won once at Texas Motor Speedway and four times at Phoenix International Raceway. He tied Carl Edwards for most laps led (113) at Phoenix in the spring before finishing third. Compared to many tracks, Johnson has led relatively few laps (117) in six of his 14 Texas starts but maintains a 10.1 average finish. Johnson’s Lone Star performance last fall was memorable. He collided with Sam Hornish Jr., losing 129 laps in the garage for repairs and inevitably finishing 38th -- tying his worst effort.
Homestead is the only unknown for Johnson. It’s one of four tracks on the current schedule where the No. 48 team has yet to win.
“Our Homestead performance has been getting better and better each year,” Johnson said. “I felt last year we had a chance to run with the lead group of guys and didn't need to, played it smart.”
Johnson has won two of the last three poles at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but his average start is a measly 19.3. He’s led laps in six of nine starts on the 1.5-miler and posted a career-best finish of second in 2004.
Denny Hamlin: The Joe Gibbs Racing driver enters the final three races knowing he’s the defending winner at both Texas and Homestead. While these were his only victories at each track, the confidence Hamlin has is huge.
While Hamlin’s qualifying effort at Texas hasn’t been as solid lately as when he started the Cup tour, his finishes of second and first in the last two races certainly make up for that. He’s led laps in four of his 10 starts and completed 99.7 percent of all laps raced at Texas.
If Hamlin has a weak link, it’s Phoenix. He hasn’t led a lap on the 1-mile flat track since spring of 2007. He’s led laps in just two of 10 events. While half of his starts were top-five finishes, Hamlin maintains an average finish of 11.6 at Phoenix - which includes a 30th-place finish he earned while recovering from knee surgery.
Hamlin’s average qualifying effort of 34th at Homestead is far from remarkable. But three of his five starts resulted in finishes of third or better. He’s led three races for a total of 91 laps and has been running at the finish of every Homestead race.
Kevin Harvick: The Richard Childress Racing driver not only carries the momentum of finishing second at Talladega and making considering gains on his fellow title contenders, he enters the final three races knowing that the No. 29 team was the most consistent throughout the regular season.
Harvick has yet to win at Texas, but is second only to Johnson is superspeedway competition this season. His last trip to the Lone Star State resulted in a seventh-place finish -- his seventh top 10 at the track. In 15 career starts, he’s led just four laps, but was running at the finish for every race and holds a 99.8-percent lap completion rate.
It’s been a while since Harvick has experienced the success he had at Phoenix when he swept both races in 2006. His 13th-place finish in the spring was the best in Harvick’s last three starts. Harvick’s led laps in just three Phoenix races but his lap completion rate is a solid 99.6 over 15 events. His average start of 18.7 has not precluded Harvick from posting three top fives and six top-10 finishes.
Expect Harvick to be a solid closer at Homestead, where he has completed every possible lap. While he has yet to win the season finale, he’s led laps in five on nine starts including 56 circuits last November when he finished third. Harvick’s average finish of 8.4 tops Johnson and Hamlin. Three of his four top-five finishes on the intermediate track have come in his last four starts. Don’t be surprised if Harvick doesn’t finally post that breakthrough win on Nov. 21.
Harvick made his intentions clear to Johnson and the No. 48 team on Sunday night.
“Everybody but them wants somebody else to win,” Harvick said. “I like Jimmie as good as anybody. But for the sake of the sport, one of the two of us needs to make something happen. I can promise you that.“
