So many drivers, so little time.
Mathematically, 14 drivers still are eligible for the three positions that have yet to be decided in the Chase for the Sprint Cup. And the final 12 positions may not be decided until the final lap of the Wonderful Pistachios 400 at Richmond International Raceway.
Certainly, a lot can happen over the 400 laps — and there could be just as many agendas as laps throughout Saturday night’s race.
Although Kevin Harvick is already comfortably in the Chase, his crew chief Gil Martin would love to add a fourth victory to the team’s win tally to match Kyle Busch's stats.
The backup plan? Offer an assist to Richard Childress Racing teammate Paul Menard and the No. 27 team. With a win, Menard — 20th in the points standings — would leapfrog over Denny Hamlin, who is currently 12th and holds just one victory. Menard also advances to a wild-card berth if either Dale Earnhardt Jr. or Tony Stewart should fall out of the top 10 in the points standings.
“If we can't win the race, if we can take somebody out to get the 27 in, we'll do it,” Martin said.
Could other organizations be tag-teaming on Saturday night?
In the Joe Gibbs Racing camp, Kyle Busch is more than willing to help his teammate Hamlin.
“I’m going to win, because if I win it locks him in,” Busch said emphatically.
Considering that Busch has won three of the past five races at Richmond, that strategy isn't out of the question.
While Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman qualified for two of the top eight positions in the top 10 in Atlanta, with three wins Brad Keselowski muscled his way into a wild-card spot — one of the two bonus positions added to the playoffs this season for a driver inside the top 20 in points based on wins and standings.
And Keselowski still can supplant the ninth-place Earnhardt or 10th-place Stewart by scoring 25 more points than the No. 88 or 23 more points than the No. 14. Neither Earnhardt nor Stewart has a win this season. Regardless of what happens Saturday night, Keselowski is a lock.
Earnhardt’s plan is to “just race naturally” and “let it flow.” Although Earnhardt has three wins at Richmond, he hasn’t posted a top five in the past five races and must finish at least 20th on Saturday to guarantee a spot in the Chase. He also can qualify for the Chase, no matter what any other driver does, if he finishes 21st or better and leads at least one lap or finishes 22nd or better and is the overall lap leader.
He said that lately he feels the team has been operating a bit too “conservatively,” while he would prefer to “let it all hang out.”
“If you get too cautious, you can put yourself in a lot of situations that aren’t good,” Earnhardt said. “I feel like I do a good job, not getting into a lot of trouble, get myself in situations that get me in the fence, get me spun out or racing around people that at certain times I should take more care of. I think I do a good job of that.”
But drivers can’t always control their destiny, as Junior discovered in May 2008 at Richmond when Kyle Busch dumped him in Turn 4 — two laps short of an anticipated Earnhardt win.
Stewart doesn’t buy into the hype of clandestine plans to eliminate the competition in the final race before the Chase. From the driver’s seat, Stewart doesn’t find the intensity of the September Richmond race to be different from the May romp.
“If anything, guys are more cautious during this because they know they can’t afford a mistake,” said Stewart, who'll be Chase-bound with an 18th-place finish or better. “So, I think it tends to lead it to be the opposite.”
Still, that doesn’t mean Stewart might not look at Juan Pablo Montoya the wrong way on Saturday night and find his No. 14 on a wrecker. Just ask Clint Bowyer, who tangled with Montoya last week at Atlanta.
Here are the 12 drivers who still have a shot at locking down one of the wild-card positions and what they need to do Saturday:
Denny Hamlin (12th in points standings, 42 points outside of top 10): With one win, Hamlin holds the second wild-card spot. His easy path to the Chase is with a win or if one of the drivers in the top 11 wins and he remains ahead of Menard or Marcos Ambrose in the point standings. He starts 28th on Saturday.
Paul Menard (20th, one win, 94 points outside of top 10): Menard can leapfrog over Hamlin by winning at Richmond. Should Keselowski supplant Earnhardt or Stewart, that also would open up a wild-card spot for Menard, who qualified 15th. Unfortunately, Menard never has finished higher than 16th at the 3/4-mile track.
Marcos Ambrose (21st, one win, 101 points out of top 10): First off, Ambrose would have to earn enough points to move inside of the top 20 in the standings to be eligible for a wild-card position. A win likely would vault him into that position and consequently over Hamlin. But Ambrose, who finished fifth in this race last year, would have to come from 33rd place to win.
David Ragan (23rd, one win, 114 points out of top 10): Ragan’s scenario is similar to that of Ambrose. Ragan qualified 20th, however, and finished fourth here in the spring.
AJ Allmendinger (13th, 11 points out of top 12): Allmendinger must win and gain 12 points on Hamlin. He also can qualify for a wild-card spot with a win if Keselowski ousts Earnhardt or Stewart. Allmendinger starts ninth Saturday.
Clint Bowyer (14th, 12 points out of top 12): Bowyer must win and gain 13 points on Hamlin. With a win, he too could qualify for a wild-card spot if Keselowski ousts Earnhardt or Stewart. Bowyer, who won here in 2008, rolls off fifth.
Greg Biffle (15th, 28 points out of top 12): Biffle needs to win and post a 29-point advantage over Hamlin. If Keselowski supplants Earnhardt or Stewart, a win would earn him the second wild-card spot. Biffle starts 14th on Saturday.
Martin Truex Jr. (16th, 33 points out of top 12): With a win and a 34-point advantage over Hamlin, Truex would earn a spot in the Chase. He could qualify for a wild-card spot with a win if Keselowski ousts Earnhardt or Stewart. Truex qualified 29th.
Kasey Kahne (17th, 42 points outside of top 12): With a win, Kahne clinches a Chase spot if he finishes 43 points ahead of Hamlin or if Keselowski ousts Earnhardt or Stewart. Kahne rolls off 12th.
Joey Logano (18th, 47 points outside of top 12): Along with a win, Logano would need Keselowski to knock Earnhardt or Stewart out of the top 10 and would need Hamlin, Logano’s teammate, to miss the show.
Mark Martin (19th, 49 points outside of top 12): Martin would have to win, and Keselowski would have to move into the top 10.
Juan Pablo Montoya (22nd, 59 points outside of 12, seven points outside of top 20): Montoya would have to win, move into the top 20, pray that Keselowski supplants Earnhardt and Stewart and that Menard finishes fifth or worse.
