If someone would have asked me at the beginning of the season to list my picks for the top 12, I would wager to say my list would be different today as we sit at the halfway mark for the 2011 Race to the Chase.
There are some guys in the top 12 currently that I would not have expected to be there back when we headed to Daytona. Conversely, there are guys who are not up there that surprise me.
I am surprised that the results for Dale Earnhardt Jr. have been as point-producing as they have. It’s great for him to be that high in the points. On the flip side, as good as he was one year ago, I am surprised that Denny Hamlin is not there yet.
Carl Edwards being up there where he is comes as no surprise. Just remember how strong he finished the season last year, particularly the last two races. Jimmie Johnson hanging as tough as he is comes as no surprise either.
As strong as Tony Stewart and teammate Ryan Newman started off the year, I thought they would have some wins under their collective belts by now. It’s a tribute to their persistence that they are has high as they are without either visiting Victory Lane. The reality is though, wins give you an insurance policy and both guys are near the cut-off of 10th place when it comes to the points situation, so they are in jeopardy.
Greg Biffle is another one that has me scratching my head. I thought his team's program would be much farther along than it is so far. So there are some nice surprises high up in the points right now, while at the same time there are some guys that have to be worried about how their season is going.
There is also a handful that I think you can go ahead and put a check mark by their name that they will be in the 2011 Chase. To me those five are Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson, Dale Jr., Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch. I feel they have done enough and are solid enough from now until Richmond in September, with or without the wins, to be in.
From there on back I think there will be a lot of pushing and shoving and a lot of uncertainty. For anyone sixth on back, if they stub their toe once in a race from here on out, it might literally take them four or five races to recover. That might be enough to put their season in jeopardy.
Now to confuse things even further, I don’t think any of them will fall out of the top 20 and they all are very capable of winning. Again, winning is the key. It gives you such an insurance policy if you would happen to fall out of the top 10 in points. If that were to happen, you still have a shot at the two wild-card spots.
Taking that a step further, I know a lot of guys are trying to figure out whether it will take just one win, which is hard enough to get, or if it will take two wins to guarantee you a wild-card slot. For instance, Brad Keselowski just needs to get inside the Top 20 in points (which I think) he will and then he has a legitimate shot at one of those wild-card spots.
I am not sure I have as much confidence that Regan Smith can rally back and make it happen, despite his win at Darlington. He’s 100 points out right now and that’s pretty tough to make up given the new points system. Now on the positive side of things, they are roughly 50 points out of the top 20. If they can make some good strides these next 13 weeks, they might have a shot.
At this point in time, if I had to place a bet on it, I would wager the driver who secures the 11th place spot will have two wins and the guy who gets that 12th and final Chase spot will have one win. I just think right now that’s what it is going to take to make the 2011 NASCAR Chase.
Jeff Gordon has a win under his belt. But once you think they have things moving forward and can contend for that all important second win, they seem to stub their toe and backslide. Trust me, the urgency to have that second win is going to ramp up and in a big way.
I firmly believe a second win will tip the scales in any driver's favor. I think there will be a lot of guys vying for that final spot with only one win. Right now, two wins before the cut-off in September seems to be the magic number.
Ever wonder what it's like to lead the field to the green flag of a NASCAR race? Wypall wipers is offering the opportunity to ride in the pace car during the Wypall 200 NASCAR Nationwide Series race at Phoenix. Check out Wypall's Facebook page for more details.
