Roush Fenway Racing had a huge advantage in 2008, but it's almost like they didn't progress. By the time we got into 2009, they didn't make any gains while others — like Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing — caught up and got ahead.
Obviously, there's a lot of things going on over there and you almost have to question whether they are oversaturated. There's no question multi-car teams have strength in numbers, but you almost get to a point where you are too strong in numbers. Last year, you had five RFR teams and it's no secret that they had two more, but they were named Yates Racing and Hall of Fame Racing. Did they spread themselves too thin?
Another problem they may have encountered last year was they over-engineered themselves in some cases. I was told that they hit on something during a test down in Florida and the drivers really liked how the car felt and drove. Well they came home and changed some things. Why did they do that? Why do you absolutely believe you can continue to make something better? There's nothing wrong with being aggressive, but sometimes you can outthink yourself, and I think RFR was a little guilty of that last year.
As close and competitive as things are in this sport, it is so easy to either not progress quick enough as it is to be overly aggressive and over-engineer things.
I still believe that Carl Edwards and his No. 99 team will end up being Roush's biggest title threat. There's no question you don't want to count out Greg Biffle and his group, and you better never count out Matt Kenseth and his team, but I tend to believe that Edwards will be the one at the forefront.
There was a lot of disappointments in 2009 and one of the biggest has to be David Ragan. He almost made the Chase in 2008, and he didn't even have a top-five finish in 2009. Across the board, RFR was down, but the No. 6 team looked to be down more than the rest. So it'll be interesting to see how he does in 2010.
Jack Roush is not a patient man, but he's a smart man. I don't see him making changes right out of the box but if they struggle early, he won't let things be status quo too long. Last year, all his teams struggled so no individual changes were needed. If one team struggles this year, he can diagnose the problem and make changes if needed.
Starting lineup
By Mike Harmon
Team #6
Driver: David Ragan (Finished 27th in the 2009 Cup standings, zero career Cup wins)
Crew chief: Donnie Wingo
Primary Sponsor: UPS
Ragan experienced the biggest downturn of any driver in 2009. He was the darling of the circuit in 2008, producing 14 top-10 finishes and six top fives to rank 13th in the final point standings. He failed miserably in his follow-up campaign, earning just two top 10s (again, down 12 top-10 runs!) while seeing his average finish drop precipitously. Ragan's average finish fell by 8.8 slots!
He started the season well (sixth at Daytona) and ran 17th in the second event of the year. I suspect that Ragan will be talked about in terms of "comeback drivers" as we roll into November.
Team #16
Driver: Greg Biffle (Finished seventh in the 2009 Cup standings, 14 career Cup wins)
Crew chief: Greg Erwin
Primary Sponsor: 3M
Biffle remains a fixture on my Fantasy Auto Racing video segments, and his No. 16 Ford has been one of the most consistent teams the past two season. He's earned 33 top-10 finishes (22 top fives) in the past two years, finishing third and seventh in the overall point standings in 2008 and 2009, respectively. Biffle did not post a win in 2009, his first full season on the circuit without a victory.
Team #17
Driver: Matt Kenseth (One time Cup champion, 18 career Cup wins)
Crew chief: Drew Blickensderfer
Primary Sponsor: Crown Royal
The former series champion started the 2009 season with a bang, producing back-to-back wins to open the campaign. He then proceeded to race 23rd or worse in four of his next six starts. Kenseth completed the year with 12 top 10s while averaging a 15.4-position finish, an average that was actually one position better than his 2008 efforts despite producing eight fewer top-10 finishes. He'd generated 42 top-10 finishes in the two years prior to last year's drop-off in production.
Look for him to charge back toward the top this season.
Team #99
Driver: Carl Edwards (Finished 11th in the 2009 Cup standings, 16 career Cup wins)
Crew chief: Bob Osborne
Primary Sponsor: Aflac
Edwards and his No. 99 Roush Fenway Ford experienced a downturn. His average finish dropped by 5.6 positions, and he failed to enthrall the masses with his patented backflip. Edwards did not record a win in 2009 following his remarkable run of nine Victory Lane trips in 2008. Few have been as consistent as he and his team has in recent years. I expect to see him charging toward more checkered flags this season.
Inside story
By Jorge A. Mondaca
