NASCAR: Five Drivers Most Likely To Win At Texas
Apr 9, 2016; Fort Worth, TX, USA; A view of the start of the Duck Commander 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
NASCAR will head to Texas Motor Speedway for the second race of the Round of 8. Check out five drivers who could win on Sunday.
The Round of 8 got off to an interesting start last weekend as Jimmie Johnson won his ninth career NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race at Martinsville, clinching his spot in the Championship 4.
This weekend, the Cup Series shifts to Texas Motor Speedway, where the second race of the Round of 8 will be held.
Texas is the fourth of five 1.5-mile tracks in the Chase and is often given high praise by the drivers that visit and compete at the venue. It’s similar to Charlotte Motor Speedway and Atlanta Motor Speedway as all three tracks feature 24-degree banking in their turns.
Last weekend, drivers like Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch and Carl Edwards fell into early holes in the Chase standings so this weekend, they’ll be looking for solid runs to even themselves with Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch and Joey Logano as just three drivers will be able to race into the Championship 4 on points.
It’s important to remember that the 2015 Texas Chase race served as one of just two Chase races where a non-Chaser came away with a victory last year.
Let’s have a look at five drivers who could win this weekend.
Aug 21, 2016; Bristol, TN, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) during the rain delayed Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
The Favorite: Kevin Harvick
Stats at Texas:
You may find it weird that a driver with no wins and just 116 laps led at Texas would be considered a favorite this late in the season, but this is Kevin Harvick we are talking about, and we know he’s capable of winning on any given weekend.
Harvick has never made it to Victory Lane at Texas, but he does have 15 top-10’s, which is third-most among active drivers. In the 2015 spring race, he led 96 laps but was passed by Jimmie Johnson late. In the 2015 Chase race, he drove with one hand for the final 94 laps due to a an issue with his shifter and still ended up finishing third.
Harvick has finished in the top-10 in seven out of the last nine races at Texas and has finishes in third or better in the last three out of four races. It also helps him since Texas is a 1.5-mile track–the kind of track that he tends to make a living racing on.
We’ve seen Harvick come back multiple time from bad outings in the Chase and he finished 20th last weekend at Martinsville. We’ve seen him absolutely dominate when he has to and I expect him to establish himself early this weekend.
Kevin Harvick is the favorite heading into Sunday’s race.
Sep 25, 2016; Loudon, NH, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup driver Jimmie Johnson during the New England 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
Contender No. 1: Jimmie Johnson
Stats at Texas:
Jimmie Johnson is easily the most successful driver to ever compete at Texas Motor Speedway. He has the most wins, top-5’s, top-10’s and laps led among active drivers and the best average finish among drivers with at least five races at the track.
Johnson’s first win came back in 2007. He won his next five in a span of seven races ranging from the 2012 Chase race to the 2015 Chase race. In fact, he’s won the last four Chase races at Texas.
Since 2012, Johnson has led at least 120 laps in five races and six of his last nine races have resulted in finishes of either first or second.
He’s known as the best 1.5-mile driver in NASCAR today as he’s won 26 races at such tracks–the most of all-time. He’s already won at two of those tracks this season (Atlanta, Charlotte) and will be looking for another win this weekend even though he already has a spot in the Championship 4.
Since the Chase began Johnson has been taking care of business at his best tracks, like Charlotte and Martinsville. Look for him to be a major contender this weekend at Texas.
Sep 25, 2016; Loudon, NH, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup driver Carl Edwards during the New England 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
Contender No. 2: Carl Edwards
Stats at Texas:
Carl Edwards became the first driver of the Round of 8 to fall into a hole in the Chase standings. After hitting the wall at Martinsville, he’s in a situation where he will need a win in the next two weekends to make it to the Championship 4.
Fortunately for Edwards, he’ll have a great shot at making it to Victory Lane at Texas this weekend. He’s won three races at the track and he has more wins at only Bristol as Texas serves as one of Edwards’ favorite venues to race at.
He won his first race there in 2005 and then swept the 2008 season, leading a combined total of 335 laps. That’s the last time he won at Texas, but has has had some great runs, like earlier in the season when he won the pole and led 124 laps before finishing seventh. Had he not had an issue he would’ve been a contender for the win.
With Edwards in the spot he is in, he will be desperate to stay out front and search for a win to get to the next round. He’s finished in the top-10 in the last four races at Texas and should be near the front all day long.
Oct 21, 2016; Talladega, AL, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Kyle Busch (18) drives during practice for the Alabama 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
Contender No. 3: Kyle Busch
Stats at Texas:
Kyle Busch is another great 1.5-mile track racer, and while he is above the cut line right now, he’ll be looking for a win so he can get back to Homestead and defend his championship.
Busch has won two races at Texas with the first coming in 2013 and the second coming earlier this season as he was able to seize the lead late and control the field for 34 laps before winning his second race of 2016. Six out of his last seven races at Texas have resulted in finishes of fourth or better.
Busch has had a solid Chase so far as he has four top-5’s and six top-10’s but, similar to last season, he hasn’t been the most talked about driver and has simply been earning great finishes to keep his Chase hopes alive.
His fifth-place finish at Martinsville has him in position to move on, but he became frustrated with his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates in the late stages of the race, which is something to watch for this weekend.
Regardless, expect Busch to come out and compete for the win on Sunday–something he usually always does at tracks like Texas.
Aug 28, 2016; Brooklyn, MI, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Chase Elliott (24) races during the Pure Michigan 400 at the Michigan International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
The Underdog: Chase Elliott
Stats at Texas:
While Chase Elliott was eliminated from the Chase in the Round of 12, he is still in the process of finishing up an impressive rookie season and is still looking for his first Cup Series win.
That’s where Texas comes in. Elliott has only competed in one Cup Series race at Texas, but he performed well, as he nearly took the lead late in the race and ended up earning a fifth-place finish. Elliott already has experience racing at Texas outside of the Cup Series though as he won his first Xfinity Series race at the track after leading 38 laps back in 2014.
Elliott has has been solid at 1.5-mile tracks this season as he has led 183 laps, finished in the top-10 five times and shown strength at places like Atlanta, Texas and Chicagoland.
While Elliott is not in the Chase anymore, he’s still competing for his first career Cup Series win. Since the current Chase format was adopted, a non-Chaser has won each fall race at Texas. Elliott will look to continue that streak this weekend.
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