NASCAR: Five Drivers Most Likely To Win At Charlotte
May 29, 2016; Concord, NC, USA; Pole winner Sprint Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr. (78) and driver Joey Logano (22) lead the pack to start the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
The first race of the Round of 12 is upon us as NASCAR heads to Charlotte. Take a look at five drivers who could win this weekend.
Last weekend at Dover, the Round of 16 ended as NASCAR’s 2016 Chase field was cut down from 16 drivers to 12. Tony Stewart, Kyle Larson, Jamie McMurray and Chris Buescher all saw the end of their chances at the championship as they became the first four drivers out.
This weekend, the Round of 12 begins, and over the course of the next three weekends, we’ll see the Cup Series move from Charlotte to Kansas and finally to Talladega, but let’s focus on the task at hand for Saturday.
Charlotte Motor Speedway is one of the most iconic tracks in the NASCAR circuit. Races have taken place there since 1960 with the legends of the sport leaving their mark on the 1.5-mile track over the years.
Earlier in the season, Martin Truex Jr. dominated the Coca-Cola 600, leading all but eight laps. As one of the premier 1.5-mile track racers throughout 2016, he’ll look to make it a season sweep. As a result of a new round beginning, all Chase driver points will reset to 3000.
Check out five drivers who could make it to Victory Lane on Saturday night.
All stats gathered from racing-reference.info.
Oct 2, 2016; Dover, DE, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr. (78) during the Citizen Soldier 400 at Dover International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
The Favorite: Martin Truex Jr.
Stats at Charlotte:
You could make the case that Martin Truex Jr. is the best 1.5-mile driver in NASCAR today. Throughout 2016, he has an average finish of 7.1 at such tracks with five top-10’s and two wins in seven races. He’s also led 817 laps at these tracks.
While he was able to capture a win at Chicagoland a few weeks back, his win of the season so far came in the form of Charlotte. Truex led 392 of 400 laps at the track for his first win of the year and earned a spot in the Chase.
This weekend, he’ll be driving the same car from that dominant win.
Watch out, everyone: @MartinTruex_Jr's car this weekend is the one he used to win at both the 600 and Chicagoland.
— Jeff Gluck (@jeff_gluck) October 6, 2016
As for the rest of his career at Charlotte, Truex has had his main highlights in the past two seasons. In 2015, he led 131 laps and ended up finishing fifth. Then he followed that up by finishing third in last season’s Chase race.
There’s no doubt that after a two-win Round of 16, he has the most momentum in the Cup Series. This weekend, he’ll look to dominate again and earn his spot in the Round of 8.
Martin Truex Jr. is the favorite heading into Charlotte.
Aug 21, 2016; Bristol, TN, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) during the rain delayed Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
Contender No. 1: Kevin Harvick
Stats at Charlotte:
Kevin Harvick–like Truex–is considered one of the best 1.5-mile racers in the Cup Series today.
Since 2010, Harvick has been arguably the best driver at Charlotte Motor Speedway. That year marked the beginning of a stretch where Harvick has logged 11 top-10’s out of 13 races. In the process, he has finished second three different times, including his last two outings at the track.
This stretch has also included all three of Harvick’s wins at the track. His first two came in the form of Coca-Cola 600 wins as Harvick won in 2011 and 2013. Then in 2014, he won the Chase race, leading a career-high 162 laps in the process.
If it hadn’t been for the dominant race out of Martin Truex Jr. earlier in the year, Harvick likely would’ve won this year’s 600 too.
Harvick was the only other driver that was able to capture a win in the Round of 16 as he made it to Victory Lane at New Hampshire. While he–like Truex–has let a lot of wins get away from him this season, his best performances have come in the Chase in the past few seasons.
Harvick will start from the pole Saturday night and you’ll likely see him near the front of the pack for the majority of the race.
Sep 25, 2016; Loudon, NH, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup driver Carl Edwards during the New England 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
Contender No. 2: Carl Edwards
Stats at Charlotte:
Carl Edwards is having arguably his best season since 2011. With two wins and six poles, he’s taking care of business on race weekends.
However, he’s been kind of quiet lately. His sixth-place finish at Loudon is his best finish of the Chase so far and his only top-10 since Michigan. Luckily for him, Charlotte is a track that he’s had plenty of success at in the past.
The highlight of his career there was winning the Coca-Cola 600 at the track last season after leading 25 laps, but Edwards has been consistent throughout his career. He has eight top-10’s in the last ten races at Charlotte and has an average finish of 10.9, which is the second best in the Cup Series.
Edwards is certainly one driver that we’ll have to watch in the Round of 12. He’ll start in the 10th position in the standings, which is below the cut line for this round. To add to that, the elimination race will serve as Talladega–a track he’s struggled at.
Charlotte will serve as a huge chance for Carl Edwards to secure a spot in the next round, and you should see him have a great weekend at a track he races well at.
Sep 25, 2016; Loudon, NH, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup driver Jimmie Johnson during the New England 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
Contender No. 3: Jimmie Johnson
Stats at Charlotte:
We can all agree on one thing: Jimmie Johnson is the best active driver at Charlotte. He’s proved that to us throughout the years.
Johnson has seven wins at the track to go along with 14 top-5’s and 18 top-10’s–the best among active drivers in each category. His first five wins at the track came in a span of just three seasons as he won five out of six races, including four straight, sweeping both the 2004 and 2005 seasons.
He’s led at least 100 laps in a race there five different times including totals of 263 in 2002 and 334 in 2004. In fact, Johnson had led laps at Charlotte in 24 out of 30 starts.
The issue for Johnson during this year’s Chase has been his pit road penalties. He’s had one in each of the first three races and has had a chance to win each weekend. His penalties at Chicagoland and Dover were particularly bad as they both happened at key points in the race.
If he can eliminate penalties this weekend, there’s no doubt he’ll be in the hunt for a win. Since the Chase started, he’s had a car capable of winning and he’s shown speed that we’re accustomed to seeing from Hendrick Motorsports cars.
Aug 19, 2016; Bristol, TN, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Chase Elliott (24) during practice for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
The Underdog: Chase Elliott
Stats at Charlotte:
Chase Elliott has only raced at Charlotte twice in his Cup Series career–once last season when he only appeared in five races and once earlier this season. While that eighth-place finish in the spring of 2016 is his only real highlight there, it’s his 1.5-mile racing that gives him a chance this weekend.
1.5-mile tracks have definitely been one of Elliott’s strengths this year. He has five top-10’s in seven 1.5-mile races this season with his best outings coming at Texas (5th) and Chicagoland (3rd).
But besides that, it’s his momentum and his performance in the Chase so far that sets him apart from the rest. Elliott has earned two third-place finishes in the Chase and would’ve won at Chicagoland had it not been for a late caution with just four laps to go.
Then at Loudon, he ran in the top-5 for most of the day before fading in the final laps of the race.
Hendrick Motorsports has been better in the Chase, and Elliott has been quiet but consistent. Look for him to stay near the front again this weekend.
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