Math simple, emotions not going into last-chance Richmond race
The math is pretty simple, really, but the emotions are not heading into Saturday night's final race of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series regular season.
Fourteen drivers are already locked into the Chase for the Sprint Cup, which begins next weekend at Chicagoland Speedway.
Two drivers -- Ryan Newman and Greg Biffle -- right now hold the final two Chase transfer spots going into Saturday night's Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway.
Two other drivers -- Clint Bowyer and Kyle Larson -- can knock Newman and/or Biffle out on points, depending on how all four finish in the race.
Newman leads Biffle by 19 points now, Biffle leads Bowyer by 23 points and Bowyer is a single point ahead of Larson. They are the only four drivers who can race their way into the Chase Saturday night by virtue of points. And 15 more drivers can qualify for the Chase only if they win.
All of which should set the stage for a wild battle under the lights at the 0.75-mile short track. And drivers are as curious as fans and the media are about what ultimately will happen once the green flag falls.
"I don't know that I could really forecast what will happen," said Carl Edwards, who is locked in by virtue of two race victories this season, one at Bristol and a second on the Sonoma road course.
"It is pretty wide open. It could go a number of ways. If weather were to become a factor I think you will see insane strategy and really aggressive restarts. You could see people doing a lot of blocking to stay out front. At the end of the day, if a guy that has an opportunity to win the race -- that needs to win the race to be in the Chase, if he has an opportunity I can't imagine him holding back anything."
Edwards can afford to be relaxed. He's in the Chase no matter what. And he was fastest in the final Happy Hour practice round at RIR, lapping the 0.75-mile short track at 121.863 miles per hour.
Of course, not every driver is as sanguine about his championship prospects as Edwards.
"Desperation has definitely settled in," said Bowyer. "It doesn't matter, though -- it is what it is. You have to go out there and race as hard as you can. There's nothing you can do. You can go out and give it our all -- it's going to take a team effort. The good news is our hot rod is pretty fast."
As for Larson, who has only a remote chance of making it into NASCAR's playoff round, he plans to race the way he normally does. "You can't be dirty," he said. "Just be as aggressive as you can without really doing anything stupid and making anybody too mad."
Or maybe not.
"When it comes down to the end of the race I'm going to definitely try to get all I can get," said Larson, who was ninth in Happy Hour. "Right now I don't feel, I guess I really don't ever feel any pressure. Maybe there is less pressure since I actually know what I have to do and that is to get a win."
Biffle concurred.
"You still have to answer to your sponsor and your team and all the fans and everything else if you just start playing demolition derby," said Biffle.
With the race on the line, Biffle said it would be acceptable to move another driver out of the way to win, but not to wreck him in the process.
"You'll try to do the bump and run or try to move a guy out of the way, but you still have to keep it within reason," Biffle said.
Then again, stuff happens.
It did last year in this race, when Michael Waltrip Racing was caught and heavily punished by NASCAR for trying to manipulate the outcome of the race.
In fact, Newman was briefly knocked out of the Chase after last year until NASCAR interceded and put he and Jeff Gordon in and tossed MWR's Martin Truex Jr. out.
Asked if he is worried about more shenanigans on Saturday night, Newman allowed as how he is.
"I think it's a concern. I would be naive if I said it wasn't a concern," Newman said Friday afternoon at RIR. "But I think after what happened last year, the magnifying glasses are getting a little bit tighter than they used to be and that we'll have a good race and that it would be good for our sport to not have what happened last year in any form or fashion happen this year, and have a great race here because it is a great race track."
VIDEO: Brad Keselowski wins the pole at Richmond
